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São Paulo, 19 - Merrill Lynch has upgraded Brazil to overweight in its emerging-market debt portfolio, citing "a near term correction that offers buy opportunities."

In a report Monday, the investment bank said its "baseline strategy" remained unchanged.

"For now, we still see the market´s behavior as primarily a liquidity story and less a fundamentals-driven story," the Merrill Lynch report said.

"In the very near term, the market may still see a bit more downside before it stabilizes, but we are confident that given the ample liquidity conditions, buyers will soon re-appear," said Merrill Lynch.

"To better capture the next leg of this run up, we up Brazil, Uruguay and Venezuela to overweight, and we downgrade our long-standing overweights of Russia and Colombia to marketweight."

Rio de Janeiro, May 16 (<a href=quote.bloomberg.com>Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real reversed losses to gain as importers took advantage of its four-day, 4.3 percent decline against the dollar to bring in export earnings.

The real rose 0.8 percent to 2.9425 per dollar at 4:07 p.m. New York time. Some banks bought dollars to protect themselves against weekend political developments that might drive the exchange rate when trading opens next week, prompting the real to jump between gains and losses today. Mexico's peso rose.

When the real rubs up against 3 per dollar, exporters bring in dollars,'' said Joao Medeiros, a partner at Pioneer Corretora de Cambio Ltda., a Sao Paulo currency brokerage that handles about a third of all foreign exchange trading in Brazil's spot market. When it's about 2.80, the opposite happens, the importers buy goods from abroad -- this is holding the currency in the range.''

Earlier, the currency fell as much as 1 percent on investors' concern a slowing U.S. economy may limit exports to the world's largest economy and the supply of investment capital. Increased flows of export earnings increases demand for the real, helping it rise against the dollar.

Also supporting real was a declaration by the president of Brazil's central bank that the country's 26.5 percent benchmark interest rate won't be cut until the inflation rate falls.

The time to lower rates will be determined by the rate of inflation,'' Henrique Meirelles told Madrid's daily El Pais while in Spain for meetings with Latin American central bankers. There will be no lowering of interest rates until inflation has been lowered.''

The real has gained 20 percent in 2003, the best performance of the 59 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. With its May 13-15 slide, the real will see its first weekly decline in 13.

Rates

If rates were to fall, the incentive to borrow dollars abroad to invest in Brazilian government securities will fall. So far this year about $5 billion of foreign debt has been sold abroad, most of it by banks taking advantage of low rates outside of the country, U.S. benchmark rates are at four-decade lows, to invest at four-year high yields at home.

While Brazil's benchmark inflation rate slowed in April to 0.97 percent from 1.23 percent in March, the 12-month rate in April rose to a seven-year high of 16.77 percent from 16.57 percent a month earlier.

Before today, the real had fallen 3.2 percent on the week on investors' expectations Meirelles and other members of Brazil's national monetary policy committee might lower rates after meetings May 20 and 21.

Weekends, Banks

The real jumped between gains and losses today.

Beyond the conflicting U.S. economic reports, the real was weighed down by some banks' purchases of dollars as a hedge against weekend political events, some traders said.

Investors in Brazil often seek to protect themselves against weekend developments, especially where politics, often played out in the nation's weekly news publications, is involved.

A couple of banks are concerned we might get some bad political news over the weekend,'' said Mario Battistel, head of foreign exchange trading at Novaca Corretora de Cambio SA, a Sao Paulo currency brokerage. They'd rather lock in their dollars now than risk having to buy them at a steeper price next week.''

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's pension and tax bills that promise to curb deficit spending have stirred up opposition within and from without his ruling coalition.

The bill to overhaul the pension system, which aims to reduce the systems deficit that now stands at 5.5 percent of Brazil's gross domestic product, seeks to increase workers' contributions while cutting the government's funding liabilities.

Brazil's benchmark 8 percent bond maturing in 2014 gained 1.63 cents to 88.31 cents on the dollar, its first gain in three sessions, paring the yield to 10.91 percent, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Earlier, it fell as low as 85 cents on the dollar, its lowest since April 28. The bond rose to a record 91.75 on May 13.

Mexico

The Mexican peso strengthened for the first day in three as investors took advantage of its two-day, 3.2 percent decline to buy dollars.

The peso rose 14.05 centavos, or 1.4 percent, to 10.2965 per dollar from 10.4370 per dollar yesterday.

Some investors bought the currency after its two-day slide, remaining confident Mexico's economy will rebound in 2003 after two years of slow growth and that inflation will be kept in check. Central Bank President Guillermo Ortiz repeated the goal of holding inflation to 3 percent plus or minus 1 percentage point this year in a speech in Seville, Spain.

Still, rates on the benchmark 28-day Treasury bill dropped to a historic low of 4.9 percent in the May 13 weekly auction of government debt, reducing investors' incentive to buy Mexican debt, said Bard Luippold, a currency analyst with Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York.

``The weakening trend could continue in Mexico and today is just a breather in front of the weekend,'' Luippold said.

Colombia

Colombia's peso was headed for its biggest decline in almost four months after the central bank left lending rates unchanged and called off the monthly auctions of government securities that have strengthened the currency 4 percent since February.

The peso fell for the first day in three, losing 1.5 percent to 2,849.5 per dollar from yesterday. The currency last had a bigger one-day loss on Jan. 27, when the currency fell to record low of 2,980 against the dollar.

The bank, which has sold $600 million of the options in three monthly sales since February, won't hold a sale in June. The peso has risen 4 percent since the bank's first sale Feb. 28.

``The exchange rate remains at a competitive level for Colombian exports,'' the bank said in a statement.

The bank suspended the next options sale to help halt a recent strengthening of the currency that prompted President Alvaro Uribe to warn that its rapid climb would hurt Colombian exports.

Cone

Argentina's currency plunged for a second day against the dollar after the country's next president said his government won't cater to business interests.

The peso plunged 2.5 percent to 2.89 per U.S. dollar, after losing 1.2 percent yesterday.

Nestor Kirchner spoke after his presidential challenger, Carlos Menem, withdrew from the race ahead of a runoff election weekend.

Chile's peso reversed early declines to rise 0.1 pecent to 705.05 per dollar from 706.05 per dollar yesterday. Peru's new sol was little changed at 3.4759 per dollar from 3.4758 per dollar yesterday. Venezuela fixed it bolivar at 1,598 this year. Last Updated: May 16, 2003 16:10 EDT

Sao Paulo, May 16 (<a href=quote.bloomberg.com>Bloomberg) -- Brazil's government said it will finance infrastructure projects in neighboring nations in its biggest push to date to boost regional economies and increase its influence.

Brazil, South Americas' biggest economy, is close to signing agreements with Venezuela to finance the petrochemical sector and with Peru, Trade and Industry Minister Luiz Fernando Furlan told business executives in Germany, according to a statement provided by his office. This month, the government said it will create a $1 billion fund to finance bilateral trade with Argentina through BNDES, the development bank, and finance $600 million in roads and other projects in Bolivia.

The plan, which will use Brazilian taxpayers' money to spur their neighbors' economies, underscores the importance President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva places on increasing Brazil's regional influence to better negotiate trade accords with the U.S. and Europe, analysts said. Even as Lula crafts tax and budget policies to win the confidence of international investors, the former trade union organizer hasn't abandoned his often-stated goal of making Latin America more independent.

If Brazil really wants to exercise a role of leadership in the region, it will have to pay a price,'' said Luciano Dias, a political scientist at Brasilia-based Goes & Consultores. Their line of thought is `if I make my neighbor grow, get richer, he will buy more in my country, he will be a better market for my goods and if he is poor I have to help him grow.' This is the same logic for the Marshall plan.''

Brazil, whose $500 billion economy is bigger than all other countries in South America combined, has had similar projects in the past, with plans to fund road and bridge construction with Argentina. Some proposals by former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso never got off the ground, Dias said. Last Updated: May 16, 2003 16:47 EDT

Brazzil

Brazil's imperialism is generally overlooked by Brazilians. The boundaries of Brazil were created mainly by force of arms and sometimes by diplomatic guile, backed up by the saying that "possession is nine-tenths of the law." More recently Brazil took over territory belonging to Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru

John Fitzpatrick

About a week after the Iraqi regime collapsed I was passing the American consulate in São Paulo and saw a small group of protesters standing in the middle of the road. There were waving placards bearing messages like "Sound your horn if you are against the war" or holding up posters in which President George Bush was portrayed wearing a Hitler-like moustache. Obviously none of them knew that Bush's father, an air force pilot, had been shot down during the Second World War fighting against Hitler and his like. The protesters were chanting something like: "Bush nazista/Estados Unidos país imperialista".1 I stopped and spoke to them and it quickly became apparent that their lack of knowledge was not confined to World War II, but also to the history of their own country.

They were also convinced that, after subduing Iraq, the US was intent on invading the Amazon. "Why?" I asked. "To get their hands on all the oil and drugs there", was the reply. They were young and idealistic so there is no point in berating them here. However, they disputed my view that the Amazon had only ended up in "Brazilian" hands, as opposed to remaining in "Indian" hands, because Brazilian governments had consolidated and expanded claims by the Portuguese colonial rulers. The Brazilians had acted exactly like imperialists by invading the territory and using violence. Why not "O Brasil país imperialista" I asked.

Brazil's own imperialistic past is generally overlooked here. While it is acknowledged that 19th century Brazil was ruled by Emperors, the corollary, i.e. that the country had imperial desires is ignored. As the Roman, Russian/Soviet and Ottoman empires showed, an empire does not have to be scattered across the world but can be land-linked, as was the Brazilian case.

The fact that the Portuguese royal family fled to Brazil in the early 19th century to escape Napoleon is often cited as one of the factors which helped unify this vast country. The presence of the monarchy is generally regarded as one of the reasons why Brazil did not fragment into separate countries, as was the fate of the Spanish empire. This may be true but the boundaries of present-day Brazil were created mainly by force of arms and sometimes by diplomatic guile, backed up by the saying that "possession is nine-tenths of the law."

Broken Treaties—Bandeirantes on the Move

Right from the beginning of the so-called Discoveries, the Portuguese broke the Treaty of Tordesillas (1494), which was supposed to divide the New World between Spain and Portugal. The Brazilians subsequently superceded the Portuguese claims. The bandeirantes—brave adventurers or murderous exploiters depending on your point of view—who set out on expeditions from São Paulo to find slaves and gold, wandered at will across half of South America, claiming their right to its resources.

Recent research has shown that most of the participants in the bandeiras (bandeirantes expedition) were bona-fide Brazilians, generally of mixed Indian and European blood, rather than European pioneers. The power was still Portugal but the Brazilians were the willing participants. Even today gold prospectors and cattle raisers will go where they like, regardless of boundaries, laws or the presence of established Indian populations.

In the last three decades of the 20th century the military government attempted to people the Amazon region by mass migration, mainly from the Northeast. Roads were built, cattle rearing and other agricultural methods encouraged and the forest was exploited for its resources. In purely statistical terms, the policy was a success and the population increased from four to 10 million between 1970 and 1991. In terms of the destruction of the environment and the pressure on the Indian population, it was a failure.

Thankfully, the most recent governments have realized this and are trying to contain the damage although, sadly, they do not have the financial resources to do what should be done. Perhaps the United States might be able to help them although this is such a touchy matter here that it is unlikely.

Centralized Power

It is also interesting to note how during Brazil's history any attempts at challenging the central government have been repressed, usually savagely. The brutal destruction of Canudos just over a century ago2, the attack on the slave settlement of Palmares in Alagoas in the late 17th century and the crackdown on the revolt in Recife in 1824 show this. In all cases, the leaders were executed or murdered, as the Luso-Brazilian and Brazilian state showed its refusal to accept any challenge to its authority.

As recently as 1932, federal forces attacked São Paulo and crushed a revolt against the government of Getúlio Vargas. The aftermath of this was not so violent, but São Paulo people are reminded of these events every time they pass a huge obelisk, similar to the Washington monument, erected in memory of those days outside the state assembly building, next to Ibirapuera Park.

Brazil Wins—Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru lose

I would like to take this opportunity to highlight some more recent examples of how Brazil took over territory belonging to other countries—Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru. In the first case it was done through war and in the others by stealthier but, at times violent, means. These actions may not conform to a strict definition of imperialism but the end result was the same.

In 1864, Brazil ganged up with Argentina and Uruguay against Paraguay. This is not the place to go into the reasons for the so-called War of the Triple Alliance, a war in fact caused by belligerent Paraguay, which even invaded Brazilian territory. Most of the fighting by the allies was done by Brazilian forces. At times it was a David and Goliath contest with the Paraguayans giving the Brazilians a bloody nose, but the Brazilians eventually won.

The cost was high on both sides. Brazil lost 50,000 men and Paraguay was devastated. As Edwin Williamson puts it: "Paraguay had been all but destroyed as a nation: the population had been halved by the ravages of warfare and disease, leaving mostly women, children and old people; large tracts of territory were annexed by Argentina and Brazil, who had agreed secret protocols to that end in their treaty of alliance."3 The Brazilian historian Jorge Caldeira says that in order to end the war and kill the Paraguayan leader, Solano Lopez, "it was necessary to destroy the neighboring country."4

It is difficult to find matching figures, but it is generally agreed that at least half the population of Paraguay, and most of the adult men, were killed. According to the Encyclopaedia Britannica the population of Paraguay, which amounted to 1,337,439 at the start of the war, was reduced to less than 250,000 by the end of the conflict in 1870, of whom only 28,746 were men. 5 A more recent Brazilian account says the Paraguayan population fell from 406,000 in 1864 to 231,000 in 1872.6 Another account says that, of a population of 800,000, only 194,000 were left alive at the end of the war, of whom only 2,100 were men aged over 20.7

Brazil and Argentina forced Paraguay to hand over a slice of its territory amounting to around 142,000 square kilometers. Of this, 62,325 square kilometers went to Brazil and now forms part of Mato Grosso do Sul state. Brazilian troops occupied the country until 1876. However, by breaking the secret protocols with Argentina and signing a separate treaty with Paraguay, Brazil annoyed its erstwhile ally. It also had to give up its dream of absorbing Paraguay which, along with Uruguay, became, in effect, buffer zones between Brazil and Argentina.

In the long run, though, Brazil emerged the winner. Twenty-five years later, Brazil managed to win a large chunk, measuring 13,680 square miles, of the disputed Missiones territory from Argentina. This time it used diplomatic means and the arbiter, who ruled in Brazil's side, was none other than the US President Grover Cleveland. I wonder what the protesters outside the US consulate would say about this.

Even today there is a big Brazilian population in Paraguay, particularly in the Foz de Iguaçu region and it would not surprise me if over the coming decades it increased and the Brazilians started a subtle take over of that part of the country. This was what happened in the case of Bolivia, which also ended up losing part of its land to Brazil. In this case, Brazil used the presence of thousands of Brazilian rubber tappers who had started arriving in the Bolivian territory of Acre in the last decades of the 19th century. These Brazilians eventually formed a majority of the population and revolted against Bolivian rule.

At one point, the Brazilians expelled the Bolivian governor leading to intervention by Bolivian troops. In 1902 there was another revolt, this time backed by the governor of Amazonas state, an experienced soldier, who provided military and financial support to the rebels. Bolivia was unable to resist and in 1904 handed over 73,000 square miles of its territory in exchange for access to the Madeira river, US$ 10 million and a pledge by Brazil to build a railway on the right bank of the Madeira, thus giving the Bolivians access to the Atlantic via the Amazon8.

Rio-Branco—Border Baron

Peru was unhappy with the Acre settlement, since it also claimed part of the land. After almost a decade of negotiations on fixing borders, the Peruvians agreed to split the disputed territory. Once again Brazil benefited from the presence of a large Brazilian population and received 63,000 square miles while Peru obtained less than 10,000 square miles. The man who was responsible for this amazing increase in the size of the country was the Brazilian foreign minister, Baron Rio-Branco. In just 15 years he added around 342,000 square miles of territory to Brazil, an area larger than the whole of France. As E. Bradford Burns put it: "The Baron of Rio-Branco carried to a successful conclusion four hundred years of Luso-Brazilian expansion from the Atlantic Ocean to the Andes Mountains." 9

In 1900, Brazil also managed to win a claim of 101,000 square miles of Amazon territory which France claimed was part of French Guiana. Mediation by Switzerland supported the Brazilian case. Other agreements were made with neighbors such as Venezuela, Colombia, Surinam and British Guiana and nowadays Brazil has no territorial disputes. Considering Brazil's amazing success in expanding its frontiers, its neighbors must have been delighted to reach deal even if they did have to give up some territory.

Against this background, I think that if the name of the game is to point a finger at one country and accuse it of imperialism—assuming that imperialism is necessarily a bad thing—then our protestors outside the American consulate should take a look at themselves first.

1-- Literally "Bush is a Nazi/ The US is an imperialist country". Since Brazilians are incapable of pronouncing a word which ends in a consonant, Bush was referred to as "Bushy" thereby conjuring up the image of a cuddly little soft toy creature rather than a Nazi imperialist. 2-- For more on this see my article in Brazzil in October 2002 3-- The Penguin History of Latin America 1992 4-- História do Brasil, 1997 5-- Volume 17, 1962 edition 6-- História Concisa do Brasil, Borsi Fausto, 2001 7-- The South American Handbook, 1986 8-- Much of this information comes from "Amazônia Brasil" published by Horizonte Geográfico, 2001 9-- A History of Brazil, 1993

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações—  www.celt.com.br, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br

• The author has written about Canudos for Brazzil magazine: www.brazzil.com

Related sites: U.S. Consulate in São Paulo www.consuladoamericanosp.org.br

Reuters, 05.13.03, 12:33 PM ET By Denise Luna RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (Reuters) - After decades of bankrolling growth at home, Brazil's National Development Bank is turning into an instrument of Latin American integration in the hands of the country's new center-left government. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has said exports and trade ties are key priorities as Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, aims to assert itself as leader of a region most of whose economies are much worse off than Brazil's. "Apart from fulfilling its traditional role, the bank will be an instrument of South American integration," BNDES Vice-President Darc Costa told Reuters before going to Argentina to discuss a new credit line to boost trade. Jose Augusto de Castro, director of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association, was only cautiously optimistic about planned financing of neighboring countries' exports. "From the economic point of view this only strengthens our competitors," he said, although politically, he added, there were more advantages to the BNDES' new role. The government has promised $2.6 billion of BNDES credit lines to Venezuela, Bolivia, Argentina and Uruguay. The loans are designed to support mutual trade or to fund infrastructure expansion, as in gas-rich Bolivia. The BNDES, whose credit portfolio is 119 billion reais ($42 billion) and whose planned financing for this year is 34 billion reais, will also take part in a regional joint effort to increase exports to other countries. Set up in 1952 by President Getulio Vargas to promote Brazilian industry, the bank financed industrial and agricultural development. In the 1990's, the BNDES spearheaded Brazil's privatization drive, a process that is unlikely to continue under Lula, analysts say.

LARGER LATAM BLOC FOR FTAA TALKS De Castro said the new government was apparently not only trying to boost trade in the region, weakened by years of economic crises, but also create a wider Latin American bloc to defend its position better in talks on a U.S.-proposed Free Trade Area for the Americas. "That way, the financing makes sense," de Castro said. Developing Latin American countries fear a trade pact with the U.S. and Canada may expose their weaker economies to what they see as unfair competition and cause an industrial slump. Brazil is a key member of the Mercosur trade bloc which also includes Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, with Bolivia and Chile as associate members. BNDES' announcement last month of its entry into the Andean Development Corporation, replacing Brazil's Treasury, shows the country's interest in expanding its role beyond Mercosur. Its stake in the organization, which borrows funds abroad for infrastructure projects, will rise from 2.5 to 20 percent, making the BNDES its biggest single shareholder. Brazil is only an associate member of the corporation which has up to 200 planned regional projects worth about $24 billion to be financed. The Andean Community includes Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela. One of the biggest projects is a $1 billion credit line for bilateral trade between Brazil and indebted, recession-hit Argentina. Bilateral trade peaked at $20 billion a year in the 1990's but now is less than half of that. BNDES' Costa also plans to study infrastructure projects in Argentina and possible joint work in textiles, automaking, petrochemicals and food for export to other countries. The percentage of Brazil's exports which go to other South American countries has fallen to 16 percent so far this year, from 17 percent in 2002 and 26 percent in 1998.