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I would like to present VHeadline readers with commentaries on the Venezuelan political situation, hoping to transmit the concern of many of my countrymen about the future of our country, for the benefit of those who do not already have a frozen position regarding our political problems.

In this first installment, I would like to list, first of all, the theoretical components of totalitarian regimes and of totalitarian leaders. They are mostly taken from literature and I make no claim to being original.

What is Totalitarianism?

Briefly, the exercise of limitless political power, or the attempt at doing that.

A totalitarian regime usually exhibits some of the following characteristics:

Strong Nationalism

Promotion of class struggle

Pronounced Statism

Collectivism prevailing over Individualism

Existence of "myths"  and "religious creeds" as in the Fascist "The Ten Commandments"

Considering the nation as equal to the government and government equal to a Supreme leader

The existence of groups for the defense of the system

A progressive replacement of the professional Army by paramilitary groups, as in Cuba, China and Communist Russia.

In turn the totalitarian leader exhibits some of the following characteristics (after Robert Tucker and Hanna Arendt in "Political Leadership", Univ. Pittsburg, 1986):

The Leader sits at the center of the movement

He survives by spinning intrigues and constantly changing personnel

His will is.... the Law

Remains secure not because his superior gifts about which his inner circle has no illusions but because without him everybody is lost

The Leader does not tolerate criticism

The Leader has the monopoly of explanations therefore seeming to be the only person who knows what he is doing

The Leader is infallible. Therefore he has no need to tell the truth

The totalitarian leader dominates the decision making process

The system rarely survives the Leader.

In addition to these theoretic models, I would like to add some reflections by James MacGregor Burns on what true leadership means:

Leadership is collective. One man leadership is a contradiction in terms since a symbiotic relationship between leader and the whole of society, without exclusion, is required.

Leadership is dissensual. This requires respect for dissenters and the acceptance of conflict

Leadership is causative. It produces events and creates institutions that will survive the Leader.

Leadership is not destructive.

In my second commentary I will try to describe the step by step political involution suffered by the government of Mr. Chavez.

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.  In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort.  You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email ppcvicep@telcel.net.ve

www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, January 30, 2003 - 1:41:09 AM By: Almira Atencio

Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2003 21:44:40 -0400 From: Almira Atencio atencioalmira@hotmail.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Re: K.D. Willke and Gustavo Coronel

Dear Editor: Reference K. D. Wilkie's letter directed at Gustavo Coronel(www.vheadline.com). He is absolutely right about the unequal development of the economy of  our country(www.vheadline.com), circumstances that have high incidence in  opportunities for Venezuelan's represented in better  salaries as a right, independent of racial or sex differences.

• Better and qualified  education should be the only measure used to distinguish between one worker and another.

Venezuela's democratic governments have  increased politic instability by wasting public resources in  bureaucracy to dominate power with its own people ... this has led the country to impoverishment and to deny to Constitutent representatives an  appropriate economic plan in order to obtain distribution of the PIB that  would help  solve poverty in our country and to seek economic development.

Chavez approved 49 laws, which were almost all unconstitutional in their articles ... these were the  instruments that would lead him to an  economic plan of development for his revolution for the poor .... he certainly is not taking the path he tells the international community he is ... he does not accept governability principles that are obligations in a democratic country where different interests must be attended to.

The President does protects poor people ... but only those who are  are members of a cooperative group called "Circulos Bolivarianos" (really composed of people who havealways been  members of the socialist group of unemployed people because of its lack of education and by people whose situation is of misery).

The mission of this group  is to protect his revolution ... several from these groups are in prison for killing people in a pacific march on April 11 ... they had guns and they announced to the media that they had to kill everybody because they had to protect revolution.

What is happening in our country?  Because of this, the military said they would not obey the President against civilians. After this, the President renounced. The President's politics,  revolution condemns the state to an absolute domination  of the state, totalitarianism, ideology pragmatism, continuous politic polarization, just like in Cuba. His principle  command  of violence and personal insecurity has misled  him from his  essential mission of the economy.

Our country is considered a high risk for about three years. Capital markets practically do not exist. Enterprises have gone broke. Labor rights have been defended in a clear fight against private enterprises.

Violence is the manual to govern the state. Federal states cannot create work for the regions because the central  state does not want to give them their state budget, just because the governors are not of the revolution.

"Do you still believe the President is doing the correct with us as citizens."  The President will not accept to hear the necessities of organized groups, like the business federation and the strongest trade union in the country.

Education is impossible in this climate and so are equal opportunities.

I would like to offer you Daniel J. Boorstin's opinion from his book: The decline of radicalism: "In the long run, our ability to raise  our American standard  of living will depend on our ability to remove menaces to our health and peace of body and mind , which come from the dissatisfactions and lack of satisfactions of men anywhere.  Equity  in a standard of living society  meant the right  to be educated together with and in the presence of other Americans (everyone has to be benefited)."

The President's plan was good when he sold it to us in 1997: equity for all, opportunities for all. But,  this is not the plan he had in the year 2002.

My respects, Almira Atencio (lawyer specialized in public administration, international finance) atencioalmira@hotmail.com

www.sfgate.com CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER, Associated Press Writer Thursday, January 30, 2003
(01-30) 00:35 PST CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) --

Venezuelan opposition leaders accused President Hugo Chavez of threatening the nation's bankers to make them abandon a general strike aimed at toppling him.

The National Banking Council said Wednesday that its members will return to normal operating hours on Monday. For two months, thousands of people have waited in long lines while banks opened just three hours a day. Other sectors, including workers in the state oil company, will remain on strike.

"This is a government that, one way or another, acts with pressure and repression. This influenced the decision," said strike leader Carlos Fernandez.

Chavez had threatened to fine banks and withdraw the armed forces' deposits from private institutions if they didn't resume activities. Bankers said they provide a public service, which influenced the decision.

"We owe the public," Nelson Mezerhane, the council's vice president, said after a Wednesday council meeting. "They have their earnings and money in our institutions."

Fearing effects of the work stoppage -- shortages of food, medicine, fuel and cash -- could hurt their cause, many businesses plan to reopen next week.

The possibility of having to declare bankruptcy by remaining closed also prompted owners of shopping malls, restaurants, franchises and schools to soon open their doors to the public.

Dissident executives at state-run oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA, said the strike will continue in the oil industry despite the government's success in raising production.

Output surpassed 1 million barrels a day this week, a third of pre-strike levels. Oil provides half of government income and 70 percent of export revenue.

Arguing that oil executives sabotaged oil installations to ensure the strike's success, Chavez has fired one-eighth of the company's work force to regain control of the industry.

"These traitors should be in prison," Chavez said on Wednesday. "I call on judges to listen to the clamor of the people and jail these traitors."

Oil company strikers have rejected the accusation and challenged the government to present proof of sabotage.

While businesses pinched by the strike began to stray, government adversaries decided the best strategy to oust Chavez is by amending the constitution to shorten the presidential term and open the way for early elections.

The idea, which was floated by former President Jimmy Carter, "is the priority, it's the proposal we prefer," said Pedro Nikken, an attorney and adviser to the Democratic Coordinator opposition movement.

Venezuela's diverse opposition had been considering a host of proposals, ranging from a binding recall referendum on the president's rule in August to a popularly-elected assembly charged with drafting a brand new constitution.

The amendment would shorten Chavez's term from six years to four. Chavez was elected in 1998 and re-elected two years later. His term ends in 2007.

The amendment proposal will be formally presented to "The Group of Friends of Venezuela," a forum of six nations helping broker an end to Venezuela's hostile political conflict.

Diplomats from the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Spain and Portugal were to arrive in Venezuela on Thursday to support negotiation efforts led by the Organization of American States.

www.dailynews.com209541145430,00.html Article Last Updated: Wednesday, January 29, 2003 - 10:27:03 PM MST By Juan Forero The New York Times

CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez's government and his opponents are ready to discuss two proposals put forth by former President Carter to end a devastating national strike, a mediator in the talks and government foes said Wednesday.

The development is a shift for both sides, who had refused to entertain ideas on how to end a two-month walkout that has battered the economy. But that changed with Carter's intervention and the recent creation of a group of nations designed to guarantee that both sides comply with an accord.

"They are starting to look at the same reality," said Cesar Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States and the mediator in Caracas. "In December, they were looking at different realities."

The two sides will meet Friday, along with representatives from the so-called Group of Friends, which consists of the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Spain and Portugal.

In a Jan. 21 visit to Caracas, Carter made two suggestions to end the standoff. One was to adopt a constitutional amendment that would cut the president's term to four years from six, ending Chavez's presidency this year and leading to new elections. The other was to hold a recall referendum in August, asking whether the president should be removed from office. Chavez has long publicly supported a referendum.

"We favor a proposal that permits an accord to permit elections no later than August of this year," Jesus Torrealba, executive secretary of the Democratic Coordinator, the umbrella for opposition organizations, said in an interview. "The Carter proposals are an excellent base for negotiations."

Gaviria said acceptance of the proposals had ended the stalemate at the negotiating table and could lead to talks that might end a strike called Dec. 2 by business leaders, unions and political parties to force Chavez to resign or to convene early elections.

The walkout, affecting nearly every industry nationwide, has paralyzed the economy and nearly shut down the oil industry in Venezuela, a crucial supplier of petroleum to the United States. But Chavez's government, while low on cash and faced with mounting protests, proved to be more resilient than many opponents thought.

Now, many shops are operating normally. Banks have announced they will return to normal working hours, and larger businesses like malls are expected to open next week. Government opponents have called the changes a sign of their flexibility in the strike, though it is clear that Venezuelans are increasingly dropping their support.

www.miami.com Posted on Thu, Jan. 30, 2003 BY FRANCES ROBLES frobles@herald.com

CARACAS - According to business leaders, the two-month strike aimed at overthrowing Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez forced at least 25,000 companies to go out of business in December, one of many economic indicators forcing the president's opponents to reconsider their strategy.

''The cost of this strike is going to be higher than its benefits,'' said Vladimir Rojas, spokesman for Fedeindustria, the manufacturers association. ``The decision to strike was made with passion -- not cold, calculated business sense.''

On Wednesday, in a clear sign that the strike was weakening, banks agreed to return to normal operating hours Monday. Owners of shopping malls and food franchises also began offering signals that they were ready to open at least part-time.

Chávez and his supporters have refused to give in to what they consider unfair demands for the resignation of an elected president. They have also taken steps to reduce the most damaging effects of the strike.

The economy shrank 7 percent last year, and experts say it will fall another 25 percent in 2003, but many businesses have remained open in pro-Chávez neighborhoods, sparing residents from some of the most painful effects of the strike.

In addition, the government has nibbled away at the strike's core, a walkout that hobbled the oil industry of the world's No. 5 exporter. Output surpassed one million barrels a day this week, a third of normal but greater than at any time since the strike began.

Oil provides half of government income and 70 percent of export revenue.

PRESIDENT ENDURES

An alliance of business, labor and oil sectors went on strike Dec. 2, convinced that the weight of a nationwide work stoppage would topple the controversial president. But Chávez endured. And now some are questioning the wisdom of a 58-day strike that has cost the government alone at least $4 billion.

Like a hunger strike aimed at bringing attention to an important cause, the Venezuelan strike has starved the very people who started it.

Fedeindustria, whose membership makes up the backbone of the nation's business and commerce, estimates that up to 10 percent of Venezuela's small and medium-size manufacturers went under in December alone. If the strike continues, the group estimates another 60,000 will go bankrupt. Those that remain are left without supplies, gasoline or cash flow.

''That's just December,'' Rojas said. ``We haven't even counted January.''

Economists say that even if the strike is lifted now, Venezuela will lose half a million jobs this year. If it drags on, about one million more people will be out of work in a nation where two million are already unemployed, said economist Orlando Ochoa.

AT A STANDSTILL

As more and more businesses shut their doors for good, still others technically remain open but are at a standstill. The strike froze imports, leaving food companies without packing supplies, construction companies without cement, and shoe factories without glue. If the strike is lifted tomorrow and the materials suddenly appeared, experts say, it would not matter: Most business contracts and projects have been canceled.

The squeeze has forced businesses to negotiate with workers, having them work part time or take unpaid leave.

''You have to be honest with yourself and save yourself a lot of headaches,'' said José Antonio Couto, a contractor who shut his business when every pending deal was canceled. ``I paid my workers for doing nothing in December, but I just couldn't do it in January. That's 18 more people on the street.''

According to political science professor Janet Kelly, not a single industry has been spared.

Newspapers have published for nearly two months without running a single advertisement. The Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce lost a deal to promote business in Florida, and had to make cutbacks. Kelly's own graduate school of business has its workers on ''voluntary'' leave -- in this climate, no firms are about to pay for executive business courses for managers.

'If you are honest and objective, you ask yourself, `Did you have to destroy $5 billion of the economy?' '' Kelly said. ``I think there was a cheaper way.''

As accountants calculate what the damage, strike leaders defend the decision and say it was the only way to avoid the imposition of a dictatorial, quasi-communist regime.

''The anguish and the patience has been worth it, because we want a free country,'' said Juan Fernández, a former manager of the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, PDVSA, which has been at the forefront of the strike. ``Our democracy and our nation are at stake.''

According to independent pollsters, a solid 30 percent of the population remains fanatically devoted to Chávez. Government surveys show the opposite: Chávez enjoys 70 percent support.

Strike leaders also insist that the economic collapse that has engulfed Venezuela is not so much product of the strike, but of Chávez's policies.

To be sure, the economic decline began some time ago; many businesses started pulling back when the crisis bubbled a year ago, a situation that worsened after a short-lived coup in April.

DIFFERENT VIEWS

Despite the thousands whose names have been added to the unemployment rolls, many people outside the strike leadership also view the stoppage as the only means of ousting a leftist firebrand who threatens to shut down media and private business. Others say even the strike organizers know it was a big error, but have invested too much effort to abandon a strategy whose slogan is, ``Not one step back!''

''The attitude of most workers is that this strike is worth it,'' said travel agent Morela Cifuentes, who lost her job when the agency she worked for shut down. ``Right now, my household has zero income, and I continue totally to support the strike.''