www.forbes.com Reuters, 02.04.03, 9:11 AM ET

CARACAS, Venezuela, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Venezuela's oil output held steady Tuesday at just over one third of volumes produced before the two-month oil strike by foes of President Hugo Chavez, striking oil workers said. "Production continues at 1.2 million (barrels per day)," a representative of striking workers told Reuters by telephone. Venezuela had been producing 3.1 million bpd before the strike, which started on Dec 2 and is aimed at forcing Chavez from office. Strike leaders last week scaled back the stoppage in non-oil sectors. Many workers had already returned to their jobs as support for the shutdown frayed. But oil workers have decided to continue their strike to press for an early election. Efforts by the government to break the strike using replacement workers have increased oil production from its lowest point of 150,000 bpd during the stoppage. However, opposition and government officials offer conflicting accounts of how much output has recovered so far. The president of state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Ali Rodriguez said Monday that crude output had been increased to 1.8 million bpd. Rodriguez said foreign-financed extra-heavy oil joint-ventures in the Orinoco tar belt would begin producing synthetic crude again this week and will add another 300,000 to 350,000 bpd of output.

news.bbc.co.uk Tuesday, 4 February, 2003, 13:00 GMT By Andrew Walker

BBC Economics correspondent The president of the oil producers organisation Opec has said that supplies from most of the group's members might be cut when the organisation meets next month.

Abdullah al Attiyah, who is also the oil minister of Qatar, that there could be a three million barrel a day glut in the near future.

Opec members

Algeria Indonesia Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Venezuela

Opec's planning has been disrupted for the past two months by a strike in the oil fields of Venezuela, the group's third largest supplier.

Now output is gradually climbing in Venezuela, and some officials suggest it could be in the region of two thirds of normal production.

In addition, the oil market is approaching a time of the year when demand is relatively weak - when the northern hemisphere winter ends but before the summer motoring season gets underway.

Covering a shortfall

Opec officials fear the result of these two developments could be excess supplies and a price crash.

So several of them, including the group's president, have been suggesting that cuts in production quota are likely when they are discussed at a meeting next month.

The return of Venezuela to something approaching normal production, if it is sustained, is also significant in the context of a possible war in Iraq.

It would then be possible for Opec's dominant force Saudi Arabia to make good any shortfall resulting from the loss of Iraqi oil deliveries.

Saudi Arabia does not have sufficient spare capacity to cover for production shortfalls in both Iraq and Venezuela at the same time.

daily.stanford.edu By Eric Eldon News Editor Tuesday, February 4, 2003 last updated February 4, 2003 2:47 AM

Editor’s Note: This is the sixth in a weekly series of interviews with international students at Stanford meant to heighten awareness of issues of social and political importance around the world.

This past weekend, The Daily sat down to discuss Venezuelan politics with second-year chemistry doctoral student Eileen Jackson, president of the Venezuelan Association at Stanford, and fifth-year geophysics doctoral student Sandra Vega, a member of the association.

Venezuela emerged with Colombia and Ecuador from the collapse of Simón Bolívar’s post-Spanish colonial Gran Columbia in 1830. Venezuela has overcome a long line of military strongmen and economic instability, largely with money earned through its vast oil fields. It has successfully implemented many political reforms and attained, until recently, a remarkable level of economic stability.

Democratically elected governments have been in power since 1959. Today, the populist, leftist President Hugo Chavez is losing his once-solid support among Venezuelans — having survived one coup on his government, Chavez and his supporters are now confronting a popular two-month-old national strike led by the state oil company and, until yesterday, other business leaders.

The oil strike goes on even as the Chavez government continues to increase oil production without company involvement.

Yesterday, opposition leaders called off the general strike in response to the worsening economy and mediation efforts by a group of countries including the United States.

The Daily: The United States buys a lot of its oil from Venezuela, a member of OPEC, and it affects the oil prices and industries there. Many U.S. oil companies are invested in Venezuela, or at least used to be. How do U.S. and other foreign interests affect Venezuela?

Sandra Vega: Everything related to oil is [run by] the state. It’s managed by the state. Sometimes they have deals with other international oil companies. These companies go to Venezuela, they work there, and they have to pay taxes, and, depending on how much they produce, they have to give some [oil] to the government. You can say it’s an investment, but everything is controlled by the state.

TD: What do you think about President Hugo Chavez as a leader, as a person and about his economic plans?

Eileen Jackson: I don’t like him at all. I think he’s a very resentful person. He’s very aggressive, he has very violent speech. His economic plan is a mystery to me. He’s always talking about his revolution, he’s always talking about feeding the poor and making their lives better. What I see in Venezuela is more poverty since he’s been in government. Every year I go home and I can see it deteriorating. Unemployment is terrible. Chavez sets himself up there like he’s some new world leader, like he’s Jesus Christ, like he’s Simón Bolívar, like he’s going to change the world. But then it’s mostly rhetoric, there’s no real plan. Some of the things he’s done, some of the social programs have been more of a corruption case. He’s bankrupted the national bank. [Chavez’s government] has built houses [for the poor], but the houses are falling apart. He talks about public education, but there’s not enough money going into it. He says he’s building more schools, but I don’t see them. It’s turned into more of an indoctrination system, where they’re re-writing history. I think it’s dangerous because people actually believe in him, because he doesn’t have a plan — nothing different than communism, nothing new.

TD: So do you hold him responsible for the problems that Venezuela currently has?

EJ: I don’t think Chavez is responsible for all the problems. I think the problems are from the past and they’ve been growing. We’ve had a lot of corruption and a lot of inefficient governments, but instead of solving these problems, he’s making them worse. He’s created a lot of hate among classes that hadn’t been there before . . . in his speeches, he tells the poor people that they’re poor because [the rich] exploited them. There’s still a belief that the country is rich and it hasn’t been divided well. But it’s not only distribution of wealth, it’s also that you have to work, that you have to create wealth, and he doesn’t really have a plan for creating more wealth, or creating sources of employment, there’s something that’s long-term or long-standing. He hasn’t given any security, and no one invests in Venezuela nowadays. He talks about nationalizing businesses and that doesn’t help, either.

SV: Chavez took advantage of a very important historical moment in Venezuela. The people were tired of the corrupt political parties that had been governing the country for the last 40 years, and he promised to help the situation. Many people from the middle classes, especially who leaned towards the left, voted for him. He had a lot of support from people in different political parties. He tried to put everything in his favor to stay in power for a very long time — he changed the constitution — but in the years that he’s been in government, he hasn’t done a lot. He does a lot of talking, like every day on the television, but not about important things, and he has been very insulting to people who don’t support him. Now the private media doesn’t support him, and he does not want to tolerate this.

EJ: As time progressed, it became more and more obvious that he was becoming more and more authoritarian. At the beginning, it wasn’t so obvious, but anyone in the government who would criticize or say something against him would be removed from office, and that’s been happening more and more lately.

SV: He was elected democratically, but now he’s acting like a dictator.

TD: Could you talk about how you as individuals — your family backgrounds and work experience, such as experience in the national oil company — relate to how you perceive Chavez.

SV: I worked for PDVSA, the national oil company, I don’t work there anymore, but I have a lot of friends in the oil company, which gives me a different perspective on what’s going on. It is a very polarized situation now, and even though I don’t agree with Chavez’s behavior, the way he has done things, at the same time I also don’t agree with those who call themselves the opposition and the things they have also done.

TD: Are there noticeable shifts taking place in public opinion?

SV: Venezuela is in a process right now where the people are learning, where the people who used to be apathetic about these sorts of issues are out on the streets protesting. They realize that they have to participate to improve the situation. But the problems that we’re facing will take years to fix.

SV: There are many students, especially [studying] geophysics from Venezuela, especially from PDVSA. They have scholarships.

EJ: The company is paying for them. Scholarships from PDVSA and their affiliated consortiums

SV: No one knows what is going to happen now with the scholarships because Chavez has taken control of PDVSA and is firing a lot of people. I know at least three people who went to Stanford, who got their master’s degree here, who are fired. They are some of the thousands of people who are fired. No one knows what the strategy is that Chavez and his supporters are using, except that those who stay in the street protesting him are fired. He says he’s only firing managers, but that’s not true, he’s firing people who don’t manage anything. They’re managing PDVSA right now in a way that nobody understands. People are being fired who have been in charge of paying the scholarships for the people at Stanford.

EJ: The people that are at Stanford right now don’t know what is going to happen.

www.sanmateocountytimes.com112681156904,00.html By Alexandra Olson, Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Workers in all sectors but the vital oil industry returned to their jobs Monday -- abandoning a two-month general strike that devastated Venezuela's economy but failed to oust President Hugo Chavez.

As life began returning to normal in stores, factories and banks, the government made gains toward restoring oil production to pre-strike levels in a nation that is a major supplier of crude to the United States and the world's fifth-largest petroleum exporter.

The fear of bankruptcy and shortages of gasoline and other essentials prompted leaders to end the strike, which began Dec. 2, said Albis Munoz, vice president of the country's biggest business chamber, Fedecamaras.

Chavez, elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, vows to defeat his opponents in the streets and at the ballot box. He said Sunday he will prosecute strike leaders for sabotaging the economy.

OTHER ARTICLES IN THIS SECTION

2/4/2003

• NASA may have erred
• Students, teacher call for more the space exploration
• Social workers deny baby cover-up
• Mother thinks her 18-year-old son, Osama, may be the victim of a hate crime
• Boy's body found on coast
• Restaurant, bar owners must cough up for security
• Powell plans presentation of photographs to press U.S. case
• Bush plan boosts defense, freezes domestic funds
• Bombers may go to Pacific
• Meter madness
• Drugs in overdose deaths identified
• County making water disaster plans
• Spending plan tailored for utmost political lift
• World Trade Center redesign is down to two competitors
• Caltrain shuttles could be canceled, officials say
• Jury rejects defense case in wife's death
• Mini-park plan meets skateboarder approval
• Upscale senior housing project approved, will begin in summer
• Stanford facing $17 million deficit
• Vallejo couple claims $85 million ticket
• PG&E presents quake safety tips
• Record producer Spector arrested in shooting death
• Mysterious infection attacks L.A. inmates
• They cheer, they jump, they're deaf, they rock!

Venezuela's opposition still hopes to generate international pressure for new elections.

The United States, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal joined the Organization of American States in mediating 3-month-old talks. Over Chavez's objections, they endorsed an early election.

After meetings here Friday, diplomats from the six nations said early elections were the best way to restore stability.

Seeking to capitalize on the strike's momentum, the opposition organized a massive signature drive Sunday for early elections -- the strike's original goal. Organizers claimed 4 million people signed the petitions.

Strike leaders' often conflicting petitions reflected their various agendas.

One called for a constitutional amendment declaring Chavez's term over. Another would cut his term from six years to four, allowing elections this year. A third would create a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution and call general elections.

Yet another option: A binding referendum halfway into Chavez's term, or in August, as permitted by the constitution. That idea was supported recently by former President Carter.

Chavez says he prefers the August option -- a referendum he could win because the opposition, while condemning political and economic unrest, has yet to present an alternative to his populist "revolution" for the poor.

While Manuel Cova, secretary general of the Venezuela Workers Confederation, claimed some sort of vote could be held as early as March, Venezuela has no one to organize a vote.

The Supreme Court ruled last month that the Chavez-dominated Congress must appoint a new board of directors for the National Elections Council. Without a council, no one can verify the signatures collected Sunday.

The strike reflected "the disorganization of the opposition," said Riordan Roett, director of Western Hemisphere studies at Johns Hopkins University.

"It was anti-Chavez but never pro-anything. What were they going to replace Chavez with?"

Lines disappeared at banks, traffic jams reappeared, and janitors swept the halls at Caracas' multistory Sambil shopping mall Monday in anticipation of a Tuesday opening.

The strike "lasted too long and now we are paying the consequences," said Luis Lange, 24, manager of an electronics store.

Like Lange, hundreds of thousands of businessmen had counted on holiday sales to make up for last year's poor sales.

According to the Fedeindustria business chamber, the fallout from the strike and continuing recession will cost 200,000 jobs and close more than 20,000 small- and medium-sized businesses by August.

Chavez also fired more than 5,000 striking oil workers.

Lack of oil and tax income forced Chavez to cut 10 percent from Venezuela's $25 billion budget for 2003. Economists forecast the economy will shrink 25 percent this year after an 8 percent contraction in 2002.

Venezuela's crude oil output rose to 1.2 million barrels per day Monday, compared with 1.1 million barrels over the weekend, according to dissident staff at the state owned monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.

That is about a third of normal production, but Venezuela is expected to add 200,000 more barrels per day in the coming weeks, the staff's daily report said.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 - 1:59:41 AM By: Paul Volgyesi

Date: Sat, 01 Feb 2003 00:04:29 +0200 From: Paul Volgyesi sanbasan@operamail.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Re: A gringa's experience

Dear Editor: When Priscilla arrived in Caracas to begin work the state-run oil company PDVSA, "Hugo Chavez was a newly-elected President riding high on the wave of popularity."

A year after she left, the wave has become a tide.

Chavez supporters "were a minority at her office..."

You bet they'd be!

But "the debate among (her) co-workers was a healthy one. Non-supporters gave him the benefit of the doubt..."

That is, nobody ever dreamt "el negrito" would really dare touch their privileges.

Priscilla doesn't like "...his maniacal cling to power..."

Which is well within an electoral mandate that Priscilla would never dare to question in her own country. Did anyone hear Priscilla complain about how Dubya was not-elected?

• Or is she suggesting early elections or a referendum on the War on Iraq or any other Bushery she may not like?

When she says "It is no secret that Chavez is a recovering communist," she seems to ignore that "recovering communists" happen to rule half of the world ... one of them, Putin, making out quite well with Bush. As a matter of fact, better a recovering communist than a reborn fascist.

As for "The division between supporters and non-supporters shifted toward the class/income lines," Priscilla forgets colors (how many token niggers in Vassar?), on which a friend from Trinidad commented recently: "In our region, 'negro y pobre' are synonyms."

Which is exactly where said division was long before Chavez was even born, except that there was a huge "silent majority" kept that way by means of state-class terrorism.

And ... while Priscilla believes opposition slogans like "The people of Venezuela vehemently reject his rule." zillions of rotten 'lumpen' have had the gall of showing her she's dreaming on January 23.

All the rest of Priscilla's diatribe can be found in Gustavo Coronel's "Complete Works" and other opposition sources ... that huge mistakes will be made by a class taking over the public life and management of a country they've been forcibly kept away from for untold generations should surprise no one.

• What is much more surprising is the vehemence of US citizens in the support of criminal behavior (not the protests which are OK, but the sabotage and other niceties) that would land them in jail at home.

Or are the rules different for the "negritos" of the outer world?

Given that it took your politicians some two weeks of 24/7 study of the opinion polls to figure out they should distance themselves from Trent Lott...

Paul Volgyesi sanbasan@operamail.com Budapest, Hungary