news.bbc.co.uk Tuesday, 28 January, 2003, 14:13 GMT

Venezuela's 58-day-old strike by right-wing business groups and unions to remove the country's democratically elected president appears to be waning.

Oil production has increased, the stock exchange reopened and the opposition infighting over how to continue their actions against President Hugo Chavez has become public.

If some sectors of the opposition, business sectors or political sectors, think they can save themselves from this regime by easing the strike, they are totally mistaken

Carlos Ortega Strike leader

Striking oil workers now concede that production has recovered to 966,000 barrels per day, about a third of pre-strike levels, from the lows of 150,000 in December.

The government of the world's fifth largest oil exporter says output is currently at 1.32 million barrels a day.

The Caracas stock exchange gained over 10% when it resumed operations on Monday after its last session on 29 November.

"You can't close indefinitely," said exchange president Nelson Ortiz.

"The government didn't pressure us at all into reopening," he said adding it would trade for limited hours every day.

Strikers infighting

Faced with the possibility of bankruptcy, many private businesses, restaurants and stores have already broken the strike and private banks continue to open everyday, but for limited hours.

A strike leader has condemned the return to work by business.

Shortages are causing discontent with the strikers

"If some sectors of the opposition, business sectors or political sectors, think they can save themselves from this regime by easing the strike, they are totally mistaken," said union leader Carlos Ortega.

Several business leaders have said that schools, restaurants and shopping malls should be allowed to reopen.

"Some people plan to reopen some commerce, industry and work activity," opposition leader Julio Borges told reporters.

"We must respect that as the strike is voluntary."

Mixed messages

But strike leaders said the walkout at the state oil monopoly, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), which provides half of government revenues, would continue.

The government, however, claims most of PDVSA's 40,000 employees have returned to work after 3,000 managers were sacked.

Last week some oil tanker pilots agreed to return to work.

But the true state of affairs within the oil refineries and aboard platforms is not known.

The strike at the oil work is having the most dramatic effect on the economy.

Business strike breakers

To prop up the economy, Venezuela on Monday extended a suspension of foreign exchange trade until 5 February to offset the damage caused by the strike and maintain its foreign reserves.

Business join banks in breaking the strike

"If we hadn't suspended trading, there would have been continual withdrawals, creating a banking crisis," Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega told local television.

"We are losing international reserves dramatically ... about $60m a day," he said.

The government plans to introduce a fixed exchange rate, after the bolivar lost a quarter of its value this year, but no level has been given.

International intervention

Representatives from six nations - led by the US and Brazil - are due in Caracas on Thursday to try to broker an end to the crisis.

Former US President Jimmy Carter has tabled constitutional reforms to shorten the president's term or hold a binding referendum on Mr Chavez's rule in August.

He was elected in 1998, re-elected two years later, and his term ends in 2007.

Business leaders fear popular discontent with food and fuel shortages caused by the strike could undermine their attempt to remove Mr Chavez from office.

The strike is estimated to have cost Venezuela at least $4bn.

As a result, the economy could shrink by up to 40% in the first quarter of 2003.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 - 2:15:17 AM By: Robert Rudnicki

Support for the opposition-led national work stoppage appears to be waning as many of the nation's schools, shopping malls and fast food franchises look set to reopen as they look to recover from the crippling effects of the stoppage, which commenced on December 2, and has so far failed in its objective of removing President Hugo Chavez Frias and his government from office. 

Shopping malls will decide over the next couple of days whether to reopen their doors, but the early signs seem to point to a reopening, under the guise of aiding the opposition's mini referendum of February 2. 

• Some schools have already restarted classes, and more look destined to follow as many Venezuelans begin to consider the long term costs of failing to provide education to their children. 

The vast majority of Venezuela's many fast food franchises have remained shut since the now eight-week-old stoppage began, but most are now set to reopen as they face the prospect of going bankrupt.

However, despite claims that workers in the all important oil industry were returning to work, striking Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) management insist they will continue to support the stoppage. 

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 - 2:18:57 AM By: Robert Rudnicki

Splits continue to appear in the Coordinadora Democratica opposition grouping as less hard-line members insist support for the strike is voluntary and cannot be forced on people. Primero Justicia deputy Julio Borges says "people have held on for in excess of 50 days and they have made a great sacrifice ... some people plan to reopen certain commercial, industrial and business activity. We must respect that the strike is voluntary." 

Borges' comments come as many shopping malls, fast food franchises, schools begin to consider reopening, and following the Caracas Stock Exchange's plan to do the same after supporting the work stoppage since December 2. 

Rumors of discontent began several weeks ago when some opposition leaders began to question the long term affects of the strike and a possible popular backlash that come come as food supplies remain in doubt and many schools remain closed. 

However, one sector that still appears to be holding firm is the petroleum industry. Despite government claims that many workers were now returning, it appears as if resolve may have been hardened by the approximately 3,000 firings that have been carried out since Petroleos de Venezuela's (PDVSA) restructuring was announced. 

www.timesdaily.com By FABIOLA SANCHEZ Associated Press Writer January 28. 2003 2:57AM

Customers pass an empty shelf in a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela, Monday, Jan. 27, 2003, in the ninth week of an opposition-led work stoppage that intends to oust Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Several business leaders said that schools, restaurants and malls may reopen amid fears that a 57-day-old strike called to force President Hugo Chavez's ouster could backfire.

Strike leaders said the work stoppage in the oil industry, which provides half of government revenue, would continue.

"The protest by oil workers will continue because this is the path we are taking to find a solution to the crisis," dissident oil executive Juan Fernandez told a press conference.

Crude output reached 966,000 barrels a day on Monday, according to striking executives at state oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA. Oil production dropped as low as 150,000 barrels per day in December compared to pre-strike levels of 3.2 million barrels per day.

Business representatives expressed concern that discontent with food and fuel shortages caused by the strike could undermine its objective: removing Chavez from office.

Julio Brazon, president of the Concecomercio business chamber, which represents about 450,000 stores and retailers, said businesses need "to recover earnings and avoid labor problems." He said shopping malls and franchises may be permitted to open part-time next week.

Carlos Avila, executive president of Subway de Venezuela, said fast food franchises were considering opening four days a week for limited hours. Each of Subway's 76 branches in Venezuela have lost an average of $30,000 during the strike.

The National Association of Private Education, which represents 911 private schools, convoked assemblies this week to decide whether schools should open Feb. 3.

Strike organizers, who accuse Chavez of dragging this South American country into political and economic chaos, warned that easing the work stoppage would be counterproductive.

"If some sectors of the opposition, business sectors or political sectors, think they can save themselves from this regime by easing the strike, they are totally mistaken," said labor boss Carlos Ortega. The government claims most of PDVSA's 40,000 employees have returned to work, a claim strike leaders deny. In an effort to regain control of the oil industry, Chavez has fired close to 3,000 PDVSA employees.

A waning strike could give Chavez the upper hand in negotiations with the opposition. Negotiations, mediated by the Organization of American States, have focused on whether to hold early presidential elections.

Chavez, a firebrand former paratrooper, was elected in 1998 and re-elected two years later. His term in office ends in 2007.

Government adversaries are now pinning hopes on amending the constitution to allow early elections. They must gather signatures from at least 15 percent of Venezuela's 12 million registered voters to call a referendum to cut the presidential term to four years.

Another option is waiting until August, when the constitution allows for a legally binding referendum on the president's rule.

Opposition parties are organizing a massive signature collection campaign on Feb. 2, the same day a nonbinding referendum on Chavez's presidency was supposed to be held. Citing a technicality, Venezuela's Supreme Court ruled last week balloting must be postponed indefinitely.

While the political impasse continues, Venezuela is slowly turning into an economic wasteland.

The strike has cost Venezuela at least $4 billion so far. The economy could shrink by as much as 40 percent in the first quarter of 2003, the Santander Central Hispano investment bank has warned.

Chavez is preparing to impose currency exchange controls this week to limit the amount of foreign currencies Venezuelans can buy. The measure is aimed at stemming a run on Venezuela's bolivar currency, which has lost a quarter of its value this year.

www.timesdispatch.com FROM WIRE REPORTS Jan 28, 2003

CARACAS, Venezuela - A two-month strike against President Hugo Chavez showed signs of waning yesterday as oil production rose and some businesses and schools prepared to reopen.

Crude oil output reached 966,000 barrels a day yesterday, according to striking executives at the state oil monopoly, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A.

That's just under a third of Venezuela's prestrike production but well up from a low of 200,000 during the strike.

El Nacional newspaper reported that the Wendy's International Inc.'s chain of fast-food restaurants will open its 56 locations in Venezuela this week.

An end to the strike, which has curtailed oil shipments from what was the world's fifth-largest supplier, would help bring down oil prices that have climbed to two-year highs.

Trading resumed on the Caracas Stock Exchange for the first time since the strike began Dec. 2.

Shutters at the Centro Lido shopping mall in the nation's capital went up, and owners of many malls, franchises and retailers said they would meet tomorrow to decide whether to open.

As the strike entered its ninth week, Chavez was preparing to impose currency exchange controls this week to limit the amount of foreign currencies Venezuelans can buy and stem a run on the bolivar, which lost a quarter of its value this year.