Wait and see Sunday, March 23, 2003 By Alistair Scrutton

CARACAS, Venezuela—They disrupted Christmas. They froze Venezuela’s oil lifeblood. They marched in their millions. To little avail.

Vast numbers of Venezuelans who failed to force out leftist President Hugo Chavez with a huge strike are now in limbo. They are wondering what do to next and fearful of what may come as the nation, split along economic class and political fault lines, falls deeper in recession.

“Depressed isn’t the word for it. I’m totally crushed,” said Maria Jose Alonso, a brooding, out-of-work pharmacist who chatted in a restaurant about the two-month strike that petered out early last month. “Now Chavez is on the offensive.”

Chavez, a former paratrooper who survived a bungled coup in April last year, took on and defeated the strike which slashed oil output in the world’s No. 5 petroleum producer.

He has called his foes “oligarchs” out to destroy his self-styled “revolution” to help the poor.

“We thought the strike would push Chavez out in a week, 10 days at most,” Alonso said, flashing ten fingers in the air.

In December, she took part in demonstrations for the first time ever. Like many Venezuelans across the country, she spent Christmas banging pots and pans to protest against Chavez and to call for early elections.

Alonso’s pessimism reflects a mood swing among the middle and upper classes, the backbone of the opposition whose marches often ended in street battles with Chavez’s mainly poor supporters.

Trip wires still lie ahead—from opposition calls for a referendum to fears the government could take over private TV stations—that could spark further civil unrest. But many of Chavez’s foes are soul-searching.

Opposition in disarray

“There’s disarray. The opposition aren’t weaker in the sense they can still mobilize a lot of people. But most agree mobilizations are not the way,” said Caracas-based political analyst Janet Kelly. “The debate is over what to do now.”

Resigned, scared and depressed are some of the words Chavez’s opponents use to describe their reaction to the fact that the president, whom they see as a power-hungry class warrior trying to turn Venezuela into a Cuba-style communist state, is still leading the country.

“Two months ago we were optimistic. Now it’s all just so uncertain,” said Tom Bokor, a systems auditor at the pvdsa state oil firm who was fired after he went on strike. He now supports his wife and three children with his savings.

Several million Venezuelans have participated in dozens of huge opposition marches over the last year. But polls show that the populist president could still win an election with around 30 percent support, if the opposition vote remained divided between anti-Chavez leaders.

Opponents fear a government counterattack. Chavez has fired more than 15,000 striking state oil workers, and authorities have arrested businessman Carlos Fernandez, a strike leader, on rebellion charges. Detention orders have also been issued for several other strike organizers.

Unexplained bombs at Colombia and Spanish diplomatic buildings on February 25 sparked fears of an upsurge in political violence. “Maybe the only way out is flying to Miami but now I can’t even buy dollars. I’m trapped,” Alonso added, referring to currency controls introduced in February by Chavez to curb what he called the “dolce vita” of the rich.

People must make a living

Caracas, a sprawling city nestled in lush mountains, is returning to the normalcy of chaotic Latin American capitals.

Streets empty during the strike have filled up again with snarling traffic. Once-closed restaurants are busy, surrounded by gleaming sports utility vehicles tended by security guards.

Demonstrations are smaller now. One recent Sunday, protesters on gleaming motorbikes and draped in flags rode through a wealthy business district, but they numbered only a few hundred. Only several thousand people protested Fernandez’s arrest.

“A lot of the opposition are shell-shocked. They fired their biggest artillery and missed. They underestimated Chavez and now they’re marched out,” said one European diplomat.

Private TV stations, some of Chavez’s most vocal opponents, still broadcast spots show flag-waving protesters calling for liberty and urging Venezuelans to keep up the fight against the president. But the images have little resonance on the streets.

Ice cream vendors outnumber visitors at the posh east Caracas Altamira square, a few months ago a hub of resistance to Chavez that teemed with students, office workers, military officers and housewives who gathered daily to protest.

“People have to make a living, you know, now the strike has ended,” said Leonora Acevedo, a university teacher who has been protesting in the square for four months. She sat alone.

The opposition umbrella group, Coordinadora Democratica, is an alliance of interest groups ranging from unions and civic groups to a business federation. Their divided aims range from throwing out Chavez with military help to having a referendum. “We need to refresh the movement,” said Miranda State governor Enrique Mendoza, an opposition leader.

Wait and see

Meanwhile Caracas is in wait-and-see mode. Its inhabitants still talk about latent class hatred between the poor western and posh eastern halves of a city that may explode in unrest.

Rich districts store arms and chains to mount barricades.

Chavez-loyal soldiers have confiscated the heavy weapons of the opposition-run Caracas metropolitan police. Soldiers stand guard outside police stations.

Downtown Caracas is a Chavez stronghold of street peddlers, run-down buildings, graffiti and garbage. The presidential palace is a heavily guarded mansion surrounded by troops and road blocks. But nearby his supporters seem confident.

“The people are with Chavez. They know he’s fighting the rich who are responsible for all this mess,” said Antonio Lopez, selling children’s toys on a street corner.

A few miles away to the east the atmosphere is different.

“Don’t Despair” reads one banner on the windows of an expensive dried flower shop in an upmarket Caracas mall. “We feel hemmed in now,” said Flor, a retired woman who said she was too worried about recriminations to give her full name. She strolled by the flower shop, her neck laden with jewelry. “But don’t count us out. We’ll be back.” -- Reuters

www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, March 20, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Venezuelan Ambassador Jorge Rondon left Iraq Monday evening on instructions from the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry and will remain in diplomatic service in Jordan.

Political Sciences professor and anti-government columnis, Anibal Romero claims that the attack on Iraq will affect Venezuela. Firstly, Romero contends, the USA will be seeking out outbreaks of terrorism and divert money from development projects to intelligence gathering and military objectives.

After the war oil prices will probably drop as Iraqi oil flows on to the market … “Venezuela will lose markets as other countries turn to Iraq for supplies … very ironic for Venezuela ... Chavez Frias will not to antagonize the USA since he finds himself in a weak position.”

Romero has harsh words for the French and their attitude towards the war ... “the French imperialists received Zimbabwe’s Mugabe, do business with Chavez Frias and other third world dictators … they are the principle investors in the Iraqi oil industry.”

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 18, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

41st Control Court judge Maria Trastoli has accepted a state prosecutor’s call to put a Military Intelligence Directorate (DIM) officer on trial for punching a journalist.

On June 20, 2002, undercover DIM agent, Marco Pluvio Rosales Salas struck El Universal journalist Alicia La Rotta to recover his ID card ... which La Rotta says she picked up during an anti-government demonstration.

La Rotta was reporting on the march called to protest President Hugo Chavez Frias’ alleged unconstitutional use of military uniform, and uncovered Rosales Salas posing as a photo-journalist taking photos of the protesters.

Rosales Salas blew his cover by reacting in typical macho fashion, characteristic of untrained uncover security agents. The judge has banned the DIM agent from leaving Venezuela and ordered that he must present himself before the courts once a week pending further court appearances.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 18, 2003 By: David Coleman

Charges against seven former oil executives, fired from Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) for their roles in the 2-month opposition attempts to sabotage the Venezuela's oil industry, have been dropped for alleged violations of judicial procedure. Defense lawyer Juan Martin Echeveria says the case had been thrown out after an appeals court review of how a lower court had raised the charges in the first place ... he told reporters "we have begun to see a light in Venezuela's administration of justice."

The seven rebele have, however, decided to remain in hiding until a general warrant for their detention has been voided by proper authorities. Rebel leader Edgar Quijano is reported as saying "we must be very careful . . . because the rule of law doesn't exist in Venezuela."

The anti-Chavez opposition claims that police had acted outside the framework of law ehen they attempt to arrest former PDVSA executive Juan Fernandez, last week, as he defiantly made a rebel appearance at a Caracas opposition rally. His supporters had threatened physical violence on police officers as the dragnet closed on the PDVSA saboteur and he was rushed away to an undisclosed location.

President Hugo Chavez Frias says, however, that PDVSA sabotage leaders must be punished under the full force of the law for inflicting tremendous suffering on the Venezuelan population ... but opposition leaders claim that arrest warrants issued to detain and bring their ringleaders to trial is tantamount to political persecution.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Sunday, March 16, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Fugitive CTV leader Carlos Ortega has been ratified as president of the Venezuelan Confederation of Trade Unions despite his current status as an asylum-seeker at the Costa Rican embassy in Caracas.  CTV director Pablo Castro had hoped to land the plum job for himself but following a weekend meeting of the CTV's executive committee, Castro decided to put his personal ambitions on ice until at least the smoke clears on Ortega's final destination.

There appears to be some discussion as to whether Costa Rica will afford Ortega diplomatic or territorial asylum after ruling out political asylum in view of Ortega's refusal to submit to the jurisdiction of the Venezuelan courts.  He went into hiding a couple of weeks back vowing to conduct a clandestine campaign to have President Hugo Chavez Frias removed from office, telling his supporters that he would never contemplate leaving Venezuela.

Nevertheless, as VHeadline.com had earlier reported, intense negotiations have been going on with the coup-supporting Spanish government to allow political asylum in Madrid for Ortega and co-conspirator, Fedecamaras president Carlos Fernandez ... although the latter is currently under luxury house arrest at his villa in Valencia (Carabobo State).

Meanwhile, opposition TV news channel Globovision is excitedly proclaiming that during the last 12 months, nine Venezuelan opposition leaders have been able to evade justice by keeping up a curtain of subterfuge, moving hideout on a nightly basis to avoid capture by Venezuelan security agents.   Foreign Minister (MRE) Roy Chaderton Matos says it is an exclusively policing matter to capture the fugitives and to bring them to trial by relevant courts but anti-Chavez AN deputy Felipe Mujica says Ortega and other opposition fugitives have been able to "run rings around attempts to capture them because of general police incompetence."  Nevertheless, the opposition is claiming in the world's media that the Chavez Frias government is conducting a campaign of "political persecution" against them...