Tuesday, 3 June 2003, 5:11 pm Press Release: Council on Hemispheric Affairs

www.coha.org Council on Hemispheric Affairs Monitoring Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting the Western Hemisphere Memorandum to the Press 03.27 30 May 2003

COHA Research Memorandum: Chávez and the Opposition Sign an Agreement that is Anything But Binding

• Weakened and divided since the failure of the December/ January strike, the opposition has been unable to achieve its principle goal of a guaranteed August referendum by yesterday's agreement with Chávez.
• The agreement is a victory for Chávez, allowing him to claim that the turmoil is ending, without actually having to risk his presidency.

Yesterday, after nearly seven months of intermittent negotiation, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and the leadership of the opposition signed an agreement in an attempt to diffuse the country's current political crisis. In their public statements, both sides are praising the accord as evidence of support for the constitution and as a step towards ending the violent turmoil in Venezuela. In reality, however, the agreement is a strong victory for Chávez and demonstrates that the weakness of the opposition was very much a factor at the negotiating table. The agreement calls on both sides to respect the constitutional principle of allowing a referendum only after an elected official has served half of his or her elected term, insinuating that any possible referendum will include not only the president, but also opposition governors and mayors. Although the opposition was seeking early general elections, the agreement does not even guarantee that a referendum will take place, nor does it prohibit Chávez from blocking opposition efforts to stage such a vote.

With current opinion polls showing that the Venezuelan president would not win an August referendum, Chávez has little motivation to facilitate it. While hailing the agreement as a step by the opposition to acknowledge the primacy of the Constitution, the president maintains that, "The referendum is only a possibility. It is not certain that there will be a referendum." Even César Gaviria, OAS secretary-general and one of the chief moderators of the negotiations, acknowledged, "the document does not put an end to the crisis." The opposition does have some victories to show its supporters. In the agreement the government finally acknowledged that human rights abuses and an armed citizenry are current problems plaguing the Venezuelan population. However, the main threat posed by the agreement lies in the language referring to any possible referendum. Since the document refers to all elected officials, it is likely that Chávez will threaten to force referendums for some of the opposition governors and mayors, should he himself have to face a vote.

The Venezuelan president has proven himself a master strategist. During both the coup and recent strikes, Chávez defied opinion polls and not only managed to survive, but quite possibly has emerged stronger than before. The opposition should keep this in mind as it uses the agreement to press towards a referendum in August. Chávez was forced to concede little in negotiations and is not bound to facilitate such a vote. Even if it does takeplace, Chávez has sufficient time to court anew the part of his population that he had previously lost and may once again be able to overcome his current low popularity ratings in opinion polls to retain power. It is also possible that Chávez could lose any referendum, but win the subsequent presidential election, in which he would be allowed to run. While Chávez does not have a majority of the Venezuelan population behind him, the opposition is weak and divided. If the economy revives and the president is able to rebuild his constituency, his re-election prospects may be anything but bleak.

This analysis was prepared by Katherine Wells, research associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. Issued 30 May 2003

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<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, June 02, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Speaking at his weekly Sunday radio address, Venezuelan  President Hugo Chavez Frias says he is convinced that the Cuzco Declaration signed by the Rio Group last week contains an intention to intervene in Colombia ... "that is why I signed with reservations." 

Chavez Frias told his listeners that he urged Heads of State gathered in Cuzco to debate the issue and says it is unbelievable that the United Nations (UN) would even think of entering Colombia ... the declaration asks the UN to establish a deadline for Colombian guerrillas to sign a peace agreement with the Colombian government and if the deadline isn't met, then to seek other options in conjunction with the Rio Group. 

"When I asked several Presidents at the meeting about the options, they couldn't answer ... I asked the question openly and someone did say it meant a multilateral intervention in Colombia." 

The President argues that it is something that has never been proposed before in Latin America ... "we have had guerrilla movements here in Venezuela, in El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua. Peru and Argentina ... this is crazy." 

A petition to discuss the topic was approved at the Rio Group meeting but no date fixed. President Chavez Frias says he hopes to open a continental debate on the matter and criticizes the Rio Group for not discussing the Free Trade for the Americas Agreement (FTAA) ... "that wouldn't have happened if the meeting had been here in Venezuela."

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Friday, May 30, 2003 By: David Coleman

No date has yet been set for a revocatory referendum on the rule of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias, but government and opposition negotiators have signed an agreement which obliges both sides to put aside a political conflict and to abide strictly by the terms of the 1999 Constitution to hold the referendum in a process which may be initiated after reaching the half-way point in the President's 6-year mandate this coming August 19.

Under the Constitution, which was itself approved by a democratic majority on December 15, 1999, a recall referendum can be held if Presidential opponents are able to collect signatures from at least 20% of duly registered voters.

Chavez Frias was first elected in December 1998, but opposition diehards -- who staged a violent but abortive coup d'etat on April 11, 2002 -- claim he may try to avoid a referendum. Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) deputy Felipe Mujica says "this a President who permanently fails to keep his word."

Nevertheless, Organization of American States (OAS) secretary general Cesar Gaviria was at the signing ceremony Thursday with Executive Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel and opposition representatives.  He said "this is a good agreement for all Venezuelans."

President Hugo Chavez Frias

Rabid opponents to President Chavez Frias' reform government accuse him of assuming near-dictatorial powers after he gaining majority support in the National Assembly (AN), quote a few nutters even go so far as to claim Chavez Frias is attempting to install Cuba-style communism in Venezuela despite abject denials from all quarters in government.

While opposition warlords maintain their vicious grip over much of what is going on in the provinces, the Venezuelan opposition is now pledged with the government to avoid violence in the run-up to the Constitutionally-mandated referendum process which is seen most likely to get off the ground in November or early December.

• But first the National Electoral College (CNE) must designate its own board of directors, verify valid signatures in a traditionally out-of-date roll of registered voters and set a target date for the referendum to be held.

Meanwhile, a series of hurdles must be surmounted even though they are not of the President's making ... voter records are said to include listings corruptly included of deceased voters from several decades back and political parties have yet to appoint representatives to monitor the vote when, and if, it happens...

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic news Posted: Monday, May 26, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias has  set Venezuela's opposition media in a spin by declaring that he does not know whether there will be a recall referendum.  Speaking in Lima before flying to Buenos Aires to take part in the inauguration of the new Argentinean President, Nestor Kirchner, Chavez Frias has expressed doubts about the opposition's capacity to meet the requirements stipulated in the 1999 Constitution. 

"If they do manage to meet the requisites, we will defeat them once more ... the People will defeat them again on any level."

The opposition, Chavez Frias says, must try to achieve its objective through legal means. Inside the opposition itself,  there are voices alerting to the fact that the recall referendum campaign has been restricted to Caracas and Miranda, forgetting the fact that 81.7% of voters live in the provinces and that President Chavez Frias has been visiting the provinces on a permanent basis.

During the Rio Group Cuzco meeting and the inauguration of the Argentinean President, Nestor Kirchner, Chavez Frias has been promoting his Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas Agreement (ALBA) to counter the USA-backed Free Trade for the Americas Agreement (FTAA). 

The Venezuelan President insists that political union must prelude economic union in the region.  "If South American countries sign the FTAA, they will be signing their death warrant for the future."

Free Trade was high on the agenda when Chavez Frias met Brazilian President Lula da Silva at the Brazilian Embassy in Buenos Aires ... Chavez Frias says the Southern Cone Economic Zone (Mercosur) is intertwined with the Petro America (integrated zone oil industry) project to offset the interests of neo-liberalism on the continent. Petro America will open up an alliance between Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Trinidad & Tobago and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). 

It has been learned that the President will be pushing his version of continental integration during a meeting with Kirchner. The negative Argentinean experience of neo-liberalism, the Venezuelan President hopes, will bring the two countries closer.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, May 25, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Colombian President, Alvaro Uribe succeeded in obtaining strong support for his counter-insurgency policy against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)  and other left-wing guerrilla groups during a meeting of the Group of 8 (G8)  in Paris. Uribe made the announcement during a Rio Group meeting in Cuzco, Peru. 

However, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias has put a damper on the meeting of Latin American Heads of State by signing the Cuzco Consensus with reservations. 

The Venezuelan President says he does not agree with United Nations (UN)  involvement in solving Colombia's internal problems and also is holding back on the Free Trade for the Americas Agreement (FTAA). "What the Consensus has stated regarding Colombia is very dangerous because it opens the door to a problem far more serious that the war and that is interventionism ... Venezuela continues to support the peace process." 

As for the FTAA, Chavez Frias questions outside dependence ... "we have enough resources in Latin America so why should we continue depending on others?" 

The Consensus includes the usual presidential-speak about overcoming poverty, consolidating democracy, inclusion and other recurring promises but it makes a major breakthrough by stressing the importance of political parties in democracy and urging legislation to ensure political party autonomy, financial transparency and accountability.

Organization of American States (OAS) general secretary, Cesar Gaviria received praise for his role in getting Venezuela's government and opposition to reach an agreement, which is expected to be signed next week in Caracas.