Tue May 27, 2003 06:34 PM ET

CARACAS, Venezuela (<a href=reuters.com>Reuters) - Venezuela's government and opposition will sign an accord on a possible referendum on Hugo Chavez's presidency Thursday which offers the hope of a peaceful solution to their long-running conflict, the chief international mediator said Tuesday.

"The signing will take place Thursday ... I believe that this will help to improve the political climate," Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria told reporters in Caracas.

After more than a year of often violent feuding over his rule, left-winger Chavez's government and its foes last week reached an accord in which they accepted the idea of a referendum after Aug. 19. They also agreed to shun violence and support a plan to disarm their supporters.

The agreement was welcomed Tuesday by the six-nation "Group of Friends" -- Brazil, the United States, Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal -- which had backed Gaviria's efforts to achieve a solution to the crisis in the world's No. 5 oil exporter.

"We think it's important they've taken this step," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said in Washington.

Venezuelan opposition leaders, who accuse Chavez of ruling like a dictator, say they fear he may still try to avoid a referendum.

After Aug. 19, which marks the halfway point of Chavez's term, Venezuela's constitution allows for the holding of a recall vote on the president's rule.

But the accord, which recognizes this constitutional right, does not automatically guarantee a referendum. His opponents must first collect signatures from 20 percent of voters.

"If they want me to go, they are going to have to work hard in the streets, they are going to have to collect signatures," Chavez said Tuesday in a speech in south west Venezuela.

For a vote to be held, the National Assembly, where Chavez supporters hold a slim majority, must also first appoint a new electoral authority to set a date for the poll and oversee the referendum process.

The signing of the accord will go ahead despite violence over the weekend in which gunfire disrupted a rally by opposition supporters in a pro-Chavez district of Caracas. One person was killed and 22 injured. The government and opposition blamed each other.

Tiana Perez, NewsMax.com May 2003

Editor's note: Tiana Perez, NewsMax's Venezuelan correspondent, will offer dispatches on the turmoil in this crucial and often-overlooked part of the world.

Mediation Ends With Accord in Venezuela

May 30: After six months of international mediation in Venezuela, opposition and government signed Thursday a 19-point accord to end violence and find a constitutional and electoral solution to the political crisis that undermines the legitimacy of President Hugo Chavez.

The government’s negotiating committee arrived in a red bus to the negotiations table after having rejected the agreement’s first two drafts during the past weeks. Chavez is said to feel happy about the document, which puts an end to expectations of violence in the country. He also is said to be glad that former strategies of economic and political devastation such as the general strike or coup attempts were over now.

The agreement text is respectful of the basic powers and of the National Electoral Council, the latter being a way to organize the referendum that would questions the president’s stay in power. The "international community" now has a mechanism, says the opposition, to ensure that the constitution shall not be violated and that elections will take place.

The National Assembly (Congress) will, once again, take its turn to try naming the five permanent and 10 temporary members that will constitute the National Electoral Council. The government, having somewhat more than 50 percent in Congress, will depend on political negotiations to grant a two-thirds majority for each of the members. The first vice president of the National Assembly affirmed “we shall be sure that the decision will be taken in Congress or in the Supreme Courts.”

The opposition, embodied in the Democratic Coordination Committee, which took a day to carefully review the accord, is still worried about the text not including a settlement for the fired workers of PDVSA, the state-owned oil company. Chavez himself fired the workers, who strongly protested during the strike, reducing the workforce of the company by around 17,000 people or 30 percent.

Zambrano, one of the Democratic Coordination Committee’s leaders, assures that the PDVSA issue will be resolved by giving back the jobs once the president steps out of office.

Juan Fernandez, the president of the Workers’ Union of PDVSA, complained about the accord not including articles related to the disarmament of violent groups or the role of the "international community" in appeasing violence.

The six-month mediation assistance by Gaviria, general secretary of the Organization of American States, ends with the agreement, thus cutting future interference by the world. Carter Center, however, will establish a branch in Caracas to help open roads toward electoral observations.

Charles Shapiro, U.S. ambassador, said that “the U.S. believes the agreement to be positive” and thinks that it was written in "good faith."

Argentina’s New President Will Use All Available Recourses

May 28: A few weeks ago, a protester stood in front of the presidential palace in Buenos Aires waving a sign that said, “Mr. President, the helicopter is waiting for you at the exit.”

The historical lack of faith of the population deepened with the presidential turnover unleashed by Menem’s involvement in a corruption scandal that set the stage for the social and economic collapse of the country. Since 1999, Argentina has had seven presidents.

Nestor Kirchner, the president-elect, skipped the second round after Menem, who on April 24 surpassed Kirchner in the first round of presidential elections by 2 percent with 24 percent retired from the race. Kirchner is scheduled to hold the post until December 2007.

Kirchner, a veteran of the Peronist Party's (Partido Justicialista) center-left wing announced in his inauguration speech that he would work to combat poverty and hunger by implementing economic and not social policies. He had said earlier that his government would not significantly depart from the direction the administration took with Duhalde, who was in power for 18 months and that it would work on increasing government spending through improved infrastructure projects.

Duhalde, who supported Kirchner all along his campaign, inherited a broke country with a debt burden equivalent to 114 percent of GDP. After defaulting on the debt, Duhalde soon started negotiations with the IMF to rollover its debt and qualify for an initial loan package that would stabilize the economy. His main achievements were the floating of the peso and the liberalization of frozen deposits.

Kirchner will most definitely continue with reforms required by the IMF to assure the country a feasible repayment schedule of its debt burden. IMF conditions include the reform of the banking system to assure creditor and investor protection, as well as structural changes to the inter-governmental lending and tax systems. The failure to collect taxes from the provinces and limitless borrowing from the different provincial governments represented a big leak for central funds during Menem’s period.

It would be natural to expect resistance in Congress as budget cuts to the provinces are ahead. Kirchner’s uncertain support by the majority of Argentina’s population may also tip municipal and other local elections coming ahead to the advantage of populist governors opposing austerity measures.

Kirchner’s handicap at the beginning of the presidential campaign had been the lack of support from provincial governments, around which Menem usually built his support base. Menem being out of the game does not mean that he will not come back or at least that those who worked around him will unite to back Kirchner with a single voice, especially now that the Peronist Party (Partido Justicialista) is fractured after it suspended internal elections to have three different candidates run for the presidential election on its behalf.

Kirchner, of Swiss and Croatian ascent, received international support on Sunday. Regarding internal conflicts, he mentioned in his speech, “I will use all available recourses in the constitution to pass needed reforms.”

Tough Election for Chavez

May 27: Less than 100 days from the referendum that would question the Venezuelan president’s term, all roads seem to be pointing to the Supreme Court for a decision.

The Supreme Courts of Justice may be undergoing the change that Hugo Chavez had long announced to be a milestone of his revolutionary plan. It is not certain, though, whether it is he who prompted the change, but in any of the cases, it comes at an awkward moment.

Chavez’s promise to "reform" the Supreme Courts of Justice has started to materialize with the approval of a procedure by Congress’ Interior Politics Committee to bypass the needed approval by two-thirds majority in Congress for the appointment of 12 more judges.

The breaking of the president’s support base had brought the Supreme Courts of Justice to a 10-10 balance, putting an end to the remarkable unanimity of the past.

The reform package consists not only of an expansion of the Supreme Court but also includes a law that would legally forbid annulling appointments of judges.

Implications of this law range from a quick sentence to the dissident generals accused of treason for rebelling against the government during the general strike to ultimate manipulation of the referendum conditions.

The rocky road to the referendum lead to the assignment of an ad-hoc commission assigned to appoint the five members of the Electoral Council that would be responsible for assuring smooth elections. The commission had been put in charge of breaking the stalemate in Congress, where a two-thirds majority to approve the five members has not been possible so far. Thursday the commission declared it failed to meet its objective after having extended its initial deadline.

The Supreme Courts of Justice could now be the only alternative left to name all of the Electoral Council or just the fifth, tie-breaking member by omission.

It is possible that whomever the judges end up assigning will be considered a transitory solution. The opposition is wary of transitory government officials, especially after having lost the opportunity to vote on a non-binding referendum in January because Chavez did not consider the Electoral Council’s director's term, elected by the Interim National Assembly, legitimate.

The now-dissolved Interim Constitutional Assembly had also appointed the twenty Supreme Court judges who now sit at the Supreme Justice Council in 1999. The transitory body acted in lieu of Venezuela’s Congress for close to two years. Its main task had been the approval of a new constitution. The Chavista vote reaching 98 percent of the Interim Assembly, it was not surprising that the constitution got approved with hardly any debate surrounding the major event.

Though still powerless, if spirits persist in spite of having to stand in long lines to buy food products worrying about unemployment and crime, the opposition will stage a constitutional debate. Chavez takes pride in following the constitution to perfection, but the clumsy drafting of the statutes of the Supreme Courts of Justice and the by passing of majorities in Congress could prove him at fault after all.

All being said, the new episode in Venezuela’s political struggle will give the opposition and the government time to rethink strategies for the referendum amid constitutional debates. The opposition may nominate one candidate to run against Chavez, and the president will fine-tune his party politics and feed his supporters to assure the 30 or 48 percent that he says is his piece of the universe of voters.

It may get complicated.

<a href=news.ft.com>Finalcial times By Francisco Toro in Caracas Published: May 27 2003 19:53 | Last Updated: May 27 2003 19:53

Weekend violence in Caracas has prompted Venezuela's interior minister to consider new regulations that would restrict opposition protest activities in certain neighbourhoods.

The possible clampdown coincides with the proposal of a new law that critics say would place significant restrictions on media broadcasts.

The debates on the right to protest throughout the city and the media contents bill come as concern mounts that Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's president, is becoming more authoritarian.

Lucas Rincón, Venezuela's interior minister, spoke of prohibiting political demonstrations after a shootout erupted during a Caracas rally at the weekend, killing one and injuring at least 17.

The government said it had urged rally organisers to change the location from Caracas' west side. Radical paramilitary supporters of Mr Chávez had warned they would attack opposition marchers in their west side neighbourhood.

But opposition leaders insisted they had a constitutional right to march anywhere and accused the government of trying to turn parts of Caracas into de facto no-opposition areas.

After the rally, Freddy Bernal, the pro-Chávez mayor of downtown Caracas, said he would no longer issue permits for opposition protests in his jurisdiction, citing the risk of violence. José Vicente Rangel, Venezuela's vice-president, accused the opposition of staging the shootings in order to blame the government.

Teodoro Petkoff, editor of an influential opposition tabloid, attacked Mr Rangel for "ignoring and even conniving with criminal actions announced ahead of time and performed in view of everyone, and on top of it, accusing the victims [of] the crimes".

The controversy comes as Venezuela's National Assembly is discussing a controversial media contents bill, which critics say would muzzle the overwhelmingly anti-Chávez private broadcasters. The bill would ban all violent material on television before 11pm - even in the context of live news broadcasts - ostensibly to protect child viewers.

During the Saturday rally, most broadcasters carried live images of the shootout, including images of wounded protesters.

"Under the pretext of protecting children from violent programing, the government wants to impose excessive restrictions," said José Miguel Vivanco, executive director of Human Rights Watch.

Tuesday, May 27, 2003
(05-27) 08:20 PDT CARACAS, Venezuela (<a href=www.sfgate.com>AP) --

Venezuela's government and opposition will sign an agreement on Thursday on a plan to hold a referendum on President Hugo Chavez's rule, the chief mediator of negotiations announced Tuesday.

The agreement, brokered by the Organization of American States, ends six months of formal talks between the two sides aimed at restoring stability to Venezuela. It also addresses possible votes on the terms of other elected officials.

The accord prohibits any amendments to election laws while authorities prepare for balloting. It also urges Congress to swiftly name election authorities.

"I hope the agreement will create a better climate than the one we have in the country today," said OAS Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria, the mediator. "I am convinced the agreement reached by the government and opposition is the solution we have been seeking."

Diplomats from six countries -- the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal -- that helped in talks will be present at the signing ceremony, Gaviria said.

The negotiations began in November, seven months after a coup that briefly toppled Chavez and exposed Venezuela's deep divisions over the former paratrooper's leftist economic policies and irreverent rhetoric.

Chavez's first election in 1998 ended the 40-year stronghold of two traditional parties accused of squandering Venezuela's vast oil wealth and leaving 80 percent of the population in poverty. He then pushed through a new constitution that paved the way for his own re-election in 2000 and elections that gave his allies control of Congress.

Chavez said he was leading "social revolution" against corruption and inequality. Adversaries -- business leaders, labor unions and the two traditional parties -- accused him of grabbing power and ruining the economy with leftist policies.

Months of unrest that followed the coup culminated in two-month strike to force Chavez's resignation. The strike collapsed in February, succeeding only in devastating the economy and costing Venezuela $6 billion. The economy shrank 29 percent in the first three months of 2003.

Venezuela's leaderless and demoralized opposition is now trying to organize a referendum to remove Chavez from office. The constitution would allow one in August, the midpoint in his six-year term. The next scheduled elections are in 2006.

Such referendums are also allowed for other elected officials. Chavez supporters are trying to organize votes against several legislators who defected from the ruling coalition, eroding the government's congressional majority to a handful of lawmakers.

Recent polls suggest Chavez's approval ratings range from 30 to 40 percent. To remove Chavez, the opposition must garner more votes than Chavez did in the last election: more than 3.7 million, or almost 60 percent.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: There is a wonderful story by Ray Bradbury about a man who travels to the future in some kind of time machine. He goes there and he finds a world without poverty, without war, without hunger, where everybody enjoys a reasonable amount of wellbeing. He travels back to the present with these excellent news and the people, now knowing the bright future that awaits humanity, simply start working to realize it. Since there is no doubt that they will get there, all hesitations and uncertainties are removed from the minds of humans. The traveler, however, eventually feels the pangs of remorse and confesses to a reporter that he did not really travel to the future, that he made up the story and delivers to him a document to that effect. Once the reporter is alone, he briefly thinks about his alternatives and decides to ... burn the document.

It is a nice story. It simply means that if we are sure that we can attain our ideal world we can work effectively to fulfill the prophecy. Sometime ago, a young and bright Venezuelan economist, Ricardo Haussman, now self-exiled at Harvard (not a bad place to be an exile) expressed a similar concept. He said that "Venezuela" was " condemned to success." It was a great phrase but sometimes we wonder...

In my case, I will borrow the poetic license of Jorge Luis Borges, who used to say that we do not really know in what direction time flows, in order to feel nostalgic about the future of Venezuela.

There is a Venezuela that, either because we have already seen her in the future, from where Borges said we might come from, or because we have dreamt so much about her, we already take for real.

We are certain that there is such a Venezuela ... one that contains the material and spiritual ingredients that we desire to see in our country. Knowing that she exists, we yearn for her, suspecting, however, that it might be located in a bend of the river of time which we might not get to visit.

• In this Venezuela, the Synagogue and the Mosque are built side by side. As it has been already noted by someone whose name I do not remember, the group that manufactures our textiles worships in the Synagogue while the group that sells them worships in the Mosque, but they say hello to each other as they cross paths...
• In this Venezuela, "negro" only has an affectionate meaning and racial hate or class resentment does not exist. We can walk in the east and the west of our cities without feeling we are in enemy territory.
• In this Venezuela, a teacher or a famous novelist can become President of the nation and a military man can be a President who walks among the people without bodyguards, revered by all.
• In this Venezuela land reform can be done without violating private property and peasants do not have to invade lands to be able to work them.
• This Venezuela has plenty of good main and secondary roads, new hospitals and universities in which people are attended in a dignified manner, where everybody pays according to their means.
• In this Venezuela there are few beggars since most everybody has a decent job. Street children are rare since the State will not allow children to be abandoned.

In short, the Venezuela of the future will look a lot like the Venezuela we have already had in the past. The Synagogue and the Mosque already exist and our Jews and Muslims have been able to coexist peacefully for years and to complement their economic activities.

Gallegos, the teacher and novelist was our President, until the military overthrew him. General Medina was our President and was the most civilian of civilians, revered by all, until he was overthrown by the military in combination with a political party. The Land reform of the 1960s gave land to more than 320,000 families without arbitrary land takeovers.

Venezuela was an example of relative prosperity for the region.

Venezuela surely can be that good and better in the future ... provided that our political leadership, by whatever name, opts for the promotion of an integral national effort based on respect for dissidents and civilized manners ... provided that our resources are developed with common sense and a modicum of administrative tidiness ... provided that democracy prevails over totalitarian ideologies.

To know that the future of Venezuela can be bright we do not really need a time machine, like the character in Ray Bradbury's story. All we need is to look back to our better years of democracy, the years of Medina, of Gallegos, of Betancourt, of Leoni and of the first Caldera, refine the good experiences we had then, exercise more social solidarity, educate our people to empower them to create wealth and elect capable political leaders, not leaders who pretend to know all, but leaders who surround themselves with the best and the brightest ... not leaders who sow hate but leaders who inspire people to realize their potential ... not a leadership based on terror, but a leadership based on example.

I feel very nostalgic about that Venezuela ... about the Venezuela we once had and of the Venezuela we could have again ... their positive aspects reinforced, their negative aspects minimized ... all in an environment of decency, respect and dignity.

A Venezuela where physical and spiritual garbage do not exist.

A Venezuela we can feel justifiably proud of.....

Some claim that the future is no longer what it used to be...

I am sure that it can be, if we apply our best efforts as a society to make it happen.

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.  In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort.  You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email gustavo@vheadline.com