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Venezuela Slowly Returns to Normal, But Political Conflict Remains

www.voanews.com Greg Flakus Caracas 14 Mar 2003, 06:15 UTC

In Venezuela, opponents of President Hugo Chavez continue their efforts to remove him from power, but the embattled leader appears stronger than ever after surviving a coup attempt nearly a year ago and a two-month general strike that ended in early February. Commercial life has returned to the city, but the underlying political conflict rages still.

Plaza Altamira in Caracas, which is almost empty now, has served as the headquarters of the anti-Chavez opposition VOA Photo - G. FlakusShops, restaurants, commercial centers and movie theaters are all open for business now and the almost daily protests that brought tens of thousands to the plazas have abated. The traffic on the streets of Caracas is almost as heavy as it was three months ago before the strike brought a halt to gasoline production.

But all is not well here. The rhetoric from both sides remains tough and the effort to resolve matters through peaceful dialogue has produced very little. Government negotiators did not show up for a round of talks promoted by the Organization of American States on Wednesday and opposition leaders say they see little government willingness to seek an end to the political crisis. Opposition representatives decry what they describe as "verbal violence" directed at them by President Chavez and his ministers.

Roy Chaderton MatosVenezuelan Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton says Chavez opponents are the ones promoting strife. He says that, instead of working to regain popular support, the opposition has tried to bring down the government through coup attempts and what he calls "terrorist methods." Mr. Chaderton also claims to have evidence that opposition figures here in Venezuela and in some other countries have plotted to kill the president.

Government spokesmen say the opposition efforts to oust Mr. Chavez through a popular uprising have failed. They note that the two-month strike ended without any concession from the government and that oil production is nearing normal levels in spite of the continuing strike by oil workers unions.

Striking oil workers in front of the oil company building in Caracas VOA Photo - G. FlakusPresident Chavez fired 16,000 of the striking workers and has replaced them with workers loyal to his government. Government officials say oil production, which fell to 150,000 barrels-a-day in December is now close to the 3.1 million barrels-a-day that was being produced before the strike. The government figures show production of 2.6 million barrels-a-day, but opponents say the level remains far below two million.

Ana Maria Ramirez, Former Venezuela oil company executive VOA Photo - G. FlakusAna Maria Ramirez, who worked with the state-owned oil company's shipping operations before the strike, says even if production is up, the deliveries will be slow.

She says no serious oil transport company will come to Venezuela these days because of the dangers present at Venezuelan ports. She says most companies will avoid the risk and go elsewhere. She also rejects government accusations that striking workers sabotaged facilities. She and other striking executives and workers blame any damage on the inexperienced and ill-trained personnel brought in by Mr. Chavez to operate the oil field equipment and port facilities.

Meanwhile gasoline shortages persist in much of the country in spite of imports of gasoline from Brazil. But government spokesmen say an oil company refinery is now back in operation and that the supply of gasoline will return to normal levels very soon.

Oil prices slide amid war debate

www.theage.com.au Friday 14 March 2003, 2:30 PM

World oil prices slumped as the twisted road to war in Iraq appeared to lengthen, warm weather approached and Venezuela pumped more crude, traders said.

US President George W Bush had run in a diplomatic tangle in the UN Security Council, traders said.

"The troubles the Bush administration is having at the UN appear myriad, giving the market the impression that the imminency of war has been pushed out a bit," said Fimat USA analyst John Kilduff.

New York's reference light sweet crude contract for April delivery skidded $US1.82 to $US36.01 a barrel.

In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for April delivery slid $US1.44 to $US32.47 a barrel.

The United States, looking for a way around French, Russian or Chinese vetoes, said it could allow a UN Security Council vote on war against Iraq to slip into next week or even forgo the vote altogether.

"We are still talking to the members of the Council with respect to coalescing around a position that wouldn't draw a veto, but the options remain: go for a vote and see what members say, or not go for a vote," US Secretary of State Colin Powell told Congress.

Michael McAllister, energy analyst at Fahnestock and Co, said news that Venezuela had recovered from strike action to push production up to 2.95 million barrels a day depressed prices.

"It is a jittery market that can be swayed by one story," he said.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez broke the news that the country's production had exceeded OPEC quotas, after having fallen to record lows during a crippling strike.

"Good news," Chavez announced from the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas. "Oil production in Venezuela has reached 2.95 million barrels per day."

Expectations of lower fuel demand as spring approached in the northern hemisphere also weighed on prices, traders said.

"There are milder temperatures forecast in the States driving the natural gas, heating oil and crude lower," said Prudential Bache trader Tony Machacek in London.

"There is also talk about further delays of the UN making any decision on Iraq or tabling any further steps," he said.

Matthew Parry, commodities expert at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, said prices would probably rise to $US40-45 per barrel if and when conflict breaks out.

Venezuelan oil production well over two million barrels per day

www.vheadline.com Posted: Thursday, March 13, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

Depending on if you believe government or opposition estimates, Venezuela is currently producing well over two million barrels of oil per day, with the government putting the figure at 2.6 million and rebel Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) executives insisting 2.1 million. 

Although both estimates are still well below output levels of 3.2 million barrels per day before the opposition work stoppage began on December 2, they still represent a huge improvement on mid-December levels of 150,000 barrels per day and show PDVSA has been able to recover production significantly faster than may analysts had expected. 

It had been assumed by many that a recover back to around 1.5 million barrels per day would be quite easy, but due to a lack of experienced personnel several analysts claimed that above that figure a recovery would be very slow as older more complex wells would be harder to get back on line. 

Another important factor is the fact that the recovery has come despite the sacking of around 16,000 of the pre-strike 38,000 workers, as the government seeks to cut the company's overheads and make it more profitable. 

Saudi Top US Oil Supplier In Jan With 21% Market Share -EIA

sg.biz.yahoo.com Thursday March 13, 8:45 PM (This article was originally published Wednesday).

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Saudi Arabia remained the top supplier of U.S. imported crude oil in January, as the kingdom boosted supplies to make up for the paralysis of Venezuela's exports.

According to company-level import data released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, the U.S. imported 1.820 million barrels a day of Saudi crude, up from 1.815 million barrels a day in December.

Saudi Arabia accounted for 21% of U.S. crude oil imports in January, which totaled 8.551 million barrels a day.

Imports from Venezuela, where the oil industry was crippled by a general strike aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez, fell sharply from December's already low levels to just 390,000 barrels a day, about a quarter of the volume typically imported from the Andean nation.

Venezuela has managed to boost oil output substantially since the general strike ended a month ago.

As reported, Venezuela's crude oil production stood at 2.1 million barrels a day Tuesday, about two-thirds of the country's prestrike output, a former trading manager with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (E.PVZ) told Dow Jones Newswires.

The government puts output at around 2.65 million barrels a day and has lifted the force majeure on crude oil exports.

Crude oil imports from Canada, the No. 2 U.S. supplier, jumped to 1.621 million barrels a day in January from 1.490 million b/d in December. Imports from No. 3 Mexico fell, to 1.566 million b/d from 1.734 million b/d.

Nigeria came in fourth, with 798,000 b/d of crude oil imports, up from 625,000 b/d the month before.

Imports from Iraq also jumped, even as the U.S. prepared for a possible attack on the Persian Gulf country. The U.S. imported 600,000 b/d of crude oil from Iraq in January - about one out of every 14 barrels brought into the U.S. that month - up from 366,000 b/d in December.

Valero Energy (VLO) was the top U.S. importer of Iraqi crude, bringing in 140,000 b/d. ConocoPhillips (COP) was second, with 101,000 b/d.

Third was Atofina, the chemical branch of TotalFinaElf (TOT), which imported 78,000 b/d of Iraqi crude. BP PLC (BP) brought in 62,000 b/d, and Royal Dutch/Shell (RD) unit Motiva Enterprises LLC brought in 65,000 b/d.

Citgo, the U.S. refining and marketing arm of PdVSA, turned to Iraq to make up for some of its lost Venezuelan supply. Citgo brought in 34,000 b/d worth of Iraqi crude in January.

Total U.S. oil imports were down 68,000 b/d from December.

-By Andrew Dowell, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4430; andrew.dowell@dowjones.com

Curacao Refinery Struggling After Strike

www.wilmingtonstar.com Last changed: March 12. 2003 5:43PM By KATY DAIGLE Associated Press Writer Curacao's refinery is to resume full production in the next several days, after weeks of sitting idle as a strike stemming from political strife in Venezuela blocked crude oil supplies for two months. But it's going to take time for profits to return to Refineria Isla, which was forced to give up most exports and restrict shipments to a small domestic market and Venezuela. "When the strike started we lost all of our international clients," said Norbert Chaclin, the refinery's managing director. As a result, it is suffering monthly losses of about $9 million, he said. The refinery, owned by the local government of this Dutch Caribbean island and leased by Venezuela's state-run Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., is processing 150,000 barrels of crude a day. By next week, it should have its main catalytic cracker back online after routine maintenance and expects to turn out its full capacity of 210,000 barrels a day, Chaclin said. The ramped up production could provide some relief to energy markets. Gasoline prices have soared in recent months as crude oil costs have climbed to levels not seen since just before the Gulf War amid heavy demand and tight inventories. Oil production dropped drastically in Venezuela during the strike, called Dec. 2 by opponents of President Hugo Chavez to press demands for early elections. Shipments stopped arriving in Curacao for several weeks in December and January but resumed before the strike petered out last month. The refinery currently is sending regular shipments of gasoline and jet fuel to Venezuela, located just 37 miles away. Traditionally, it sends 43 percent of production to the Caribbean and Central America, 20 percent to the United States and Canada, 22 percent to South America, and sells the rest in Curacao and neighboring Bonaire. A sprawling expanse of metal pipes, chemical converters and concrete by Willemstad's bay, the refinery is Curacao's largest business and employer, with 1,030 workers and about 350 contract workers. When running normally, it contributes an estimated $120 million a year to the economy through contractor fees, salary taxes and duties, said Chaclin. The slowdown has hit the federation of the Netherlands Antilles, including four islands and St. Maarten. Its revenues from taxes and shipping fees have dropped about 15 percent each month since December, Economy Minister Errol Cova said. The refinery produces gasoline, lubricants, jet fuel, propane and other products. It also is one of the largest oil transshipment terminals in the Caribbean, with storage capacity of 17 million barrels. Before the strike, Venezuela was the world's fifth largest oil exporter and a major source for the United States, accounting for about 14 percent of U.S. oil imports last year or 1.3 million barrels of crude and refined gasoline.

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