<a href=www.washingtonpost.com>washingtonpost.com Friday, May 30, 2003; 7:15 AM

The long-sought beginning of the end of President Hugo Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution" is at hand. On Thursday, Chavez's government signed a plan brokered by the Organization of American States that could conclude his contentious reign by December.

The agreement, which some liken to a virtual suicide pact for the Venezuelan president, requires Chavez to submit to a binding referendum on his tenure. If he loses the referendum and is then not allowed on the ballot in a new presidential election, he will be out of office halfway through his current term. That is, if Chavez intends to comply and not simply use the agreement to dupe the international community into going away and further weaken his already battered opponents.

U.S. officials and others in the international community--as well as the Venezuelan opposition--say they will press Chavez relentlessly to abide by the outcome of the agreed-upon "electoral exit." And so they should. But this time they should really be careful not to overplay their hand.

With Chavez's political end in sight, the temptation for the opposition will be to denigrate anything and everything that he represents. But such actions risk alienating his supporters and ignore the opposition's own end of the bargain, which in both cases could help Chavez survive or give him an excuse to withdraw from the agreement.

Disillusioned with politicians that ignored their plight for years, millions of Venezuelans turned to Chavez and his promise to end the cruel irony of dirt-poor life in an oil-rich land. On these sentiments alone, Chavez remains popular among the disaffected. Personalizing opposition to him or offering little to the poor directly will cement their commitment to Chavez.

According to the agreement, the opposition must refrain from actions that may incite more violence, and also concentrate efforts to ensure that the media will play an impartial role in the events to come. Any backtracking by the opposition or Chavez will only make things worse for the country now.

The Bush administration's policy on Venezuela has caromed clumsily between two regrettable extremes: benign neglect and diplomatic blunder. More recently, it seems to be echoing the Venezuelan opposition's doubts that Chavez will stick to the plan if he believes he may not come outvictorious.

With that in mind, some observers outside the administration have begun to suggest threatening an oil boycott to keep him from balking. After all, the thinking goes, the United States is Venezuela's No. 1 customer, and as such carries one "big stick" to pummel Chavez into compliance.

But so far there is no indication the Bush administration is considering such an ill-advised tactic that would mostly hurt those Venezuelans already at the bottom, those who already suspect that Washington never fully trusted their ballots democratically cast for Chavez.

Viewed from here, their situation has hardly improved under Chavez. His social vision had merit, yet after more than four years in office, often appearing more concerned with antagonizing his enemies than with governing, he has strayed far from the path of responding to popular needs and discontent.

Chavez has presided over the worst economic contraction in his nation's history. Last Friday, Venezuela's Central Bank reported a 29 percent drop in the country's gross domestic product during the first quarter of this year. At its worst, Argentina's GDP dropped 20 percent in four years.

A great measure of the blame also falls on the shoulders of the opposition that organized a destructive strike at the end of last year aimed at forcing Chavez out, regardless of the economic cost to the country. With elections imminent, now is the time for the opposition to prove that it stands for something and not just against Chavez.

Opposition forces have begun efforts to gain ground among Chavez's supporters and to show commitment to a social agenda. Yet the initial, tragic results have only proved the complications of the task. One person died and many others were injured during a rally organized by one opposition party last weekend in a Caracas slum.

Ironically, the first phase of Chavez's "electoral exit" may be the easier one for the opposition--winning the referendum. A scant 30 days later, opposition forces would then have to unite behind a candidate. If they fail, and if Chavez gets on the ballot through Supreme Court intervention, the opposition's actions might prove to be its own undoing. This week's agreement then would have been merely a beginning with no end in sight.

Marcela Sanchez's e-mail address is desdewash(at symbol)washpost.com.

<a href=>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Friday, May 23, 2003 By: Robert Reynolds

Date: Fri, 23 May 2003 04:50:59 -0400 From: Robert Reynolds mdog218@bellsouth.net To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Carville joins the effort to overthrow President

Dear Editor: Who am I to tell a man how he should earn his money?   Who am I to question whether a man should take blood money that comes from the backers of the anti-Chavez movement: the CIA, the US Republican Party, and the Venezuelan oligarchs?

Just because a man espouses liberal causes and claims a position as a spokesman for liberal ideals does that mean he should pass up an opportunity to make money?   Politics is politics, and business is business, no?

<a href=www.vheadline.com>So let Carville work for the anti-democratic forces in Venezuela. Let him help overthrow the elected government.  Let him get in bed with the Republican Party and the CIA.  Let him enjoy his blood money.

But never again will I listen to a word he says or read a word he writes.

By taking this position he is selling his name in addition to his skills. They could have hired his wife Mary Maitland, but they wanted his name to legitimize their anti-democratic efforts. Politics makes strange bedfellows indeed!

This is just more proof that the Democratic Party needs to purge itself of the DLC opportunists and get back to supporting only real Democrats.

Robert E. Reynolds mdog218@bellsouth.net Orange Park, Fl

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, May 04, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Primero Justicia (PJ)  has come under heavy fire from the opposition camp for holding its own march on May 1 and now general secretary, Luis Mejias has announced that it is starting its own recall referendum in earnest. 

Mejias points out that  PJ will base its referendum campaign called "Recall 2003" on three points: 

• Pressure on international community
• Support government-opposition negotiations
• Setting up "Yes" Committees

"Recall 2003" national coordinator, Carlos Ocariz says there are only 100 or so days to hand the National Electoral College (CNE)  signatures backing up a request for a recall referendum .... "we are going to set up committees in 80,000 communities ... the only way to ensure the success of the recall referendum is through the communities."

Primero Justicia has set a target of votes for each committee, which will come out at 4 million votes nationwide.

Like Proyecto Venezuela, it seems that PJ is loosening contacts with Coordinadora Democratica (CD)  to define its own image among opposition voters. 

A recent poll has placed Accion Democratica (AD) as the favorite opposition political party. PJ is down on the list, even though leader Julio Borges is high on the individual lists of presidential candidates.

2001 Carlos Ball

Miami (AIPE).- A fines de abril me invitaron a participar en una conferencia en Nueva Orleans sobre el imperio de la ley ("rule of law"), donde traté de explicar a una audiencia norteamericana la triste historia contemporánea de Venezuela. Esa nación que en los años 50 tenía un nivel de vida más alto que España e Italia -atrayendo a cientos de miles de inmigrantes-, hoy es un país de emigrantes que compite en pobreza y desempleo con Cuba y Haití. ¿Qué pasó?

Leyendo los papeles de mi fallecido hermano Luis Henrique, encontré una historia fascinante que me hizo comprender mejor el "camino de servidumbre" por el que avanza Venezuela. Mi hermano, quien era 9 años mayor que yo, relata su visita a nuestra madre en la clínica, en 1939, cuando yo nací. Cuenta que al entrar al hospital saludó a una muchacha con su recién nacido en los brazos. La reconoció como trabajadora de la fábrica de nuestro padre y me enteré que, en aquellos tiempos, esa empresa pagaba el 95% de los gastos médicos de todos sus trabajadores, quienes recibían atención médica en la Policlínica Caracas, el mejor hospital privado del país.

Fue después de la Segunda Guerra que por presiones del Departamento de Estado se creó en Venezuela el Instituto de Seguros Sociales para socializar la medicina y centralizar las pensiones. Entonces, la ONU recomendó al médico chileno Salvador Allende para asesorar en la creación del instituto. Los impuestos a las nóminas de sueldos pronto eliminaron todos los programas privados de atención médica y sólo aquellos con altos ingresos pudieron desde entonces tener acceso a clínicas privadas.

Venezuela fue un país agrícola y pobre hasta los años 30, cuando el auge petrolero lo convirtió en una de las economías de más rápido crecimiento. Un ingrediente importante de esa prosperidad fue la fijación del valor del bolívar en un gramo de oro desde 1879 y cuando se fundó el Banco Central, en 1940, se tuvo el cuidado de crearlo fuera del alcance de los políticos. Así, la inflación venezolana durante los años 50, nuestra edad de oro, fue de menos de 1% anual, inferior a la de Estados Unidos.

Baja inflación es evidencia de respeto por los derechos de propiedad. Los políticos latinoamericanos saben que la inflación es la manera fácil de robar, perjudicando especialmente a los más pobres, quienes casi todo lo tienen en efectivo y en cuentas de ahorro, no en inversiones ni propiedades. Por ejemplo, el gobierno argentino le borró 17 ceros a su moneda entre 1971 y 1991.

La primera Constitución venezolana de 1811 se parecía a la de Estados Unidos, protegiendo a los ciudadanos de sus gobernantes, en lugar exhortar a los políticos a alcanzar la utopía socialista. 25 constituciones más tarde, la "bolivariana" de Hugo Chávez arruina a cualquier gobierno que intente cumplirla.

Otro factor histórico importante es que en Venezuela heredamos la ley española donde el subsuelo es propiedad del rey. Esa misma ley le permitió al general Lázaro Cárdenas expropiar en México las concesiones petroleras en 1938, por lo que las grandes petroleras se mudaron a Venezuela.

Pero nuestros gobiernos democráticos se copiaron todo lo malo del PRI mexicano: En 1960 el ministro de Energía y Minas fundó la OPEP y, al año siguiente, el presidente Betancourt anunció el fin de las concesiones, lo cual causó la primera devaluación del bolívar del siglo XX.

La participación venezolana en el comercio petrolero internacional cayó de 60% a fines de los años 50 a 3% hoy. La politización del Banco Central bajo la presidencia de Carlos Andrés Pérez condujo a frecuentes devaluaciones, significando una pérdida de 53.000% del valor del bolívar frente al dólar, más aún en el mercado negro surgido recientemente por el nuevo control de cambios. Desde 1969 se politizó también el sistema judicial, hasta el punto que los juicios los ganan quienes gozan de contactos políticos o suficiente dinero para comprar al juez, mientras los pobres se pudren en las cárceles.

Hoy, el presidente de Pdvsa -la petrolera estatal- es Alí Rodríguez, el terrorista que en los años 60 dinamitaba los oleoductos. Luego de despedir a 18 mil empleados, cuenta con el apoyo logístico y técnico de ExxonMobil y de Shell para volver a operar los pozos y las refinerías, tras la huelga de dos meses. Lenin nos advirtió que los capitalistas siempre están dispuestos a vender la soga utilizada para ahorcarlos.

Chávez es la conclusión del camino al socialismo por el que Venezuela avanzó durante más de cuatro décadas: Politización de la justicia, educación pública como órgano de propaganda política, inflación, controles de precios, de cambios y demás violaciones de los derechos de propiedad, en supuesta búsqueda de "justicia social". Hoy Chávez redistribuye la pobreza.

(*) Director de la agencia AIPE y académico asociado del Cato Institute. © www.aipenet.com

<a href=www.stcatharinesstandard.ca>The Standard By Bernie Puchalski Tuesday, April 22, 2003 - 02:00

Local Sports - Dusk is rapidly approaching as Manny Rumbos steers a Niagara Academy of Tennis van into the parking lot behind the Days Inn Prudhommes Landing. Smiling faces greet his arrival and he’s welcomed by Spanish-speaking voices shouting “Ola.” Pouring out of a strip motel, which acts as the City of Toronto’s Birkdale Residence Out of Town Program for recent refugees to Canada, eight people pile into the van in anticipation of the short trip down Regional Road 24 to the tennis academy. Several are new to Canada while others, such as 33-year-old Silvio Pinzon, have been in the country for a few months becoming acclimatized and resolving their immigration status. “Hey, compadre,” yells out Rumbos, when he hears one of the van’s occupants has arrived two days ago from Venezuela, the country of his birth. Rumbos, the Tennis Pathways manager for the Niagara Academy of Tennis, is getting used to greeting new faces in his role with the Ontario Tennis Association program. The provincial body received a $350,000-plus grant from the Trillium Foundation and the Vineland club is the first to utilize Trillium funds for the introduction to tennis program. Refugees come to the tennis academy twice a week to learn tennis and socialize. About 25 to 30 show up for every session, with most coming from Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Columbia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Turkey and Israel. “They love it,” Rumbos says. “They can’t wait to play.” The program runs in nine-week rotations and the first session concluded its eighth week last Thursday. “I have a blast. This is the highlight of my week,” says Rumbos. “We’ve had a couple of kids who have arrived on a Monday and come here on Thursday night. They’re completely lost and the smile on the tennis court is the first one they’ve had in Canada. It’s a huge payback for everybody.” “Manny and his team are very good,” said Tania Valko, a shelter counsellor with the City of Toronto. “They find different ways of communicating.” The shelter, which can accommodate up to 54 families, houses refugees who arrive in Canada from border crossings in Windsor, Montreal, Fort Erie and Pearson International Airport in Toronto. They go through a screening process before being referred to the shelter by the City of Toronto’s Central Family Intake. Shelter residents spend their days working on their immigration applications and learning English at the St. Catharines Multicultural Centre. The children attend either St. Catharines Collegiate or Woodland School. The average stay is between six and eight weeks, and the tennis program is a welcome reprieve from boredom. “I think they’re more pro cricket players than tennis players, but they’re happy to come out, get in new surroundings and break tradition,” Valko said. “And there’s lots of intermingling.” For Pinzon, who arrived in Canada from Fort Erie with his pregnant wife and daughters aged 12 and two, the tennis lessons are eagerly anticipated. “It’s nice. It’s recreation and it’s a good distraction.” His family left Colombia because of repeated death threats from paramilitary groups. Pinzon, an agricultural engineer and his wife, a doctor, are hoping to train in Canada and resume their careers. For the OTA, the Tennis Pathways program’s goal is simple. “The main goal is to build healthier communities through tennis, and that’s why it was the biggest Trillium grant ever awarded to the sporting community,” said Flora Karsai, OTA Pathways manager. “It’s not just a learn-tennis program. It’s community building and getting people together.” And if it helps improve the calibre of tennis played in Canada, even better. “If we’re the first sport they are exposed to, then boom,” Rumbos said. “Out of 1,000 kids, 10 might become the next (Daniel) Nestor.” For the OTA, the Niagara Academy of Tennis program had obvious appeal. “In Pathways, it’s important to get different community leaders and communities involved in the program,” Karsai said.