Venamcham José Gregorio Pineda, Economista Jefe. José Gabriel Angarita, Economista.

En noviembre 21 de 2001, una sentencia de la Sala Constitucional del máximo tribunal, especificó que limitar las operaciones con moneda estadounidense era una decisión que escapaba de las manos del Gobierno y que cualquier medida, como el actual control de cambio, debía estar amparada por una ley que se aprobase en la Asamblea o por suspensión de las garantías económicas de Venezuela.

Actualmente existe una revisión de la legalidad del control de cambio implementado por el Ejecutivo el pasado 21 de enero, que podría implicar una reapertura del mercado cambiario en condiciones no previstas inicialmente, que de no considerar las previsiones correspondientes podría ser tan perjudicial como el mismo control.

Después de 70 días de la medida, la dinámica del mercado nacional está afectada por una demanda de dólares represada que, en caso de que se reactive el mercado sin ejecutar ninguna acción de política cambiaria, ejercerá presiones sobre el tipo de cambio depreciando aún más al bolívar. Por esto muchos sectores se han pronunciado a favor de un sistema dual, con un tipo de cambio de 1.600 bolívares por dólar para la adquisición de bienes prioritarios y otro libre para el resto de las transacciones.

Es evidente que el control de cambio ha representado para la economía venezolana un duro golpe cuyos efectos no podrán ser revertidos en el corto plazo, inclusive si el TSJ lo declara inconstitucional.

Existe entonces la posibilidad de que el TSJ se pronuncie en contra del control de cambio. ¿Pero será posible qué dicha medida cambie en algo los efectos devastadores que la actual cesación de cambio tiene sobre la economía? La historia y el discurso oficialista nos hacen pensar lo contrario, "el control de cambio llegó para quedarse". Es lógico esperar que una sentencia desfavorable del TSJ, si la hubiera, no represente mayores cambios a la situación actual, ya que simplemente el mercado seguiría suspendido (al igual que lo está ahora) mientras se aprueba el control de cambio en la Asamblea Nacional.

Las perspectivas en torno al suministro de divisas no son alentadoras. No se observa una voluntad por parte de las autoridades en acelerar el proceso y últimamente vemos como comienzan las acusaciones entre los diversos entes involucrados sobre la responsabilidad de la inoperatividad del sistema.

La mejor alternativa es ejercer presión para que ocurra una flexibilización del sistema, mediante un sistema dual y acelerar el otorgamiento de las divisas, aprovechando las mejoras en la facturación de PDVSA y los aumentos de las reservas internacionales.

De no producirse dicha flexibilización podríamos estar en la irónica situación donde las reservas internacionales podrían estar en los niveles previos al paro (15.788 millones de dólares, solamente unos 725 millones de dólares más que el nivel al 28 de marzo de 2003) y el mercado continué sin suministros de divisas con las devastadoras consecuencias sobre el sector productivo.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Tuesday, April 01, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

Many foreign car manufacturers with plants in Venezuela have been forced to stop production over the past few days due to the lack of foreign currency needed to buy in vital parts to continue the assembly of vehicles as the Currency Administration Commission (Cadivi) still hasn't made foreign currencies available after nearly seven weeks of trading suspension. 

• General Motors has already been forced to halt operations and Ford Motors and Toyota are expected to follow suit over the next few weeks if dollars are not made available soon. 

The sector has been hit hard over the past few months with economic woes and the two month long opposition work stoppage taking a serious toll on sales.

Opposition leaders have widely criticized the controls, stating that they will force many Venezuelan businesses to close, but the government insists that they are necessary to protect international reserves.

<a href=www.autonews.com>Reuters / March 31, 2003 CARACAS, Venezuela -- General Motors' Venezuelan unit, the largest vehicle assembler in the South American country, has temporarily halted production because of tight foreign exchange controls that are squeezing the local car industry, a spokesman said on Monday. General Motors Venezolana, C.A. suspended work late last week at its plant in Valencia, west of Caracas, and the stoppage would last until April 21 while the company attempted to resolve the problems caused by the currency curbs. Since President Hugo Chavez's government halted foreign currency trading in January, foreign-owned vehicle assemblers have been unable to import essential parts due to the restrictions and a two-month delay in the allocation of dollars. "We have really been hurt by this delay," General Motors Venezolana's Marketing and Sales director Peter Friedrich told Reuters. As a result, the company had lost exports for March and April and had suspended investment plans for 2003 until the situation in the Venezuelan market became clearer. Another important local assembler, Ford Motor de Venezuela, S.A., a unit of Ford Motor Co., said it was also concerned about the restrictive currency control environment. "It's tight," said Ford Venezuela's Public Relations manager Ricardo Tinoco. Ford's assembly plant, which has scaled back operations to only three days a week, could continue to run through April. But if the government does not release dollars "very, very shortly," Tinoco said Ford might also have to consider alternative measures for the necessary auto parts imports. The shortage of hard currency only worsens an already bleak sales outlook for Venezuela's vehicle producers following more than a year of political turmoil and a two-month opposition strike that pushed the struggling economy even deeper into recession. Car sales in January and February totaled 8,212 units, a drop of 77.4 percent from the same period last year. The Venezuelan Automobile Chamber (CAVENEZ) is predicting a 30 percent decline in sales this year, which plummeted about 41 percent in 2002. Some Caracas car dealers are only selling a handful of cars a month compared to sales of 100-120 units a month in 2001, a year that saw an all-time sales record for the local market of 217,000 units. NO "LUXURY" IMPORTS But after 65 days during which not a single dollar was made available for business in Venezuela, the government currency control board Cadivi announced Friday it had started releasing foreign currency for essential imports like food and medicine. Companies in this oil-dependent economy that relies on imports for 60 percent of its goods and products have been forced to survive on their fast-dwindling inventories. But vehicle makers complain that the government, in its application of the currency controls, has only posted dollar import authorizations so far for a so-called family car program, covering cheaper vehicles sold at fixed prices. Dollars for the parts imports for high-priced vehicles have not been authorized, let alone released. Chavez, a left-wing populist first elected in 1998, has made clear he will use the currency controls to curb what he calls "luxury" consumption, concentrating instead on importing basic necessities for poorer sectors of the population. But Friedrich said the dollar import restrictions meant General Motors in Venezuela had been unable to export its Chevrolet Trail Blazer and Astra models to markets in Ecuador and Colombia, and this was bad news for the local economy. "The government hasn't done its homework," Friedrich said. His company had also experienced bureaucratic problems in formally registering on the list of importers and exporters requiring dollars to conduct business. Private sector business leaders have pilloried the currency controls as restrictive and unworkable, warning the dollar drought will put many companies out of business and swell Venezuela's jobless rate, which the government estimates at 16 percent. Private economists say the real figure is far higher. Product shortages could also arise in sensitive areas like food and pharmaceutical sectors, critics of the controls say. Businessmen and economists have severely questioned the technical ability of the currency board Cadivi, which is headed by retired army officer Edgar Hernandez, a political ally of former paratrooper Chavez who took part with him in a botched coup attempt in 1992. Opponents of Chavez, still bitter over the failure of the recent strike to dislodge him from office, accuse the president of using the curbs to starve his foes of dollars in a political vendetta. But in a television broadcast Sunday, Chavez brushed aside the heavy criticism of the currency controls and said the commission administering them was doing a "tremendous job." "These measures are here to stay," he said.

Source Monday March 31, 11:42 PM

CARACAS (Dow Jones)--General Motors Corp. (GM), Venezuela's biggest automobile manufacturer, has stopped producing vehicles at its local plants due to the lack of foreign currency to buy raw materials, local daily El Nacional reported Monday.

Ford Motor Co. (F) may have to shut production by the end of April, and the report said Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) is similarly affected.

Rafael Ortega, public relations head for GM, which sold 38,044 units last year, declined to comment on the story, saying he had to wait for authorization by Luis Costa, a director in charge of communications with the government.

But Ricardo Tinoco, spokesman for Ford, which sold 17,971 vehicles in 2002, told Dow Jones Newswires his company will decide in the next 10 days if it will have to halt production.

Toyota's General Manager for Marketing and Planning, Enrique Pinochet, was quoted in El Nacional as saying: "we'll produce in April, we have imported materials for April and May...(but) what's short is local materials because those producers haven't received dollars to buy their raw materials."

Pinochet couldn't be reached for comment. Toyota sold 20,934 units last year.

Ford's Tinoco said his company "has been having very open conversations with the government...nonetheless there still has been no dollars issued, but they keep saying dollars will be available."

Venezuela halted foreign exchange sales Jan. 21 as a precursor to capital and import controls which the government announced about three weeks later.

But the new exchange control commission, Cadivi, said last week - more than two months after the initial halt - that it has only just released about $5 million for imports and about $30,000 for students living overseas.

Venezuela's imports usually run about $1 billion a month, and account for some 60% of consumption.

Cadivi officials couldn't be reached for comment.

The currency and import controls are a bid to protect international reserves which stood at $13.5 billion March 27, according to the central bank.

Reserves were severely affected by a two-month general strike that began Dec. 2, which all but shut down Venezuela's vital oil industry, among many other sectors.

Opposition leaders are demanding President Hugo Chavez agree to early elections, blaming his left-leaning policies for the country's deepening economic crisis.

The economy contracted 8.9% in 2002, amid 17% unemployment, and 32% annualized inflation sparked by a 46% loss of value of the bolivar. The currency lost a further 25% this year before currency sales were halted.

Meanwhile an unofficial parallel market has developed with the bolivar trading at between VEB2300 and VEB2800 per dollar versus VEB1598 set by the government.

Chavez has said the problems are due to an "economic coup" led by his opponents.

El Nacional Website: www.el-nacional.com

• By Jehan Senaratna, Dow Jones Newswires; 58212 564 1339; jehan.senaratna@dowjones.com

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela´s Electronic News Posted: Monday, March 31, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

According to the Currency Administration Commission (Cadivi) president Edgar Hernandez the controls and application procedure for the approval of foreign currency purchases have finally been completed by the Commission, over six weeks after the Commission was originally appointed.

Hernandez insists that the delay has been necessary and wise and said that the new system will increase transparency in the authorization process which will see the bolivar initially trading at Bs.1,600.00 to the US dollar.

Approvals for imports, students abroad and special cases are set to commence shortly and agreements with currency exchange offices are currently being signed with a view to reinstating sales as quickly as possible.

As for exporters, from April 11 onwards they will be required to submit cargo manifests and bills to Cadivi for inspection and they will be permitted to keep hold of 10% of their dollar revenues.