allafrica.com The Monitor (Kampala) EDITORIAL March 14, 2003 Posted to the web March 17, 2003

Kampala

Pump prices are rising every minute. That is no exaggeration. There is no other way to describe the triple upward surge in fuel prices in the space of one month.

Unfortunately, the spiraling prices are riding on the crest of a depreciating shilling, a slump in volume and value of exports and the jitters of northern Uganda/DR Congo war-weary investors. Government military expenditure has gone through the roof.

The plummeting of the shilling to an all time low, at slightly more than Shs 2,000 to the dollar, is an early warning of future volatility.

Considering this all out blow to the economy, it is odd that central bank officials continue to say the fundamentals are right.

By pointing at projected increases in the value of exports and private transfer inflows, and an almost on-the-mark fiscal policy, the central bank may be looking at the tail of a fish which is rotting from the head.

Government must devise "Plan B" to counter the dire ramifications of price instability because fuel imports make up more than 30 percent of the value of our imports. Local dealers must constantly reposition in view of the oil workers' strike in Venezuela and the likely American attack on Iraq.

The point is that unless the government devises a mechanism, within the limits of market dictates, to re-assure the public of high but steady fuel prices, there is a likelihood of speculation-spurred hoarding of oil products and the accompanying hazard of disastrous fires.

Everybody recognises that the fuel sector can only get more volatile. In fact, some sector watchers claim that now is the time for government to encourage fuel rationing and increased use of shared transport.

Before we get there, however, the government could start by explaining the danger of daily price hikes on the economy. The oil dealers must make projections and raise prices in a more systematic fashion. Government's "Plan B" can also shore up further confidence by explaining to the public the level of fuel reserves it holds.

www.bday.co.za

LAGOS - Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell has evacuated staff from some production facilities in the swamps of southern Nigeria's Niger Delta amid violent protests, the firm said.

Tony Okonedo, a spokesman for Shell's Nigerian oil exploration and production arm, said: "On account of the security situation we are evacuating non-essential staff from flow stations."

Shell's move came after militant youths from the Ijaw ethnic group clashed with Nigerian naval patrols in the swamps south of the oil city of Warri, a major base for both Shell and the US oil firm ChevronTexaco.

The Shell spokesman could not say whether the evacuation would affect oil production, or how many staff had been moved. A ChevronTexaco spokesman said he was not aware of his firm taking similar measures.

The threat of war between the United States and Iraq and the ongoing political crisis in Venezuela has already sent world oil prices spiralling, and traders are nervously eyeing the unstable situation in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer.

Nigeria exports more than two million barrels per day, but violent unrest in the Niger Delta region often disrupts the activities of the multinationals working in the region.

The approach of next month's national elections, the first since Nigeria's return to civilian rule, has heightened tensions in an area where resentment against both the government and oil majors runs high.

Last week five people were killed in a gun battle between militant youths from the Ijaw ethnic group and the Nigerian navy, which has been deployed to protect oil facilities from attack.

And last month fighting between two more groups, the Itsekiri and the Urhobo, in the nearby oil city of Warri, left dozens dead.

The Ijaw have a longstanding complaint that their fishing communities have been polluted by the oil industry and claim they should be compensated by the oil giants.

A judicial committee set up by Nigeria's parliament last month called on Shell to pay $1.5 billion in compensation to the Ijaw.

But recent protests have been directed towards Nigeria's government and electoral authorities.

Ijaw leaders claim they have been marginalised politically by fraudulent voter registration and an unfair distribution of electoral constituencies, and marginalised economically by a bill which gives federal rather than state government control of revenue from off-shore oil.

www.thisdayonline.com By Collins Edomaruse in Lagos and Donald Andoor in Port Harcourt

Presidential candidate of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) yesterday in Port Har-court, Rivers State, lampooned the Federal Government over the resurgence of fuel crisis and said: "Obasanjo's government has no shame." The rally was, however, boycotted by former presidential aspirants: Chiefs Rochas Okorocha, Harry Akande, Nnia Nwodo and Edwin Ume-Ezeoke. Buhari, who made the criticism while flagging off his presidential campaign at the Liberation Stadium also dedicated the campaigns to Dr. Marshall Harry, South-South Presidential co-ordinator of the party who was assassinated Thursday morning in Abuja by unknown assailants. The exercise which was conducted amid tight security mounted by the Nigeria Police in all nooks and crannies of Port Harcourt and its environs, was also attended by the party's presidential running mate, Dr. Chuba Okadigbo, the National Chairman, Chief Don Etiebet, Chairman Board of Trustees, Admiral Augustus Aikhomu (rtd), presidential campaign co-ordinator of the party, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, gubernatorial flagbearer of the party for Rivers State, Chief Sergeant Awuse and the family of the slain ANPP chieftain led by his son, Mr Sunny Marshall Harry. All extolled his virtues and chorused that he did not die in vain. Buhari told the mammoth crowd at the Liberation Stadium that despite the brutal killing of Dr Marshall, "the ANPP family had decided to go ahead with the rally because he had done all the arrangements and there is no other better way to honour him than to hold the event ... but that the party will no doubt honour him at the appropriate time." He told the jubilant crowd that the PDP government had failed, in all its promises to the electorate and stressed that "the brutal killing of Dr Marshall as well as many other Nigerians was a clear manifestation that there is no security anywhere in this country, in the towns and in villages." He recalled that since the PDP government came to power, the nation has not known any peace "as the government has no solution," he said adding "there is no peace and harmony either in the country or among government officials themselves." Recalling the discordant tunes amongst the government officials over the ongoing fuel shortage in the country, Buhari noted how one government official attributed it to sabotage, another to the crises in Venezuela which has shot up oil prices and how another had promised Nigerians that the shortage wouldbe over in one week and queried "which one do we believe? ... This shows there is no harmony in this government. What a shame!" While dismissing the PDP government as the one that lacks focus and vision, he recalled that the stupendous amount spent on the turn around maintenance of our electricity plants have not produced any practical results while inflation is on an alarming increase, he said "four years is enough for any serious government to have brought about remarkable improvement in the lives of the citizens of this country." On allegations of religious bigotry and that he called on northerners to boycott the ongoing registration of Nigerians for the national identity card scheme "he said all these are acts of desperation." He explained that he was quoted out of context in Sokoto when he was addressing moslem faithfuls by a journalist "who was not even present and canot understand or speak Hausa language." He called on Nigerians to disregard allegations that he is not a democrat by arguing "if I were not a democratc, I could not have joined a political party to seek election and campaigning here and there and I would not have called for a free and fair elections." National Chairman of the party, Chief Etiebet who had earlier dedicated the rally to the slain ANPP chieftain called for three minutes silence in his honour and added "today is a day that Dr Marshall Harry always dreamt of." Etiebet in a lenghting warm tribute to the slain ANPP leader said his spirit will spur those of them alive to work harder to actualise his dream of winning the Presidency and governorship elections in all states in the coming elections. Son of the slain ANPP leader, Mr Sunny Marshall Harry who read the speech which was prepared by his father before life was snuffed out of him announced "The event we are witnessing today marks the beginning of the end of PDP government in this country." The late politician who extolled the exemplary leadership qualities of Buhari stated "the only thing against Buhari is that he is an upright person who has made transparency, accountability and discipline his everyday life." He stated further "it touches my heart to hear an incapable government asking of continuity ... Continuity of what? Continuity to wtich-hunt perceived opponents or continuity of insecurity?" Sunny who made his personal remarks over the death of his father before reading the prepared speech rhetorically thanked the killers of his father "I thank those who killed my father. He was a regional leader but now he is a national hero ... He was not a Martin Luther King but he had a dream to unite the people of the state ... I may not be a Marshall Harry and would not pray to be him and I am not happy that he is killed but I am proud to be his son." Okadigbo wo electrified the gathering with his theatrics both in speech and action said as the chairman of the Senate Committee on Ethnic and Communal Crisis, he had visited 23 riot spots and it is only those states that are being ruled by PDP that have crisis. He then queried those that are real trouble makers? Awuse, the Rivers gubernatorial flagbearer warned that whoever rigs the coming general elections is inviting chaos and instability. Those who witness the rally include former Chief of Army Staff, Major-General Victor Malu, Jerry Useni, Senators Gbenga Aluko, Rowland Owie, Daniel Saror, Khairat Abdulrazak, Musa Adede; Paul Unongo, all ANPP incumbent governors and gubernatorial flagbearers in all states. A curious development at the event is the absence of the party's former presidential aspirant who pulled out of the party's national convention at the Eagle Square, Abuja on January 7. The former aspirants: Chiefs Rochas Okorocha, Nnia Nwodo, Edwin Ume-Ezeoke and Harry Akande were quoted as saying that they shunned the Port Harcourt ceremony because the party has not taken any concrete steps at reconciliation. A top ANPP member, who pleaded anonymity, told THISDAY that: "The former presidential aspirants are still not happy with the party. "The ANPP leadership has not made any concrete plans to bring them back to the fold. "They are also bitter because they (former presidential aspirants) feel their views are no longer needed as if they are not running for the presidential elections," he concluded.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 03.07.03, 7:32 AM ET By Barbara Lewis LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Nigerian oil production will be at least as high in April as in March, with the tally for both months expected to be near 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), well above its official OPEC quota, traders said on Friday. Dealers said that they were still piecing together newly-issued April loading programmes, but it appeared that there would again be an abundant supply of crude. "Definitely there is at least as much crude as in March and April is a slightly shorter month," said one trader. "In all there will be about 2.3 million barrels per day, possibly more." "We don't have the complete picture, but I would think that levels will be at least as high as in March," said another. Traders have said Nigerian oil production has risen by some 200,000 bpd following the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decision in January to step up production. At roughly 2.3 million bpd, Nigeria's estimated output is in excess of its February 1 OPEC quota of 2.0 million bpd, with production boosted by new oil coming onstream.

NEW FIELDS Exxon's Yoho field, which produced three cargoes in March, is scheduled to pump another three in April, amounting to close to 100,000 bpd, dealers said. Exxon Mobil Corp in February announced it had started production from the Yoho development offshore Nigeria, which has recoverable reserves of about 400 million barrels of a crude somewhere between Qua Iboe and Brass River in quality. Royal Dutch/Shell's new EA field has come onstream more slowly, with only one cargo traded so far since first oil was achieved on December 14. Dealers said they had not yet seen an April programme for EA, though it was possible there would be one cargo. Shell has said the field would eventually increase Nigeria's oil production capacity by some 140,000 bpd, but a spokeswoman said she was awaiting information and could not yet comment on production. Dealers are also waiting for Agip's new Abo field to begin producing, with the first cargo expected in May, traders said, while TotalFinaElf is scheduled to start production from its 125,000 bpd Amenam field around June. Precise monitoring of the size of Nigeria's crude loading programme is notoriously difficult as extra cargoes are issued after the formal schedule. The consensus in the market, however, is that Nigeria is pumping almost as much as it can in the current climate where West African crudes are seen as a safer alternative to Middle Eastern barrels. Operators are also keen to justify high start-up costs, traders say. OPEC agreed in January to raise production by seven percent to stave off an oil price shock threatened by the strike in Venezuela and a possible war in Iraq. The cartel meets again next week, with some member countries favouring a de facto temporary suspension of quotas should a war in Iraq shut in Baghdad's exports, a loss that would test the 11-member group's capacity limits. Nigerian Presidential Adviser on Petroleum and Energy Rilwanu Lukman said in February Nigeria could quickly raise its output to 2.5 million bpd if necessary.

www.gamji.com by Ahmed

The NNPC Group Executive Director of Refinery and Petrochemicals, Alhaji Mansir Ahmed, has attributed the present fuel scarcity to increased domestic consumption.

Briefing newsmen at the ongoing Kaduna International Trade Fair on Wednesday, Ahmed said the consumption rate had increased from 18 million litres to 26 million litres daily.

He also said consumption usually increased during festivities such as Sallah and Christmas to about 30 million litres per day.

Ahmed explained that while the country now consumed 26 million litres daily, it could only produce about one half of that quantity.

He said preparations by the U.S. to attack Iraq made it impossible for petroleum production to circulate within OPEC member states, thereby contributing to the factors causing fuel scarcity in the country.

The director further said because of the impending war against Iraq, Nigeria could not import fuel to complement domestic production in January and February.

He said Nigeria could not also import fuel from Venezuela to address the present shortage because the South American country too had product shortages resulting from disruptions in its system.

Ahmed appealed to Nigerians to exercise patience as efforts were being made by the NNPC to ensure adequate supply of fuel throughout the country.