he Daily Times of Nigeria Gabriel Osu

Another day, another problem. A new week, another new problem. That’s the up and down, on and off system, in which Nigerians have been living for the past few months. The major fear and obstacle that has been ticking along with their heartbeat is the April Polls, which is staring us in the face. It is a required constitutional duty, which must be performed, but the very mention of the polls is pumping up pressures and injecting fears into the system of the masses.

On the one hand, there are daily admonitions, calling on the parents to steer off their children from violence. The aspirants themselves condemn violence and killings in their silent moments of reflection and during their campaign stints.

The clerics have added their voices pleading that the elections should be executed without violence. The fear of the masses is that these pleas seem to have fallen on deaf ears. The country continues to roll downhill like a vehicle without an effective braking system.

The more we all pay lip service pretending we want a smooth and peaceful election, the more the papers report fresh acts of gangsterism, arson and killings. Let’s take it from the basics, opponents posters are defaced or ripped off. And surprisingly some supposedly responsible office holders take responsibility for such reckless acts by claiming that the poles on which the posters were pasted belong to the government. Where do we go from the poster war, when as a nation we cannot tolerate the posters of opponents.

More threatening news. Arms and ammunition are discovered daily along our borders. The only event which warrants the importation of arms is the impending elections. It is now clear that the politicians are determined to fight the election beyond the ballot boxes. For them it is a do or die battle and they are prepared to sacrifice all and destroy everything around in order to become political office holders. The Inspector-General of Police continues to assure the people that his Force is ready to enforce order during the election. But his words do not match his actions.

Put simply, the Police looks helpless, ineffective and ill-equipped. Here is a Force that has not been able to unravel political murders committed under their very nose. This is a Force that does not have its ears to the ground, it only jumps to alert after the act has been committed. Promises are given that the killers would be “fished out soon”. But the people now know that nothing serious follows such promises.

Time blurs the promises and the atrocities wear away until we are rudely awaken to the reality of our insecurity by the killing of another political personality. We have suggested that what the nation needs now is divine intervention, since all our utterances and actions point to an April mayhem. Apart from the self-made political imbroglios, other impediments and dangerous signs are gradually enveloping us.

Take the fuel monster which we thought had been conquered months ago. It has suddenly resurfaced in our midst and those in charge do not appear to have “medicine” to ward it off. On its first menacing reappearance, the NNPC big men calmed our nerves. They told all fuel users that Nigeria had enough of the stuff in store. They said there was no cause to worry. The scarcity and rowdiness subsided. There was a sigh of relief and the NNPC men were justified. We thought they knew their onions. Before we had time to laugh over our ugly experience, fuel scarcity was back with us and this time around, it looks as if it is here to stay.

Gradually, Nigerians have grown not to trust the many utterances of those who lead them. For instance, while NNPC was beating its chest that we have sufficient fuel in the country, the President had a different view. He admitted there was shortage of fuel in the country. He however attributed the shortage to the handiwork of his enemies. The message was echoed the campaign podiums and we went back to business as usual.

Today, it is a different tune we are hearing. The fuel problem we are now told should be attributed to the United States, Iraq and Venezuela. But some of our more discerning citizens are wondering why there is no shortage of fuel in the US, Iraq and Venezuela. So our fate is now tied to the happenings in foreign lands; the only consolation being the assurance that the fuel situation will normalize before the election. This is a clear message to the masses to adjust to more sufferings, higher cost of transportation and general difficulties imposed on them by inefficient and insensitive leadership.

Finally, the threat of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), to start another round of strike over increased pay, is scheduled for April this year. Those who know the NLC do not think the threat is an April Fool joke. The students, parents and the public are so used to the ASUU strike that no one is talking about it again. At this point in time, only divine intervention can see us through all these social and political diversions and distractions.

Rev. Fr. Osu, Director, Social Communications, Lagos Archdiocese.

Vanguard (Lagos) Posted to the web April 1, 2003 Hector Igbikiowubo, With Agency Report Lagos

CONTINUED stiff resistance faced by coalition forces in Iraq and fresh reports of bloody unrest in Nigeria pushed oil prices higher yesterday as traders betrayed concern. The price of reference Brent North Sea crude oil for May delivery rose 77 cents per barrel from the previous closing to 27.12 dollars in late trading. New York's benchmark light sweet crude contract for May delivery crept up 24 cents to 30.40 dollars a barrel in early deals. The rises came despite assurances from the White House that there was no need yet for the United States to tap its strategic petroleum reserve. "We have seen no evidence to date of a severe supply disruption, nevertheless the experts continue to monitor it," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters. Traders were trying to sift through the reams of war news to work out how the campaign in Iraq was really progressing, said GNI trader Robert Laughlin.

"The interest is very much... in terms of the propaganda machine over the weekend, as the Americans still said the war effort is being successful despite the fact there appears to be a mini-ceasefire," he said. Advances by US and British troops towards Baghdad appeared to slow over the weekend, with some experts warning that supply lines were becoming stretched. Yesterday, British commandos saw fierce fighting as they launched a major assault on the key southern city of Basra.

Meanwhile, continued ethnic unrest in Nigeria, which has reduced the country's oil exports by more than a third, was also fueling concern, analysts said. Police in the troubled Niger Delta said that scores of people were feared killed over the weekend in clashes over land rights near Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital. "The market is up because people are still worried about the situation in Nigeria, where there was more violence over the weekend," said Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sieminski. "It means that the 800,000 barrels a day of production that was lost last week is still out, in contrast to statements Thursday and Friday suggesting that a compromise between ethnic groups and the government had been reached," he added.

For the moment, there were few real concerns about supplies, but more bad news could send prices soaring, Sieminski said. "There is still enough oil coming from Saudi Arabia and even Venezuela to keep the market supplied, but with Iraq out and the conflict in Nigeria still continuing, the market is tightly balanced, and if anything else should go on, we would see higher prices," he said. However, Prudential Bache broker Tony Machacek said he considered it unlikely that prices would go much higher on the back on new supply problems in Iraq. "So far, a lot of the oil fields appear to have been militarily secured, so it is unlikely that (Iraqi leader) Saddam (Hussein) or his army will be able to disrupt supplies from Iraq very easily," he said.

Fox News Channel Tuesday, April 01, 2003

NEW YORK  — Oil prices fell 4 percent Tuesday as Nigerian unions called off a planned general strike, raising hopes that oil production halted there by recent ethnic clashes might soon restart.

The move eased fears of further disruption to world oil supplies with Iraq's crude exports halted since near the start of a 13-day U.S.-led invasion.

U.S. light crude slid $1.26 a barrel to $29.78 while London benchmark Brent futures fell 82 cents to $26.36 a barrel. Oil prices are more that $10 a barrel below 12-year highs hit in late February.

Prices fell as Nigeria's biggest union called off a planned three-day strike. "News of the agreement on the Nigerian strike has given the market some breathing room," one London oil trader said.

Recent tribal clashes have shut nearly 40 percent of Nigeria's 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production for more than a week. The West African country is one of the top six oil suppliers to the United States and U.S. refiners need Nigeria's high-quality crude to build up gasoline stocks for summer.

Oil companies Shell and ChevronTexaco have said they will not resume operations from Forcados and Escravos in the western Niger Delta region until they can be sure of their staff's safety.

Jitters spurred by the Nigerian and Iraqi supply disruptions have helped support oil prices in recent days since the market fell 25 percent just before the the war when dealers took the view that Baghdad would not resist for long.

Tuesday's falls gained pace after Iraq's Information Minister delivered a television message from President Saddam Hussein, fueling speculation that the Iraqi leader may be dead.

"People interpreted the fact that Saddam Hussein did not deliver his own message as 'He is no longer with us,"' said a New York trader.

Prices have come under further pressure from signs that world oil supplies are sufficient to meet lower seasonal demand in the second quarter.

"What's driving prices right now is the offset between supply security fears, balanced against expectations of softer demand, which you normally get at this time of the year," said Kevin Norrish, energy analyst at Barclays Capital.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has compensated for lost Iraqi and Nigerian crude with increased supplies. Top world exporter Saudi Arabia in March hit its highest production level for 21 years.

"As far as the war is concerned, we have lost Iraqi supplies but clearly OPEC is still managing so far to make up for that," Norrish said.

Global energy demand on the 77 million bpd world market normally drops about 2 million bpd in the second quarter when warmer weather sets in the United States and Europe.

Demand then picks up again when gasoline consumption for motorists rises during the summer holidays.

Nigeria's high-quality crude, ideal for gasoline production, is missed because it is a popular feedstock among U.S. refiners.

Gasoline stocks in the United States are running well below year-ago levels as the world's biggest consumer of motor fuel gears up for peak demand.

"Looking at where U.S. gasoline inventories are and where prices are, lots will depend now on how soon Venezuela will get its gasoline production back to normal," Barclays' Norrish said.

Venezuela, struggling to get output back on stream after a crippling opposition strike, has said it will this week restart gasoline exports to the United States and expects all refining and exports to return to normal within four to six weeks.

The strike had contributed to extremely tight oil inventories in the West even before the war in Iraq.

Analysts polled by Reuters predict that U.S. government data due on Wednesday will show a large crude stock rise after a week of heavy imports.

Reuters Tuesday April 1, 4:01 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 4 percent on Tuesday as Nigerian unions called off a planned general strike, raising hopes that oil production halted there by recent ethnic clashes might soon restart.

The move eased fears of further disruption to world oil supplies with Iraq's crude exports halted since near the start of a 13-day U.S.-led invasion.

U.S. light crude slid $1.26 a barrel to $29.78 while London benchmark Brent futures fell 82 cents to $26.36 a barrel. Oil prices are more that $10 a barrel below 12-year highs hit in late February.

Prices fell as Nigeria's biggest union called off a planned three-day strike. "News of the agreement on the Nigerian strike has given the market some breathing room," one London oil trader said.

Recent tribal clashes have shut nearly 40 percent of Nigeria's 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production for more than a week. The West African country is one of the top six oil suppliers to the United States and U.S. refiners need Nigeria's high-quality crude to build up gasoline stocks for summer.

Oil companies Shell (London:SHEL.L - News; Amsterdam:RD.AS - News) and ChevronTexaco (NYSE:CVX - News) have said they will not resume operations from Forcados and Escravos in the western Niger Delta region until they can be sure of their staff's safety.

SADDAM SPECULATION

Jitters spurred by the Nigerian and Iraqi supply disruptions have helped support oil prices in recent days since the market fell 25 percent just before the war when dealers took the view that Baghdad would not resist for long.

Tuesday's falls gained pace after Iraq's Information Minister delivered a television message from President Saddam Hussein, fueling speculation that the Iraqi leader may be dead.

"People interpreted the fact that Saddam Hussein did not deliver his own message as 'He is no longer with us,"' said a New York trader.

Prices have come under further pressure from signs that world oil supplies are sufficient to meet lower seasonal demand in the second quarter.

"What's driving prices right now is the offset between supply security fears, balanced against expectations of softer demand, which you normally get at this time of the year," said Kevin Norrish, energy analyst at Barclays Capital.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has compensated for lost Iraqi and Nigerian crude with increased supplies. Top world exporter Saudi Arabia in March hit its highest production level for 21 years.

"As far as the war is concerned, we have lost Iraqi supplies but clearly OPEC (News - Websites)is still managing so far to make up for that," Norrish said.

GASOLINE

Global energy demand on the 77 million bpd world market normally drops about 2 million bpd in the second quarter when warmer weather sets in the United States and Europe.

Demand then picks up again when gasoline consumption for motorists rises during the summer holidays.

Nigeria's high-quality crude, ideal for gasoline production, is missed because it is a popular feedstock among U.S. refiners.

Gasoline stocks in the United States are running well below year-ago levels as the world's biggest consumer of motor fuel gears up for peak demand.

"Looking at where U.S. gasoline inventories are and where prices are, lots will depend now on how soon Venezuela will get its gasoline production back to normal," Barclays' Norrish said.

Venezuela, struggling to get output back on stream after a crippling opposition strike, has said it will this week restart gasoline exports to the United States and expects all refining and exports to return to normal within four to six weeks.

The strike had contributed to extremely tight oil inventories in the West even before the war in Iraq.

Analysts polled by Reuters predict that U.S. government data due on Wednesday will show a large crude stock rise after a week of heavy imports.

April 1, 2003 By SOMINI SENGUPTA <a href=www.nytimes.com>The new York Times

ESCRAVOS, Nigeria, March 29 — Across the river from a freshly razed village, the ChevronTexaco Oil Export Terminal sits like a ghost town at the edge of the vast Niger Delta.

The oil wellheads planted all along these rivers stand idle, like so many stiff, shadeless trees. The riverine villages are mostly deserted, the waterways mostly empty.

The technicolor oil spills that gloss miles of river and creek are one of the only reminders of the sweet, rich crude beneath these riverbeds that has made Nigeria the world's sixth-largest oil producer and the fifth-ranking supplier to the United States.

For two weeks, an intense spasm of political violence has shut down oil production here in the western Delta. Normally tenacious multinational companies like ChevronTexaco and Shell have evacuated all staff members and shut their facilities, even those more than 30 miles offshore.

All told, the uprising by a well-armed ethnic militia seeking to wrest power from the local government has stanched the flow of 800,000 barrels of crude oil a day, or 40 percent of this country's daily yield.

With stocks of crude oil and gasoline in the United States at their lowest in years, the shutdown could hardly come at a worse moment for Washington, which has increasingly turned to West Africa to diversify its oil supply beyond the Persian Gulf.

The disruption has set off already twitchy global oil markets, which jumped 12 percent last week on the prospect of having to absorb the shock from Nigeria as war roils Iraq and strikes and political tensions have hobbled another major supplier, Venezuela. It also explains why, for the oil industry, offshore oil exploration has become increasingly alluring, far from the glare of deprived Africans.

The oil installations here sit next door to some of the most destitute patches of this country, where villagers with no running water bathe, fish and defecate in rivers polluted by oil spills, either from the wellheads or the widespread illegal siphoning that enriches local gangsters.

Such vast wealth being drained from so poor a region has long been a volatile source of resentment for local people, who have occupied platforms and forced negotiations for profit-sharing in the past.

But this time, the conflict is between two local tribes, the Ijaw and the Itsekiri — one fishermen, the others farmers, who had lived peaceably for generations.

Neither disputes that the people of the Delta should profit from the wealth of this land. Rather, barely a month before elections, they are locked in a violent struggle over who should control the local government and the millions of dollars in patronage — and returned oil profits — that accrue from such dominion.

Even an Itsekiri partisan acknowledged the obvious. "Maybe if there had been no oil, these tensions would not have been created," said S. A. Ajuyah, 78, a retired state court judge.

The oil companies take pains to point out that, as far as they are concerned, they have no role to play in the dispute. "It's not community versus Shell," said Frank Efeduma, the spokesman for Shell Petroleum Development Company in Warri. "It's community versus community."

But the Ijaw see the oil companies as working hand in glove with their ethnic rivals, and vow to continue disrupting their operations. They decry the Itsekiri as part of a "triumvirate conspiracy" — along with the government and the oil multinationals — who have siphoned off a disproportionate share of oil company largesse.

"The Itsekiris enjoy employment more, they enjoy projects more," said Samson Y. Mamamu, a contractor by trade and a feisty Ijaw chief. "Why? They are the minority."

The Itsekiri, for their part, call themselves indigenes and accuse marauding Ijaw of trying to exterminate them as a way to gain control of the oil country.

"You cannot push us out of this homeland of ours," said Isaac Jemide, a lawyer and an Itsekiri chief. "If a percentage of the resources should come back to the owners of the area, the Itsekiris should be the beneficiaries, not the Ijaws."

The consequences of this tension have been unusually vicious. Ijaw militants have set upon Itsekiri villages, decapitating their residents, spraying them with machine-gun fire and rocket-propelled grenades, according to refugees who have fled to the port city of Warri. Itsekiri leaders estimate at least 200 casualties.

The Nigerian military, in turn, has attacked the Ijaw, pulling up to their villages in gunboats and opening fire, according to Ijaw leaders. Ijaw say up to 50 of their people were killed, forcing them to fire back with what they describe, with a wry smile, as their "spiritual stones and pebbles." The military reported 11 casualties in its ranks.

A cease-fire declared earlier this week seems to have brought a tense standstill. The Nigerian Navy maintains its blockade of the waterways. With fresh attacks reported this week, refugees are not flooding back home. Oil company officials say they will not resume operations until the safety of their workers can be assured. That is unlikely to happen until after the elections, scheduled to begin April 19.

The violence has not left the oil facilities untouched. Part of at least one property was set afire. A Shell helicopter, trying to evacuate employees, was shot at. A caterer who served the ChevronTexaco tank farm was killed. Two navy gunboats were docked in front of the Chevron terminal today, and soldiers bicycled through the sealed compound.

The competing claims of the groups are virtually impossible to verify, because waterways remain impassable. Journalists who flew by helicopter to the ChevronTexaco terminal, in an attempt to visit a razed Itsekiri village, were detained before being flown back to Warri in a company helicopter.

No ChevronTexaco representatives appeared before the journalists. A group of men in civilian dress, who refused to identify themselves except to say they worked for the government, angrily said the company would not allow any visitors to pass.

The Delta State governor, James Ibori, a veteran politician running for reelection and with legal troubles of his own, has offered to help address the Ijaw's grievances; he is widely perceived to be their favored candidate. But the Ijaw are hardly ready to call it quits.

Escorting foreign journalists this week to their headquarters, in a small fishing village called Okeronkoko, Ijaw militia leaders vowed to boycott the coming elections.

They also promised to keep up the agitation against big oil if their demands for greater political power are not met. "We will paralyze them," declared Kingsley Otuaro, the secretary general of the Federation of Niger Delta Ijaw Communities. "Even if everyone is killed, one or two will survive and create havoc on the oil industry."