Adamant: Hardest metal

OPEC to Press Non-OPEC Countries

Sun June 8, 2003 08:31 AM ET By Richard Mably

DOHA, Qatar (<a href=asia.reuters.com>Reuters) - OPEC producers at a meeting on Wednesday are set to pressure independent oil exporters to contribute to the cartel's next supply cut to allow for the return of Iraqi oil.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah made clear Sunday that major non-aligned producers would once again be called upon to help the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) defend its $25 a barrel target price.

"Yes. We require their support. I feel we have their support," Attiyah, also oil minister of Qatar, told reporters of OPEC's three leading rivals -- Mexico, Norway and Russia.

OPEC powers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela already began lobbying Friday when they met with non-OPEC Mexico in Madrid to discuss Baghdad's market re-emergence.

Iraq, recovering from the U.S.-led war, will resume oil exports in the middle of June, but shipments are expected to stay well below pre-war levels for several months.

Attiyah declined to comment on OPEC's likely decision on Wednesday, but with prices near the top end of OPEC's $22-$28 band some ministers have said there is no immediate need to reduce the 25.4 million barrels per day (bpd) output limit.

"We won't just cut for the sake of cutting," Attiyah said.

And with U.S. crude oil at over $30 a barrel, alarm bells are ringing in the world's biggest consumer nation as it heads into summer when gasoline demand rises and often pushes prices higher.

"I don't want to see my consumers angry, I believe the customer is always right," said the OPEC chief. "But we have to be careful about the balance between demand and supply."

OPEC has not needed to reduce production limits since late 2001, when it slashed supplies on condition that rival exporters Mexico, Norway and Russia contribute. The three resisted but joined the plan when prices started falling.

The three will be represented in Doha -- for the first time at an extraordinary meeting.

But the subject of oil market debate, Iraq, will not be present, an issue which has rankled Iraqi officials.

Attiyah acknowledged there has been no contact between OPEC headquarters and Baghdad since the U.S. occupation, but urged Iraq to get in touch.

"I did not receive any request from Iraq, but personally I'd be happy to talk to them," he said, adding he hoped Iraq would make OPEC's next scheduled meeting in September. "If they want to call, I would be very happy to receive them."

Venezuela, Saudi Arabia ask Mexico to toe OPEC's line

Taipei Times-REUTERS Sunday, Jun 08, 2003,Page 10

Oil prices hit 11-week highs above US$31 a barrel on Friday as OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Venez-uela sought assurances that non-member Mexico would follow the cartel in any move to tighten supply.

Renewed signs that looting and sabotage will disrupt the resumption of Iraq's oil exports further bolstered prices, which have gained 20 percent in the last month.

US crude futures jumped US$0.46 to US$31.20 a barrel, hitting its highest price since March 19. In London, benchmark Brent crude was US$0.36 higher at US$27.80 a barrel.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and his Venezuelan counterpart Rafael Ramirez met in Madrid with Mexico's Energy Minister Ernesto Martens ahead of next week's OPEC conference on third-quarter production policy.

"We are coming here before the OPEC meeting to discuss the world oil market. We are also in contact with Russia and Norway and I think we will get good results," Ramirez said.

Saudi Arabia and Venezuela want to lay the groundwork for contributions from non-OPEC producers should the return of Iraq push prices down later this year, officials at the talks said.

"That's the key, because it indicates non-OPEC producers may be willing to cooperate, if nothing else by giving lip service to jawbone the prices higher," said a New York trader.

With oil prices near the top end of OPEC's US$22 to US$28 a barrel band, some ministers have said they see no need for OPEC to cut production limits when it meets next Wednesday in Qatar.

Iraq announced on Thursday it would this month resume oil exports, which have been halted since mid-March. But a full recovery of its pre-war exports -- some 4 percent of globally traded oil -- appears distant.

Baghdad's top US adviser on oil said on Friday that well-organized saboteurs are targeting Iraqi oil facilities in a campaign designed to hamper efforts to revive crude exports as the country recovers from war.

"It is very difficult for me to identify who they are and what their motives are. I can only say their techniques appear to be very professional and aim at causing harm to significant and important installations," Phillip Carroll told reporters in an interview.

Oil markets have now more than reversed losses following US government data on Wednesday showing an unexpected rise in crude and gasoline supplies.

U.S. sees OPEC oil revenues up 19 pct in 2003

Reuters, 06.06.03, 4:32 PM ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rising world oil prices will boost OPEC's crude revenues for this year by 19 percent from last year, the U.S. government said on Friday.

The new forecast from the Energy Information Administration estimates OPEC will ring up $223 billion this year from oil exports, compared to $187 billion last year.

The Energy Department's analytical arm said the rise in OPEC's revenues is due in large part to an 11 percent rise in oil prices from last year.

Several factors have pushed prices higher: strong U.S. oil demand during a colder-than-normal winter, the disruption in Venezuela's oil exports from a workers strike, low U.S. oil inventories and the cutoff in Iraq's oil exports from the U.S.-led attack on that country.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, will account for the largest share of OPEC revenues at $70 billion, followed by Iran and the United Arab Emirates each bringing in $23.1 billion from oil exports.

The downside to higher oil revenues is that OPEC members will have a harder time implementing needed economic reforms, according to EIA.

"There is little doubt that pressures to make difficult political choices (like cutting popular state subsidies for food and fuel) tend to be lower during relatively prosperous times than in more difficult ones," the agency said.

The following table shows the EIA's projections for OPEC oil export revenues:

        OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUE

         (billions of dollars)

COUNTRY 2002 2003 PCT CHANGE Algeria 12.6 17.3 38 Indonesia 2.9 2.4 -17 Iran 18.7 23.1 23 Iraq 12.4 10.6 -15 Kuwait 11.6 15.4 32 Libya 10.8 12.9 20 Nigeria 17.1 20.4 19 Qatar 7.1 8.4 19 Saudi Arabia 55.0 70.0 27 UAE 18.7 23.1 24 Venezuela 19.7 19.3 -2 Total OPEC $186.6 $222.9 19

Saudi, Venezuela woo Mexico on oil output policy

Reuters, 06.06.03, 5:32 AM ET  By Tom Ashby MADRID, June 6 (Reuters) - OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were due to start talks with non-aligned Mexico on Friday to seek its contribution to future output restraints as Iraq returns to world markets, oil officials in Madrid said. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and Mexico's Ernesto Martens were awaiting the arrival of Venezuela's Rafael Ramirez for an afternoon meeting, they said. "These talks are about keeping non-OPEC on board. We want their participation in any future cuts should prices fall," said one official. No firm agreement on output is expected from Friday's talks. But Riyadh and Caracas will want to lay the groundwork for contributions from non-OPEC should the return of Iraq push prices down later this year, the officials said. "This is a sign that OPEC is saying: 'Either we go together or there is nothing'," an official from one of the countries said. In late 2001, OPEC agreed to a hefty output cut on condition that rival exporters Mexico, Norway and Russia contribute. All three joined the plan when prices started falling. The Madrid meeting comes ahead of next week's OPEC gathering in Qatar to decide third quarter cartel production. With oil prices near the top end of OPEC's $22-$28 a barrel band, traders say there appears no need for OPEC to cut supply immediately. Non-OPEC producers have been invited as observers in Qatar. The alliance between Saudi, Mexico and Venezuela dates back to the drastic output curbs of 1998 and 1999 that since have pushed prices above $25 a barrel on average for Brent. Saudi's Naimi fired a warning shot to non-OPEC this week at a conference in Azerbaijan where he called on emerging Caspian producers to cooperate on output policy or risk $10 crude. Iraq, recovering from the U.S.-led war, announced earlier on Thursday it would resume oil exports in the middle of the month. Mexico has been walking a tightrope between cooperating with OPEC to keep prices and revenues buoyant, and not upsetting the United States or hurting the world's largest economy. Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez said last month that Mexico's link with OPEC would weaken as North America becomes more of a single energy market. The message sent ripples of concern through OPEC. Venezuela's Ramirez plans to visit non-OPEC Norway to discuss output cooperation before arriving in Qatar for the June 11 OPEC meeting.

Oil prices rise as OPEC seeks cooperation

June 5, 2003, 11:28PM Houston Chronicle-Reuters News Service

NEW YORK -- Oil prices remained above $30 a barrel Thursday as OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela prepared to seek assurances from non-member Mexico that it would follow the cartel in any move to tighten supply.

A meeting today in Madrid between Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and his counterparts, Venezuela's Rafael Ramirez and Mexico's Ernesto Martens, comes just days before next Wednesday's OPEC meeting in Qatar to decide third-quarter cartel production.

The three countries were the architects of drastic oil output curbs in 1998 and 1999 that laid the groundwork for a five-year price boom and are regrouping to prepare the ground for the resumption of Iraq's oil exports.

Iraq earlier on Thursday announced it was tendering to sell 10 million barrels of crude stored at export terminals, its first oil sales since the U.S.-led invasion in mid-March.

Baghdad is aiming for some 1.5 million barrels per day of production by the end of this month, over half of that set for export, although continued looting in the southern region is hampering efforts to restart supplies, an official there said Wednesday.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude futures rose 69 cents to close at $30.74 a barrel.

July heating oil futures jumped 2.01 cents to 77.23 cents a gallon, while July gasoline futures climbed 2.09 cents to settle at 88.52 cents a gallon.

Natural gas futures finished at their highest closing price in nearly 13 weeks on speculation of warmer U.S. weather in the next two weeks.

Natural gas for July delivery rose 14.6 cents to settle at $6.521 per thousand cubic feet.

In London, July North Sea Brent futures gained 84 cents to $27.65 a barrel.

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