www.accessatlanta.com The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 3/10/03 By BRUCE STANLEY Associated Press

Vienna, Austria -- If war erupts in the Persian Gulf, OPEC will be hard-pressed to boost its oil production further to cover a simultaneous shortfall in crude exports from Iraq and northern Kuwait, an oil minister from one of the group's key members said Monday.

The United Arab Emirates, one of the few OPEC members with spare production capacity, is already approaching its limits, said the country's oil minister, Obaid bin Saif Al-Nasseri.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries must somehow weigh the impact of a possible U.S.-led war on Iraq when its representatives review their output quotas Tuesday at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria. Al-Nasseri's comments suggested that the United States and other major oil-importing countries would need to rely on their own strategic petroleum reserves as a cushion against a serious disruption in supply.

OPEC, which pumps about a third of the world's crude, raised its output target by 6.5 percent to 24.5 million barrels in January, in an effort to keep a lid on rising prices. Since then, worsening fears of a conflict have pushed prices to 12-year highs.

A war would almost certainly cut off Iraq's crude exports, currently totaling about 2 million barrels a day. With Venezuela's oil exports still recovering from a strike, OPEC would have to stretch to cover an interruption in Iraqi shipments.

However, Kuwait, which hosts most of the U.S. troops that are poised to attack Iraq, has said that in the event of war it would shut down its northern oil fields as a precaution against a possible Iraqi counterstrike. Such a step would reduce Kuwait's output by around 700,000 barrels a day, or about a third of its current production.

"It (would be) very difficult, I think," for OPEC to make up for lost barrels from both Iraq and Kuwait, Al-Nasseri told reporters as he arrived at a hotel in the Austrian capital. The United Arab Emirates' capacity of about 2.5 million barrels a day is already "about full," he added.

Aside from Saudi Arabia and perhaps Nigeria, most other OPEC members are already believed to be producing at their limits.

OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia, which by some estimates is pumping at a rate of 9 million barrels a day, could raise its output to 9.5 million barrels a day within a month and 10.5 million barrels a day within three months.

Importing countries have publicly expressed their desire for OPEC to maximize production if a war threatens supplies and causes prices to spike. U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, due this week in Vienna on separate business, said last week that he might meet here with oil ministers from leading OPEC producers.

Some analysts have suggested that large importing countries and OPEC -- two often adversarial camps -- might be aiming to coordinate an increase in OPEC output with a release of crude from importers' strategic reserves in an effort to head off a war-induced disruption.

Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, warned Monday that OPEC shouldn't make any decision that would look appear to support a U.S. invasion of Iraq, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported.

"OPEC must refrain from taking political measures," Zangeneh said, adding that "as far as the market fundamentals are concerned, there is no oil shortage in the market currently."

OPEC's biggest fear is that it might gear up to boost production just as seasonal demand starts to decline in the second quarter of the year. It worries that if Iraq were to resume exporting quickly after a war, the combination of surging supply and falling demand could trigger a price collapse.

April contracts of U.S. light, sweet crude were trading Monday at $37.80 a barrel in New York, up 2 cents from Friday's close. Brent crude futures for April delivery were up 6 cents at $34.16 in London.

www.canada.com Chris Varcoe CanWest News Service; With files from The Associated Press and Bloomberg News Monday, March 10, 2003

VIENNA - As the world marches towards war in the Middle East and oil flirts with $38 US a barrel, all eyes are on OPEC to open its taps this week.

But as oil ministers descend on Vienna for a critical meeting on Tuesday, many feel the situation is beyond the cartel's reach.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are already pumping at or near their full production capacity, as worsening fears of a U.S.-led war on Iraq have pushed prices to 12-year highs.

A conflict would almost certainly cut off Iraq's crude exports, currently totalling about 2.3 million barrels a day, and could decrease Kuwait's output by as much as 400,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, cold winter weather in North America has shrunk inventories. With Venezuela's oil exports still recovering from a strike, OPEC would be hard-pressed to cover a shortfall.

"That's one of the reasons now why the market is so incredibly nervous," said Orrin Middleton, an energy analyst at Barclays Capital.

"The real problem is how much can OPEC really do?"

Oil for April delivery rose 78 cents to $37.78 US a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange last week.

Rising oil prices are pushing up gasoline and home heating bills across North America, sparking concerns that escalating energy costs will squeeze the global economy.

OPEC supplies about a third of the world's oil, but some analysts estimate it has only 1.4 million barrels a day in readily available spare capacity. The U.S. and other large importing countries are co-ordinating plans to tap their petroleum reserves as the ultimate cushion against a major supply disruption, should fighting erupt in Iraq.

OPEC can help by deciding Tuesday to suspend its production quotas and produce flat out. But analysts say international politics has robbed the cartel of much of its influence.

"For once OPEC is in the back seat, looking out the window. The U.S. is in the front seat, driving the war wagon," said Leo Drollas, chief economist at the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies.

When OPEC oil ministers last met two months ago, they decided to increase the group's production target by 6.5 per cent to 24.5 million barrels a day, in the hope of keeping prices at or below $28 US a barrel. Prices have climbed steadily since then.

"The timing is rather difficult for them because they cannot pre-empt a decision that is not officially taken, which is a war," said Vera de Ladoucette of Cambridge

Energy Research Associates.

However, there may be some resistance to production increases. Algeria's oil minister said Sunday there will be enough oil in the marketplace, particularly during the April-to-June period when demand typically falls.

OPEC dreads a release of crude from importers' strategic reserves because such a step would reduce the cartel's control over supplies.

IEA countries have four billion barrels of strategic crude reserves. The United States has enough to cover 39 days of imports in case of a complete halt in foreign supplies.

Some analysts have urged importing countries to release oil from their reserves even before a war, to forestall a supply shortage or another spike in prices.

"In fact they should do it now," Drollas said, "before anything happens, because it takes time for the stuff to come through the system."

finance.news.com.au By Nigel Wilson March 11, 2003

THE Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose 124th Ministerial conference begins in Vienna today, is expected to stuggle to contain the runaway price of crude oil. War with Iraq is the dominant factor affecting prices. Low inventories coupled with high production from all OPEC members other than Iraq give the once all-powerful oil cartel little room to manoeuvre.

Last night, United Arab Emirates oil minister Obaid Bin Saif al-Nasseri said OPEC, which supplies one third of the world's oil, was operating at "almost full" capacity and would have "great difficulty" covering lost supplies from Iraq and Kuwait in the event of war.

This means OPEC cannot produce more oil to ease demand and lower crude oil prices, which have soared to highs not seen since the spike over $US40 a barrel during the 1990 Gulf War.

Crude prices have soared since January because of fears of a war on Iraq, which has the world's second-largest proven oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, and a general strike in Venezuela, which crippled production there.

The US Department of Energy estimates OPEC countries, excluding Iraq and Venezuela, hold between 2.1 and 2.5 million barrels a day of excess oil production capacity that could be brought online, the second lowest spare capacity level in the past three decades.

OPEC agreed in January to raise its combined output ceiling by 6.5 per cent to 24.5 million barrels a day to try to cool fevered world oil markets.

Oil from Iraq, one of the 11 OPEC members, is traded under a UN embargo that limits export sales. The Australian

www.businesswire.com LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 10, 2003--

Cartel's ability to meet demand could be 'sorely tested'     OPEC's eleven members, including Iraq, pumped 27.03-mil b/d in February, 1.32-mil b/d up on January's 25.71-mil b/d, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed March 7.     Platts is the energy information, research, consulting, and marketing services unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP).     Excluding Iraq, the ten members with quotas pumped 24.52-mil b/d over the month, pushing production up by 1.31-mil b/d from their January level of 23.21-mil b/d to meet their collective 24.5-mil b/d ceiling, which came into effect at the beginning of February, the survey showed.     Venezuela, recovering from an oil strike that reduced its production from 2.9-mil b/d in November to as little as 650,000 b/d in January, accounted for more than 60% of the additional production as it averaged 1.49-mil b/d in February.     With a possible war in Iraq looming, oil markets are focused on OPEC's ability to meet a potential supply shortage if Iraqi exports are halted.     "It seems that OPEC will be able to cover any loss of Iraqi supply in the event of a war. But the latest rise in the group's production suggests that if oil production and exports are disrupted in other countries, OPEC's ability to ensure markets are adequately supplied will be sorely tested," said John Kingston, Global Director of Oil for Platts.     Saudi Arabia holds the largest volume of spare output capacity, but this is shrinking as the Kingdom raises output. Some analysts believe Saudi production is currently close to 9-mil b/d.     Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said late last month that Riyadh was pumping around 8-mil b/d, close to its OPEC quota and 2.5-mil b/d less than its total output capacity of 10.5-mil b/d.     Naimi said in January that Saudi production could be raised to close to 10-mil b/d within two weeks. Reaching the full 10.5-mil b/d would take 90 days, he said. Based on the Platts production estimate of 8.74-mil b/d for February, Riyadh's immediately available spare capacity is therefore less than 1.3-mil b/d.     Platts soundings among OPEC delegates, industry officials and analysts suggest that Iran, the UAE, Libya, Qatar, Nigeria and Algeria could between them push out an additional 900,000 b/d or so. This would put OPEC's spare capacity at just under 2.2-mil b/d.     Saudi Arabia, which raised output by 450,000 b/d in January, pushed out a further 270,000 b/d in February to average 8.74-mil b/d, the country's highest output level since December 2000.     Despite two increases in OPEC's nominal output ceiling totaling 2.8-mil b/d this year, OPEC's crude basket has been above the cartel's $22-28/bbl target band since mid-December. It stood at $32.50/bbl Feb 6.     Country-by-country breakdown of production with figures in millions of b/d:

Country Feb 03 Jan 03 Dec 02 Jan 03 Feb 03 Quota Quota

Algeria 1.050 1.020 1.000 0.735 0.782

Indonesia 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.192 1.270

Iran 3.690 3.620 3.550 3.377 3.597

Iraq 2.510 2.500 2.360 N/A N/A

Kuwait 2.000 2.000 1.980 1.845 1.966

Libya 1.400 1.390 1.350 1.232 1.312

Nigeria 2.180 2.150 2.100 1.894 2.018

Qatar 0.750 0.730 0.720 0.596 0.635

Saudi Arabia 8.740 8.470 8.020 7.476 7.963

UAE 2.140 2.100 2.050 2.007 2.138

Venezuela 1.490 0.650 1.000 2.647 2.819

Total 27.030 25.710 25.210

OPEC 10 (excluding IRAQ)24.520 23.210 22.850 23.000 24.500

    For more information on OPEC, go to the "Platts Guide to OPEC" at www.platts.com/opec/index.shtml

    Platts is the global leader in providing energy information and marketing services. Every day, more than $10 billion of trading activity and term contract sales is based on Platts' price assessments. From 14 offices worldwide, Platts covers the oil, natural gas, electricity, nuclear power, coal, petrochemical and metals markets. Additional information on Platts real-time and Internet-based news and price assessment services, publications, databases, geo-spatial tools, conferences, research and consulting services and energy financial services is available at www.platts.com and www.plattsmetals.com.

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