Vienna (<a href=www.bluebull.com>Bluebull) - Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi warned in Vienna that excess oil supplies are increasing and may hurt prices in some two months. He commented the process as the strongest sign yet the OPEC, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will agree to cut production. Saudi Arabia, is OPEC's biggest oil producer.

An OPEC meeting tomorrow is to assure that they keep the price where it is. OPEC ministers are concerned that if they don't take some steps, an oil surplus may occur. The concerns of the organisation are understandable as London oil prices have slid from USD 34 a barrel in early March to around USD 25 now after OPEC boosted output to compensate for outages in Venezuela and Nigeria and the war in Iraq.

Meanwhile, US military forces said production may start from Iraq's northern fields next month, while the recovery of exports depend on determining who will export and sell the oil. /pz

April 23, 2003 By <a href=www.businessreport.co.za>Sapa-AFP

Vienna - Wary of a glut on the world oil market, Opec is ready to cut production to ensure oil prices remain in its target range of $22-$28 a barrel, Opec ministers said upon arriving for a meeting of the powerful cartel.

"Tomorrow we will make sure we keep the market where it is in the band," Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Nuaimi told journalists in Vienna, a day ahead of a meeting in the Austrian capital of the 11-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"We are concerned if we don't take some steps that an oil glut may form in two, three months," Al-Nouaimi said.

He did not provide details but an Opec source had said Tuesday that the cartel was looking to cut production in order to keep oil prices from falling too far and would call on its members to respect the 24.5 million barrels per day (bpd) production quota, which is currently being exceeded by some two million bpd.

Opec should move first by getting its members to respect the quota, United Arab Emirates (UAE) Oil Minister Obeid bin Saif al-Nasseri said Wednesday.

"I think we have to tackle first compliance, then we shall see if there is a need to cut," he said upon arriving in Vienna.

"Obviously there is oversupply in the market," Al-Nasseri said.

"I think we have to discuss the situation first and analyze the size of supply in the market then we have to take the right action," he said.

Opec had announced in January an output increase, raising its combined ceiling by 6.5 percent to 24.5 million bpd, to curb a surge in prices triggered by a strike in Venezuela and the threat of war in Iraq.

Opec is producing some two million bpd over this quota, ministers have said.

Al-Nouaimi said that if the cartel had not increased production beyond even the quota as war with Iraq grew nearer "prices would have shot up."

He said that "you have to give Opec some credit, a very big credit," recalling that analysts had feared as the war approached in March that prices could shoot to $100 a barrel . In fact they had stayed below $40 a barrel.

"Opec is healthy," Al-Nouaimi said.

The problem now is that prices are falling, although they are still in the high range of the band.

Oil prices were slightly firmer in Asian trading Wednesday with the market dominated by uncertainty over whether OPEC would cut output quotas, dealers said.

In Singapore, the benchmark New York light sweet crude contract for June delivery was being traded at $28.07 a barrel in after-hours trading, up from its close of $27.99 in New York Tuesday.

"There is no clear sign about what OPEC will decide to do," a dealer with a Singapore trading firm said.

A part of the uncertainty is determining when Iraqi oil exports are most likely to resume and how seriously the mystery virus SARS will affect the already sluggish world economy.

There are also fresh concerns over supplies from Nigeria, where violence has flared following a disputed presidential election.

Nigerian soldiers shot dead eight opposition supporters after coming under fire during an election-day protest at the weekend, a police spokesman told AFP on Tuesday.

Last month around a third of all Nigeria's oil exports were halted due to civil and political unrest.

Dealers said crude prices could fall to $26-$27 a barrel if OPEC decided to keep production levels at current levels.

In any case, OPEC member Iraq will not be represented at Thursday's meeting.

Iraq's seat will be vacant as the United States has chosen not to appoint a representative to attend, the State Department said in Washington Tuesday.

"Coalition governments will not take any actions that would prejudice the decisions of any future government and have taken no action with respect to Iraq's participation in OPEC which is an issue for the future Iraqi government," said Lynn Cassel, a department spokeswoman. - Sapa-AFP

<a href=www.busrep.co.za>IOL-Business Report April 23, 2003 By Sapa-AFP

Vienna - Opec should move first to rein in supply on the world oil markets by getting its members to respect current production quotas, United Arab Emirates (UAE) Oil Minister Obeid bin Saif al-Nasseri said Wednesday.

"I think we have to tackle first compliance, then we shall see if there is a need to cut," he said upon arriving in Vienna for a meeting Thursday of the 11-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"Obviously there is oversupply in the market," Al-Nasseri said.

"I think we have to discuss the situation first and analyze the size of supply in the market then we have to take the right action," he said.

Wary of a glut on the world oil market following the end of the Iraq war, Opec is ready to take steps to ensure oil prices remain in its target range of $22-$28 a barrel, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Nouaimi said in Vienna Wednesday .

Opec had announced in January an output increase, raising its combined ceiling by 6.5 percent to 24.5 million barrels per day, to curb a surge in prices triggered by a strike in Venezuela and the threat of war in Iraq.

Opec is producing some two million barrels per day over this quota, ministers have said.

The problem now is that prices are falling, although they are still in the high range of Opec's $22-$28 a barrel band. - Sapa-AFP

<a href=www.arabnews.com>ArabNews.com-Agence France Presse

VIENNA, 13 October 2003 — OPEC, looking to cut production in order to keep oil prices from falling too far, is to call on its members to respect production quotas, an OPEC source said here yesterday.

The source said members of the 11-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would call at a meeting tomorrow in Vienna for the organization to hold to its current quota of 24.5 million barrels per day (bpd), which is currently being exceeded by some two million bpd.

OPEC oil ministers were to begin arriving in Vienna later Tuesday. Analysts said deciding how output should be reduced, and by whom, could prove difficult.

In London, reference Brent North Sea crude for June delivery fell five cents to $25.80 a barrel. New York’s benchmark light sweet crude contract for May slipped 20 cents to $30.67 a barrel during early trading.

Traders said that fluctuations in the US price were largely caused by technical factors associated with the expiry of the May contract yesterday. “The oil market is waiting to see what happens at the OPEC meeting later this week,” said analyst Andrew Whittock at Williams de Broe.

It remained uncertain what the organization might decide on, said GNI trader Paul Goodhew. “People are kind of expecting a cut of production of around one (million) to 1.5 million barrels per day, but what OPEC actually gives us remains to be seen,” he said.

Over the weekend, OPEC President Abdullah ibn Hamad Al-Attiyah said that the group must act to curb a surplus of two million barrels a day on the market since the Iraq war. However, a dealer in Singapore with a regional trading firm, commented: “They (OPEC) should not complain too much since oil prices have held at relatively high levels.”

Among the factors clouding the group’s deliberations will be the continuing uncertainty over when Iraqi oil exports are most likely to resume and over how seriously the mystery virus SARS will affect the already sluggish world economy.

OPEC had announced in January an output increase, raising its combined output ceiling by 6.5 percent to 24.5 million bpd, to curb a surge in prices triggered by a strike in Venezuela and the threat of war in Iraq. Since then, OPEC members have produced over the quota as the price of oil soared up to $40 per barrel.

There is concern now that oil prices could collapse due to oversupply. A return to the quota “is the most likely scenario” to seek to adjust prices, the OPEC official said.

OPEC seeks to have oil prices within a target range of $22-$28 per barrel. With Iraq’s oil exports expected to begin flowing again following the US-led war to unseat the regime of Saddam Hussein, OPEC has been anxious to avoid a plunge in global prices through oversupply.

URL Daily Trust (Abuja) April 22, 2003 Posted to the web April 22, 2003

OPEC confirmed Monday that it will hold an emergency meeting April 24 in Vienna to discuss cutting supplies in response to a sharp drop in world oil prices.

Despite a halt in Iraqi exports due to the U.S.-led war on Baghdad, prices have slumped by 30 percent in a month on a rising tide of exports from U.S. ally Saudi Arabia and other cartel members. Check out allAfrica's debate on the election in Nigeria. Click here.

"It's definitely the 24th," an OPEC spokesman said, clearing up uncertainty over possible dates for the meeting.

Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said Monday that OPEC could stop prices falling further simply by improving compliance with its agreed ceiling of 24.5 million barrels per day (bpd), as the cartel is now pumping some two million bpd above that.

Other members could push for a cut in formal quota limits.

The Arab-dominated cartel will also discuss the return of Iraqi exports after the war, although this is unlikely to affect quotas yet.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah said last week that oversupply on world markets already topped two million bpd, and could reach four million with the return of Iraq in the months ahead.

Countering this view, Algeria's Khelil said any decision by OPEC now should take into account an expected demand rebound in the summer which could see prices rise again.

Commercial oil stocks worldwide are well below normal levels due to a series of supply interruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq, although they have shown some signs of recovery in recent weeks.

Despite the sharp fall in prices, OPEC's reference price is now hovering around OPEC's target level of $25 per barrel, having topped $33 last month.

Saudi Arabia stepped in to cover for the Iraqi stoppage, and now accounts for three-quarters of OPEC's output above quota. Its view will be crucial.

Oil industry think-tank, the Center for Global Energy Studies, said Saudi Arabia could even seek to retain most of its recent output surge by negotiating cuts on the basis of current output, instead of quotas.

This would provoke a storm of protest from other members, who are all keen to protect their market share.

When Iraqi sales do resume, analysts believe they will rise gradually and take several months to regain their pre-war level of 2.5 million bpd.

OPEC will probably give Baghdad freedom to pump at will until it reaches its historical quota level above three million bpd, which Iraqi experts expect to take several years.

Before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Baghdad had the same quota level as Iran at 3.1 million bpd. Iran's quota has since risen to 3.6 million.

U.S.-backed Iraqi exiles formulating postwar oil policy for Iraq think it will take three or four years to regain output capacity of 3.5 million bpd, according to briefing papers obtained by Reuters.