<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Wednesday, May 28, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Federation of Chambers of Industry & Commerce (Fedecamaras) has been discussing the 19-clause agreement  reached after 7 months of government-opposition negotiations. Hard-liners, such as former Fedecamaras president Vicente Brito, gung-ho Venezuelan Ranchers Federation (Fedenaga)  president, Jose Luis Betancourt and Agricultural Producers Federation (Fedeagro) Jose Manuel Gonzalez. 

Acting Fedecamaras president, Albis Muniz admits that the business sector is divided on the agreement scheduled to be signed on Thursday. Speaking to members of the Venezuelan-Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Munoz says the political and sociological process is complicated and the solution is a slow process. 

"We in Venezuela have been too hasty because we are accustomed to expect immediate results and expect others to do things for us." 

Munoz says the agreement is aimed at maintaining a bridge with international opinion and suggests a National Pact similar to the Moncloa agreement that has ensured 13 years of economic growth and social benefits in Spain. 

Fedecamaras representative at the negotiations table, Rafael Alfonzo has been telling businessmen that he has his reservations about aspects of the agreement. 

The Movimiento Federal, of which some prominent Fedecamaras businessmen, are members has reject the agreement outright, alleging that the government has secured the support of international bodies and there is no guarantee that the recall referendum will go through.

Historian Jorge Olavarria has welcomed the agreement and criticizes those who call it the least of evils. "Once the agreement has been signed, the opposition can move forward and start collecting signatures demanding a recall referendum ... what are we waiting for?"

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Tuesday, May 27, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Opposition groups are still deciding on how to react to the government-opposition negotiators agreement expected to be signed this coming week. Minor Coordinadora Democratica (CD) political parties: Union, Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP) and Solidaridad have announced that they will accept the 19-clause agreement as it stands, even though they have reservations about particular clauses.

Proyecto Venezuela (PV) and Primero Justicia (PJ), which have distanced themselves from the CD, are coming around to Jorge Olavarria's opinion that an across-the-board recall referendum process should be accepted and that the agreement guarantees an electoral process.

Of the major parties, Christian Socialist (COPEI) has accepted whereas Accion Democratica (AD)  has been putting on airs, saying it is still discussing article by article. The Adecos have called in former Presidential Secretariat Minister and constitutional lawyer, Asdrubal Aguiar to advise them on each article of the agreement. 

The increasingly arrogant AD president, Henry Ramos Allup, who is on a roll since Saturday's allegedly successful "Assault on Catia," says AD will not sign any agreement without reviewing each point. Allegedly speaking for all opposition negotiators, Ramos Allup conforms that neither negotiators  nor CD nor anybody will sign a closed document. "If we sense that the government wants us to take it or leave it, then we will not sign." 

Other signs of inconformity among opposition parties have been appearing ... Primero Justicia (PJ)  has criticized Proyecto Venezuela (PV) leader, Henrique Salas Romer and CD leader Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza for promoting divisions in the opposition camp. 

PJ general secretary Jose Luis Mejias says PV had invited both men to a private meeting in November 2002, urging then to create a united front and to drop the personal confrontations ... "Venezuela does not want to see a struggle between the two persons or fights between AD, PV and PJ ... the country wants the opposition to unite."

27 May 2003 16:08:48 GMT CARACAS, Venezuela,(Reuters) - An agreement between Venezuela's government and opposition for a possible referendum on Hugo Chavez's presidency will be signed in Caracas Thursday and should help to defuse their long-running political conflict, an international mediator said Tuesday.

"The signing will take place Thursday ... I believe that this will help to improve the political climate," Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria told reporters in Caracas.

The OAS, the United Nations, the Atlanta-based Carter Center and foreign governments had been pressing left-winger Chavez and his foes to agree elections to end more than a year of often violent feuding in the world's No. 5 oil exporter.

Following more than six months of tough negotiations brokered by Gaviria, Chavez's government and its foes Friday reached a 19-point accord in which both sides accept the idea of a possible referendum after August 19. They also agreed to shun violence and support a plan to disarm civilians.

After Aug. 19, which marks the halfway point of Chavez's current term, Venezuela's constitution allows the holding of a recall vote on his rule. But the opposition must first collect the signatures from 20 percent of voters.

"I don't know if there will be a recall referendum. It's a possibility if the opposition meets all the constitutional requirements," Chavez told Reuters in Cusco, Peru Friday during a summit of Latin American presidents.

It will be signed by Chavez's vice president, Jose Vicente Rangel, as the most senior government representative, opposition negotiators from a broad anti-Chavez coalition, Gaviria and U.N. and Carter Center officials.

Some opposition leaders fear that Chavez, a former paratrooper who won election in 1998 six years after failing to seize power in a coup, may still try to avoid the vote. His foes accuse him of ruling like a dictator and of trying to install Cuban-style communism.

Chavez has said he is willing to submit to the referendum, but the opposition must take the required steps to make the vote happen.

The agreement will be signed despite violence over the weekend in which gunfire disrupted a rally by opposition supporters in a pro-Chavez district of Caracas. One person was killed and 22 more were injured by bullets. Government and opposition blamed each other.

Venezuela's National Assembly, where Chavez supporters hold a slim majority, must select a new National Electoral Council to set a date for the referendum, verify the signatures and check the national electoral register.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, May 26, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: In a recent story the Wall Street Journal comes down hard on Venezuelan Ambassador to the US, Bernardo Alvarez, for being "a hypocrite." The charge is explained by saying that, while Mr. Alvarez speaks admiringly of US democracy ... Jefferson and all ... he is a member of PPT, a Venezuelan small political party which is actually the ideological motor behind the growing totalitarianism of the Chavez government.

I believe the assessment of Alvarez by the WSJ is essentially correct but they were more lenient with Kemp, who explained his apparent endorsement of the Chavez regime by saying that he has had " an old relationship with Bernardo"...

No matter how long this relationship might have lasted it can not justify Kemp's association with one of the most undemocratic governments of the hemisphere. Hugo Chavez was elected President in a legitimate manner, after leading a failed coup against a democratically elected President in 1992 and causing over 100 deaths in the process. After his election, however, his systematic violation of the Constitution and his destruction of the independence of political institutions in the country have rendered his government clearly illegitimate.

Legitimacy is not merely of origin but also of performance. Who knows what his friend Bernardo has told him, but Kemp does not appear to be well informed about what is going on in Venezuela. In addition to what Alexandra Beech has already said to him in a very good letter, let me add the following:

This year the Venezuelan GDP will "grow" -17%, according estimates of J.P. Morgan. Last year the "growth" was -9%. This collapse, Mr. Kemp, is only comparable to those suffered by Cuba and Haiti in the 1990s ... but these countries are very poor while Venezuela has had extremely high petroleum income during the last three years. This is the Midas touch in reverse ... Chavez turns wealth into misery ... you might want to ask Bernardo about that.

The Venezuelan Central Bank ... not the opposition ... reports a drop of 23% in food consumption for the first quarter of this year and a catastrophic drop of 29% in the GDP, as compared to the first quarter of last year ... which was already pretty poor. A seasoned politician like Mr. Kemp should wonder about the quality of a government which produces these dismal figures.

The government has imposed, not exchange controls, but a currency blockade for the last 4 months which has produced an increase in international reserves at the expense of total national economic paralysis. About $1.5 billion have had to be bought by the private sector in the only market available ... the black market.

The social impact of these measures has been tragic: unemployment is almost 25%, crime rate is the highest ever and almost 500 Venezuelans are murdered every month in an atmosphere of total impunity.

Venezuela shows more violent deaths, I am sure, than the ones derived from the Israeli- Arab conflict. About 200,000 children live abandoned, many under drug addiction. Beggars and "buhoneros" overflow the streets of the cities. The services of garbage collection, the hospitals, the schools, the public infrastructure, all show sad signs of extreme deterioration. The poor are now destitute, the middle class is now largely poor, the rich are now largely gone.

If Mr. Kemp lived here, he would realize that this involution can not be merely the product of stupidity. Of course there is much of that. He would see it as soon as he met the ministers of the cabinet. But what is going on, in parallel, is a very shrewd (you can be a stupid administrator and a shrewd politician) plan to turn Venezuela into a fundamentalist, totalitarian society, just like those in Cuba, Libya or Iran.

The Cuba of Fidel Castro was made possible ... to a large extent ... by the support it received during its early stages by idealistic US politicians and intellectuals, at a time in which Castro still professed to be leading a "democratic" revolution.

How you can fall for it a second time around is beyond my understanding ... fortunately, not everyone has been mesmerized and can see that the King is naked.

The US has developed almost zero tolerance for rogue governments and I think this time there will be no honeymoon with the apprentice of dictator.

I read an article by Mr. Kemp in which he speak of the saga of Martin Luther King against racial discrimination with great admiration ... and yet he seems to endorse a racist government. Racism is not only practised against colored people but also against whites ... as shown in Zimbabwe, and in Venezuela. Chavez speaks with hate of the "oligarchs", the white, blue-eyed (says Chaderton, the Foreign Minister) businessmen and managers who are blamed for most of the ills of the nation. Venezuela is a 'mestizo' country, Mr. Kemp, for years free from racism ... until Chavez started his preaching full of social resentment, just like a new "mahdi"....

At this time, laws are being passed ... bulldozer style ... to give Chavez control of the institutions not yet in his grasp: the media and the Supreme Tribunal of Justice. Public bidding has been eliminated. Land invasions are now common place, under the protection of the military siding with Chavez. Governance and guarantees for the citizen do not exist in Venezuela, Mr. Kemp...

The government which Mr. Kemp's friend Bernardo represents in the US has done so much damage to the country ... in only 4 years ... that it might take 20 years or more to reverse it. The petroleum company PDVSA, which used to be the third of the first world, is now the first of the third world. It is now at the hands of Bernardo's boss, a former Cuban-supported guerrilla who used to try to blow up the pipelines he now tries to operate.

Try to find out the truth about Venezuela, Mr. Kemp, do not listen only to Bernardo ... do not associate yourself with such an (un)kemp(t) regime ... talk to former President Carter and to Cesar Gaviria, who have no axe to grind. Talk only 5 minutes to Adina Bastidas, is all I ask from you ... listen to Chavez sing on national TV, is all I ask from you ... read about the Head of the Currency Exchange control referring the Venezuelan foreign currency problem to prophet Malachias, is all I would ask from you.

And ... if after you do this ... you still feel like endorsing the government of Hugo Chavez, so be it ... it will be God's will...

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.  In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort.  You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email gustavo@vheadline.com

There are no proposals on how to improve the living standards of the poorest people. Few people have made proposals for solving social problems, as they do not want to be compared with President Hugo Chávez

According to economist Emeterio Gómez, "the lack of ideas can be easily explained: No project offers solutions, maybe on the fear of being associated with Chávez-like positions."

EUGENIO MARTINEZ EL UNIVERSAL

As the date for convening a revoking referendum against Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is approaching and opposition groups are convinced that said vote may lead to early elections, civil society has reopened the debate on "projects for the country," i.e., concrete proposals on what to do when Chávez leaves the presidential palace of Miraflores.

There are several proposals. The ideas put forward by civic organizations for an eventual new government are characterized by a lack of details.

No significant contributions

Economist Emeterio Gómez recently affirmed that the projects' negative side "is that there is no discordant chord... Most programs only summarize a consensus. There are no significant contributions."

From his point of view, proposals should tackle "the capitalist issue. Talking in general about market economy is very different from getting into the capitalism's structure: providing concrete ideas about solidarity capitalism, and finding ways to connect capitalism with social responsibility -the key topics being debated in the world."

Another issue that, according to Gómez, must be debated is a topic laid down in the Venezuelan Constitution. "The Constitution states the need to give justice priority over rights. From a leftist standpoint, this position may seem insane because it brings forth the destruction of the judiciary system, promoting (land) invasions, for instance."

According to Gómez, it is necessary to open a debate on this issue, including the defense of the right to ownership.

Meanwhile, there are no proposals on how to improve the living standards of the poorest people.

This lack of ideas can be easily explained: "No project offers solutions, maybe on the fear of being associated with" Chávez-like positions," said the economist.

Positive aspects

Nevertheless, most projects also have some positive aspects. "This evidences that they have certain common positions. One of the basic issues being debated is what to do with the (country's) economy," said Gómez.

In this sense, focusing on a market economy is one of the solutions being discussed. "Even though very few people call it this way -some people describe it as private sector importance, productive economy, or open economy-, the core issue is the acceptance of market economy. Today, only a few people defend state intervention," he explained.

Poverty and inflation

Projects for a post-Chávez Venezuela also agree on the need to ensure the independence of the Venezuelan Central Bank and to implement non-inflationary policies.

Gómez considers that most projects have a common view regarding fiscal policy: "They intend not to increase deficit."

These plans also share common ideas about poverty. "All these programs agree on the need to face poverty, but none of them deals with the problem of high public expenses, which are going to increase."

He rejected the fact that the discussion of ideas and projects does not include specific cases such as the privatization of state-owned oil company Pdvsa.

The analyses with too many ideas about transition and few short-term plans are not shared by Gómez, who believes that "they are actually talking about medium- and long-term projects. Discussing an economic program for a transition period amounts to a waste of time. The measures to be taken depend on the government structure and how bad the economy is."

According to Gómez, "if this economic disaster is allowed to continue, the economic program will have to be much more severe. It is very difficult to agree on what should be done."

emartinez@eluniversal.com