Gwynne Dyer: Latin America continues to its individual beat 30.12.2002

Thirty people are injured by a bomb in Bogota, in an incident that will become commonplace as Colombia's seemingly endless guerilla war moves into the cities. (Thanks, Irish Republican Army, for showing us how the pros do it. Before, we just massacred peasants in villages.)

Two-thirds of Argentina's population live in abject poverty a century after it was the world's most popular destination for emigrants hoping to better their lives. Then, per capita income in Argentina was US$2800 ($5389) a year, among the highest in the world. Now, it is down to US$2500 ($4812), just ahead of Bulgaria.

It is a reasonably safe bet that in 20 years, Bulgaria, scheduled to join the European Union in 2007, will have three times Argentina's average income.

Venezuela is into the third week of confrontation between the populist president, Hugo Chavez, re-elected by a landslide majority less than three years ago, and strikers in the state oil industry. The strikers have the backing of the old political elite and desperate middle-class Venezuelans who fear that Chavez's erratic attempts to do something for the poor majority will ruin what little is left of their own prosperity, and the battle may end up in the streets.

No other oil-rich country except Nigeria contrives to have such a huge gap between rich and poor.

Fidel Castro's worn-out dictatorship is still hanging on in Cuba after more than four decades in power. Lucio Gutierrez, jailed after a failed coup two years ago, was elected president of Ecuador last month.

The crusading priest-politician Jean-Bertrand Aristide, overthrown by brutal generals in Haiti and then restored to the presidency after a long campaign by North American sympathisers, turns out to be just as incompetent and thuggish as his opponents always claimed.

What is wrong with Latin America?

Most Latin Americans at the moment place the blame on neo-liberal economic policies imposed by Washington and the International Monetary Fund, but Latin America's backwardness and political failure long predate the latest economic fashion.

In fact, those neo-liberal policies did actually produce crude economic growth, which was quite high in the region during the 1990s.

The problem is rather that this is the region with the highest income disparities in the world: per capita income of the top fifth of Brazilian households is more than 30 times greater than the bottom fifth.

Poverty is so widespread that even if Latin American economies grew by 4 per cent a year for the next decade, according to the World Bank, only half of the region's people would be lifted out of extreme poverty.

That is longer than most people are willing to wait, so there is a region-wide revolt against the neo-liberal orthodoxy, with populist politicians offering vaguely socialist nostrums winning power in one country after another.

Some, like Brazil's president-elect Luis Inacio da Silva ("Lula"), are serious and legitimate figures. Others, like Hugo Chavez, are charismatic charlatans. But the whole region is clearly changing course yet again, in another flailing, desperate attempt to escape its fate as the ne'er-do-well country cousin of the West.

Latin America is part of the West, despite the "Third World" rhetoric that has tended to obscure that fact for the past half-century. By history, language, ethnicity and religion, it is just as much a part of the West as the United States or Italy.

Its half-billion people account for fully a third of the total population of the West; they just happen to be the poor third. Why?

It cannot be the particular part of Europe from which they take their languages and political traditions. Spain and Portugal, Europe's richest countries 400 years ago, went through a long and painful decline as their empires withered, but today they are prosperous and democratic countries.

Neither can it be Latin America's Catholic religious traditions. There is no longer any significant gap in prosperity and political stability between the Catholic south and the Protestant north of Germany, or between Catholic Ireland and Protestant England.

It can't be the ethnic mix, either. Some Latin American countries are almost entirely European in population, but the most successful ones, Mexico and Brazil, are also the most ethnically mixed: at least half of all Mexicans are part-Indian, and 40 per cent of Brazilians are part-African.

Most of these countries made their first attempts at democratic revolution in the early 19th century, no later than most other parts of the West. They have never been cut off from the intellectual and political trends that swept the rest of the West. And you really can't blame the Americans for it all.

"Poor Mexico. So far from God, so close to the United States," said Mexican dictator Porfirio Diaz a century ago, but Mexico is now enjoying a pattern of growth that will make it a serious rival to Germany in less than a generation.

So what is the real reason that Latin America doesn't work like the rest of the West? I'm afraid I have no idea. Tell me it's corruption, military coups, poor education, and I'll just ask you why they persisted in Latin America long after they declined elsewhere in the West.

The one consoling thought is that Brazil and Mexico, the countries that seem likeliest to escape from the pattern, make up over half the total population of Latin America.

• Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist.

Gwynne Dyer: Latin America continues to its individual beat 30.12.2002

Thirty people are injured by a bomb in Bogota, in an incident that will become commonplace as Colombia's seemingly endless guerilla war moves into the cities. (Thanks, Irish Republican Army, for showing us how the pros do it. Before, we just massacred peasants in villages.)

Two-thirds of Argentina's population live in abject poverty a century after it was the world's most popular destination for emigrants hoping to better their lives. Then, per capita income in Argentina was US$2800 ($5389) a year, among the highest in the world. Now, it is down to US$2500 ($4812), just ahead of Bulgaria.

It is a reasonably safe bet that in 20 years, Bulgaria, scheduled to join the European Union in 2007, will have three times Argentina's average income.

Venezuela is into the third week of confrontation between the populist president, Hugo Chavez, re-elected by a landslide majority less than three years ago, and strikers in the state oil industry. The strikers have the backing of the old political elite and desperate middle-class Venezuelans who fear that Chavez's erratic attempts to do something for the poor majority will ruin what little is left of their own prosperity, and the battle may end up in the streets.

No other oil-rich country except Nigeria contrives to have such a huge gap between rich and poor.

Fidel Castro's worn-out dictatorship is still hanging on in Cuba after more than four decades in power. Lucio Gutierrez, jailed after a failed coup two years ago, was elected president of Ecuador last month.

The crusading priest-politician Jean-Bertrand Aristide, overthrown by brutal generals in Haiti and then restored to the presidency after a long campaign by North American sympathisers, turns out to be just as incompetent and thuggish as his opponents always claimed.

What is wrong with Latin America?

Most Latin Americans at the moment place the blame on neo-liberal economic policies imposed by Washington and the International Monetary Fund, but Latin America's backwardness and political failure long predate the latest economic fashion.

In fact, those neo-liberal policies did actually produce crude economic growth, which was quite high in the region during the 1990s.

The problem is rather that this is the region with the highest income disparities in the world: per capita income of the top fifth of Brazilian households is more than 30 times greater than the bottom fifth.

Poverty is so widespread that even if Latin American economies grew by 4 per cent a year for the next decade, according to the World Bank, only half of the region's people would be lifted out of extreme poverty.

That is longer than most people are willing to wait, so there is a region-wide revolt against the neo-liberal orthodoxy, with populist politicians offering vaguely socialist nostrums winning power in one country after another.

Some, like Brazil's president-elect Luis Inacio da Silva ("Lula"), are serious and legitimate figures. Others, like Hugo Chavez, are charismatic charlatans. But the whole region is clearly changing course yet again, in another flailing, desperate attempt to escape its fate as the ne'er-do-well country cousin of the West.

Latin America is part of the West, despite the "Third World" rhetoric that has tended to obscure that fact for the past half-century. By history, language, ethnicity and religion, it is just as much a part of the West as the United States or Italy.

Its half-billion people account for fully a third of the total population of the West; they just happen to be the poor third. Why?

It cannot be the particular part of Europe from which they take their languages and political traditions. Spain and Portugal, Europe's richest countries 400 years ago, went through a long and painful decline as their empires withered, but today they are prosperous and democratic countries.

Neither can it be Latin America's Catholic religious traditions. There is no longer any significant gap in prosperity and political stability between the Catholic south and the Protestant north of Germany, or between Catholic Ireland and Protestant England.

It can't be the ethnic mix, either. Some Latin American countries are almost entirely European in population, but the most successful ones, Mexico and Brazil, are also the most ethnically mixed: at least half of all Mexicans are part-Indian, and 40 per cent of Brazilians are part-African.

Most of these countries made their first attempts at democratic revolution in the early 19th century, no later than most other parts of the West. They have never been cut off from the intellectual and political trends that swept the rest of the West. And you really can't blame the Americans for it all.

"Poor Mexico. So far from God, so close to the United States," said Mexican dictator Porfirio Diaz a century ago, but Mexico is now enjoying a pattern of growth that will make it a serious rival to Germany in less than a generation.

So what is the real reason that Latin America doesn't work like the rest of the West? I'm afraid I have no idea. Tell me it's corruption, military coups, poor education, and I'll just ask you why they persisted in Latin America long after they declined elsewhere in the West.

The one consoling thought is that Brazil and Mexico, the countries that seem likeliest to escape from the pattern, make up over half the total population of Latin America.

• Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist.

Talks between the Venezuelan Government and opposition groups aimed at ending the country's prolonged general strike have broken down with both sides unwilling to concede any ground.

Organisation of American States secretary-general Cesar Gaviria had worked hard to get the two feuding sides back to the negotiations table over the Christmas holidays but has now admitted partial defeat as they go their separate ways with no more talks scheduled until the New Year.

The opposition, which includes big business, the state oil company, unions and President Hugo Chavez's numerous political foes, are demanding a February referendum on his rule and elections within three months.

President Chavez resolutely insists a binding referendum will not be held until August.

More protest marches nationwide are taking place throughout today.

New York-AP -- New York Senator Charles Schumer is urging the Bush administration to take steps to rein in the rising price of fuel. Schumer says the administration should not rule out tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Other lawmakers have also urged the administration to take that step. Last week, the White House said it's not under consideration. The emergency stockpile is in salt domes along the Gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas.

With heating bills and gas prices on the rise, Schumer says things could get worse. He points to the general strike in oil-rich Venezuela and the possibility of a war on Iraq.

Oil is trading at two-year highs, and some gas retailers seem to be rushing to pass wholesale price increases

By GINGER THOMPSON -TNYT

CARACAS, Venezuela, Dec. 29 — Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans filled the streets here today to declare their commitment to a national strike, now in its 28th day, to force the ouster of President Hugo Chávez.

The strike, joined by an estimated 30,000 oil workers, threatens to wreak havoc on this nation, the world's fifth-largest oil producer, for months to come. It has stopped the oil exports that generate about 80 percent of Venezuela's foreign revenue and 50 percent of government funds.

In recent days, the strike has reached a kind of stalemate. Mr. Chávez is using nonstriking workers to try to normalize operations at the state-owned oil company. His opponents, led by a coalition of business and labor leaders, contend, though, that their strike will push the company, and thus the Chávez government, to collapse.

In an interview today, Horacio Medina, president of a group of striking oil managers, said that the first 10 days of the new year would be decisive. He said the opposition leaders would turn up the pressure on the Chávez government by urging their followers to conduct campaigns of civil disobedience, like refusing to pay taxes.

"The only solution" is for Mr. Chávez "to resign," he said. "People are still willing to stay out of work for many more days."

Each day that passes, however, seems to strengthen Mr. Chávez's resolve to ride out this latest and most explosive political storm. He has been able to keep gasoline trickling to the pumps in Venezuela. Almost daily television broadcasts show him speaking at important gas and oil installations, boasting that his government has not been weakened by the strike.

Mr. Chávez, a former paratrooper, speaks like a man at war. He describes his opponents as "traitors" and "coup plotters," who are using oil to overthrow the government without regard for the devastating economic impact of their strike.

He has promised that supplies of gasoline will be restored by mid-January. Once operations at the state-owned oil company recover, he contends, the opposition will run out of cards to play.

"Any card they play is a card that will be burned," he said, "because we have popular force. We have military force. We have moral force. We have reason on our side."

Opposition leaders acknowledge that the oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, has become the principal battlefield and that Mr. Chávez has proved a more resilient foe than even their most pessimistic predictions anticipated.

They say the government's efforts to restore operations at the state-owned oil company have shown that Mr. Chávez was unwilling to negotiate a compromise in the current crisis. They say it leaves them no alternative but to keep up their strike in hopes that the Chávez government will run out of gas — literally and politically — within the next two weeks.

As shortages of gasoline become even more acute, opposition leaders calculated, the pressure on the streets will be too powerful for Mr. Chávez to ignore.

"I do not see how they can stabilize this situation," Mr. Medina said. "Things are only going to get worse, and when they do, Chávez will have to negotiate."

Many say that without a negotiated settlement between Mr. Chávez and his opponents, it may be impossible to stamp out the rage and suspicions generated by the highly charged verbiage from both sides of this political conflict.