<a href=www.latintrade.com>latintrade.com 04/04/2003 - Source: Latin American Newsletters Venezuela is about to become the third Latin American country to go for a restructuring of its external debt this year. President Hugo Chávez was quite blunt about it: the country, he said last week, is simply unable to pay the US$5bn of external debt falling due this year.

Finance minister Tobías Nóbrega, who says he has been working on restructuring plans since late last year, has said the government completely rules out a moratorium or an enforced restructuring: what will be proposed is a voluntary debt swap; 'a market operation.'

Presentation of the proposals to bondholders will begin in the second quarter.

Central bank director Armando León says the problem to be overcome is the immediate bunching of debt-service obligations. Already in the first quarter Venezuela had to pay out US$950m –under the pressure created by the opposition shutdown of the oil industry.

In the second quarter another US$1.2bn fall due (two- thirds of that in June). In the second half of the year, another US$2.2bn.

Oil-generated revenues are crucial to the country's payment capacity. In January, transfers from the state oil company PDVSA were negligible; much of what was earned had to be spent on importing petrol. In February, they only amounted to US$200m –about a sixth of what would be expected in a year with fairly high oil prices.

This situation is only now beginning to improve. In March, PDVSA has been transferring an average US$150m a week. The oil company projects an increase to somewhere between US$200m and US$400m a week in April-May.

[Planning minister Felipe Pérez has come up with his own set of figures. Oil receipts, he says, are now higher than pre-strike levels. Revenues for last week increased to around US$625m, compared to US$300m in November.]

After that, and assuming that oil prices do not fall too much, revenues could reach about US$1bn a month –enough, says León, to meet debt-servicing obligations and keep the country's international reserves at an acceptable level.

Without counting the Fiem 'rainy-day' fund (into which the government has had to dip heavily in the past few months), reserves stood at just under US$13bn in the last week of March. This is a little more than US$2bn more than at the end of January, and owes much to the exchange controls that have cut drainage to a trickle.

Venezuela's external debt totals US$22.4bn; its domestic debt, US$7.4bn.

Ventura County By Frank Moraga, moraga@insidevc.com April 4, 2003

Students, faculty and the community will encounter a variety of Latin American cultures when the annual Festival de Encuentros commences Monday at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks.

The eighth annual event celebrates the cultures through traditional foods, music, dancing and entertainment, said Liz Ramos, vice president of the university's Latin American Student Organization, which is hosting the festival in cooperation with the institution's Multicultural Programs Office.

Flags of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Guatemala, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela will be flown from CLU's flagpole and in the university's library through April 11.

"Every different country has a different culture and beliefs," Ramos said. "All week we will have facts about different Latin American countries, such as Argentina and Cuba, posted on bulletin boards so we can reach out with factual stuff as opposed to the stereotypical ideas we have about those countries."

The program begins Monday, when all campus employees are invited to a sack lunch and performance by a Los Angeles-based mariachi group at noon at the Pavilion in the center of the campus.

That evening, members of the Inlakech Cultural Arts Center in Oxnard will present a Baile Folklorico performance from 7 to 8 p.m. at the Pavilion.

The program continues at noon Tuesday, when students are invited to have lunch with the university's Latino faculty, staff and administration at the Pavilion, followed by a "movie night" presentation from 7 to 8 p.m. in Nygreen 1. Plans are being finalized for the showing, which could include the HBO Films release of "Real Women Have Curves," Ramos said.

A special Latino chapel service in Spanish and English will be held at 10 a.m. Wednesday in Samuelson Chapel near Olsen Road followed by a "pulga" (flea) craft fair from noon to 2 p.m. at the Student Union Building. Events that day will conclude with storytelling and poetry reading from 7 to 8 p.m. in the Centrum next to the university's cafeteria.

Salsa dancing and lessons will be held from noon to 1 p.m. Thursday at the Pavilion.

"The salsa lessons are our biggest turnout, and we often get 60 to 100 dancers," said LASO faculty adviser Damien Pena, who has been involved with Festival de Encuentros since 1999.

Activities will continue Thursday with a performance by "rock 'n' Espanol" bands Aerosol and Jamboch from 7 to 9 p.m. at the Pavilion.

Festival de Encuentros will conclude Friday with a presentation at the Pavilion on the facts and myths surrounding sex by community educator Xochitl Gomez, Ramos said.

All the events at the campus, at 60 W. Olsen Road, Thousand Oaks, are free and open to the public. Past Festival de Encuentros have drawn community visitors from throughout Ventura County, Pena said.

By Bradley Brooks <a href=www.upi.com>UPI Business Correspondent From the Business & Economics Desk Published 4/3/2003 7:00 AM

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil, April 3 (UPI) -- Latin American stock markets were mostly down this week, though a Wednesday rally around the globe made things considerably cheerier.

As elsewhere, traders in Latin American are moving in response to every bit of news that comes from the coalition war in Iraq. If coalition forces become bogged down, stocks do the same. Wednesday's news from the war zone painted a brighter picture, with coalition forces seeming to make advances and coming ever closer to Baghdad.

Stock indexes across Latin American shot up accordingly.

In Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, investors went against global trends for much of the week, posting nice gains as the country's benchmark bond rallied and the currency gained steam against the dollar.

Sentiment was further buoyed in Brazil as it looked inevitable that the lower house of Congress was going to pass a bill that could lead to autonomy at the central bank.

While some analysts say this has already been priced into the market, or is discounted after government officials have said that such autonomy won't come until 2004, it is clear that traders thought it good news nonetheless.

Additionally, a new poll out Wednesday showed the approval rating for Brazil's leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 75 percent after three months, though the approval rating for the government as a whole stood at 49 percent.

International investors are hopeful that Lula can use his voter mandate and forceful personality to push through needed reforms to the country's financial, legal and pension systems. If those reforms come in a timely manner, analysts say, Brazil could see a new infusion of cash from emerging-market investors.

In Argentina, that country's antitrust body said Wednesday that it will delay a decision on allowing the sale of Argentine energy giant Perez Companc to Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras. Officials said the decision may come in mid-April.

The deal, if completed, would be one of the largest in Latin America in the past year. It was last October that Petrobras said it was paying more than $1 billion for a 58.6 percent share of Perez Companc. The deal has taken on political undertones in Argentina, where even President Eduardo Duhalde recently said he had "doubts" about its legality. Officials are concerned about a Brazilian company having a monopoly in Argentina.

As for the markets, Brazil´s Bovespa stock index rose 0.2 percent to 11,233 last Thursday. Steelmakers gained after news that a World Trade Organization panel ruled U.S. steel tariffs illegal. Usiminas rose 5.7 percent on that ruling, while the world´s largest iron ore miner CVRD added 0.7 percent. Friday brought a gain of 1.5 percent to 11,396. Investors were cheered by a central bank report indicating a healthy budget surplus for February. Telecoms gained, as Telesp Celular added 6.2 percent and fixed-line phone company Telemar rose 1.7 percent.

The Bovespa lost 1.1 percent to 11,273 Monday as overseas doldrums caught up with investors. Telemar lost 2.6 percent and long-distance carrier Embratel fell 1.7 percent.

The index gained 2.8 percent to 11,592 Tuesday as the local currency gained nicely, spreading optimism into equities. Telemar soared 5.3 percent, as aircraft manufacturer Embraer gained 4.7 percent on news one of its key clients -- American Airlines -- might avoid bankruptcy. Wednesday brought a gain of 2.4 percent to 11,872, as investors followed Wall Street up on positive news from the war in Iraq. Utility Cemig gained 4.6 percent, Embratel added 5.9 percent, and Eletrobras gained 5.6 percent.

In Mexico, the IPC index ended last Thursday flat at 5,951, with worries about Iraq weighing. Wal-Mart de Mexico, or Walmex, closed up 1.7 percent, industrial group Alfa lost 1.4 percent.

On Friday, the index lost slightly to 5,947 as investors were sidelined by the military action in the Middle East. Fixed-line phone giant Telmex shed 0.5 percent, while retailer Elektra gained 1.7 percent. The IPC lost 0.6 percent to 5,914 Monday, tracking U.S. equities down. Alfa lost 3.2 percent, Walmex shed 1.8 percent. Telmex was a rare winner, gaining nearly 1 percent.

Tuesday saw a loss of 0.3 percent to 5,896, despite gains in the United States. Telmex lost 1.4 percent, while brewer Modelo gained 1.8 percent. The IPC gained 1.9 percent to 6,009 Wednesday with investors taking cues from Wall Street's gains. Telmex added 2.5 percent, America Movil gained more than 2 percent, and Walmex rose 2.34 percent.

Argentina´s Merval stock index edged up to 569 Thursday. Energy company Perez Companc gained 1 percent. Friday brought a loss of 0.5 percent to 566 for the index. Banks lost as the government lifted restrictions of withdrawls from certificates of deposit. Grupo Financiero Galicia -- which controls the country´s largest private bank -- lost 1.8 percent. Banco Frances fell 2 percent. Markets were closed Monday in Argentina for a national holiday.

On Tuesday, the index lost slightly to 565.9. Carmaker Renault lost 1.5 percent. The Merval was the only losing major index in Latin America Wednesday, as it stumbled 0.75 percent to 561.6. Banco Frances lost more than 3 percent, Perez Companc fell by 2.38 percent after its partial sell to Petrobras was delayed.

In Chile, the IPSA index lost 0.4 percent to 1,004 Thursday. Utility Enersis lost nearly 1 percent. Friday saw the index rise to 1,010. Enersis gained 3.6 percent while utility Endesa gained 0.3 percent. Monday brought a slight loss to 1,009 in quiet trade.

The IPSA lost 0.2 percent to 1,007 Tuesday as investors fretted over the war in Iraq. Enersis lost 1.7 percent. Wednesday brought a gain of 0.6 percent for the index, taking it to 1,013.

The IBC index in Venezuela lost 0.2 percent to 8,411 Thursday. The index gained 1 percent to 8,499 Friday. Monday saw the index up to 8,506. Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela, or CANTV, which comprises 40 percent of the index, lost 1.3 percent. Tuesday brought a gain to 8,570 for the IBC. CANTV gained 2 percent. On Wednesday, the index added 0.27 percent to 8,594.

<a href=www.sfgate.com>SFGate.com Wednesday, April 2, 2003
(04-02) 17:22 PST MEXICO CITY (AP) --

Mexican stocks shook off some of the previous day's lethargy and closed higher Wednesday, tracking U.S. markets as they rallied on news of U.S. troop advances in Iraq.

The market's key IPC index closed up 1.9 percent or 112.75 points at 6,008.51. At the end of 2002, the IPC stood at 6,127.09.

Volume perked up a little from recent sessions, with 75.5 million shares exchanged worth 993.7 million pesos.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 2.7 percent and the Nasdaq composite index rose 3.6 percent on reports that U.S. troops have moved within miles (kilometers) of the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.

Among the blue chips, bellwether Telmex L shares rose 2.5 percent to 16.16 pesos, media group Televisa CPO shares rose 1.7 percent to 13.99, wireless phone carrier America Movil L shares rose 2.1 percent to 7.44, and retailer Walmex V shares rose 2 percent to 26.51.

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (AP) -- Brazilian shares ended higher Wednesday as investors were cheered by expectations that Congress will approve a bill that gives autonomy to the Central Bank.

The key Ibovespa index ended 2.42 percent higher at 11,872 points on financial volume of 1.42 billion reals. The high volume was helped by a 450 million-real sale of shares in steel maker CSN.

Traders said investors are optimistic Congress will approve the key measure that will remove regulation from Brazil's constitution and in so doing, make the Central Bank independent.

Shares in power distributor Eletropaulo, which has been pounded recently on uncertainties about the company's future as it faces the possibility of bankruptcy and return to government control, soared 7.48 percent to 24.70.

Oil giant Petrobras underperformed the index, climbing 1.45 percent to 48.29 reals while jet maker Embraer rose 1.66 percent to 10.40 reals.

SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) -- Share prices on the Santiago Stock Exchange closed higher Wednesday, boosted by the rising prices on other share markets, led by Chilean American Depositary Receipts, traders said.

Chile's blue-chip Ipsa index rose 0.6 percent to 1,013.14 points from 1,006.93. The narrower Inter-10 index of more liquid, internationally traded Chilean shares gained 0.9 percent to 99.70 from 98.83.

Volume continued low at 4.95 billion from 4.54 billion.

Among the main U.S.-listed gainers, Banco Santander-Chile rose 2.3 percent to 13.15 and telecommunications company CTC's A-shares ended up 0.6 percent at 1,740.Utilities holding Enersis ended up 0.9 percent at 57.50.

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuelan shares ended slightly higher Wednesday, with the IBC General Stock Index closing at 8593 points, up about 0.27 percent.

The market's biggest stock, telephone giant CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela, or CANTV, closed 45 bolivars, or about 2 percent, higher at 2,395 bolivars.

CANTV's American Depositary Receipts, worth seven common shares each, were up 8 cents at US$8.93 each in late afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- Argentine stocks fell back Wednesday, with traders saying uncertainties connected with the upcoming elections were keeping investors subdued.

Since the start of October, the large-cap Merval Index has soared some 43 percent. However, the market fell back during March.

By the session's close, the Merval Index fell 4.29 points or 0.8 percent to 561.55 points. The broader General Index climbed 274.99 points, or 1 percent to 26,733.57 points.

Steel company Tenaris closed down 4.5 percent at 6.40, while food producer Molinos dipped 2.6 percent to 4.53.

Market leader Perez Companc slipped 2.4 percent to 2.05, as Argentina's antitrust body confirmed a fresh delay in approving the company's sale to Brazilian giant Petrobras.

Traders said with investors sitting out of the market at least until after the first round of presidential elections on April 27, the market just ignored Tuesday's relatively good economic news.

<a href=reuters.com>The World Bank Wed April 2, 2003 10:59 AM ET

WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The World Bank on Wednesday predicted Latin America would see a small 1.7 percent bounce in real GDP this year, closing the book on a gloomy 2002 when an Argentine recession weighed the region down.

The projection assumes Argentina will swing into positive growth territory this year. That country's 11-percent drop in gross domestic product was mainly responsible for Latin America's economy shrinking 0.9 percent in 2002, the Bank said.

Excluding Argentina, the region would have grown a modest 0.8 percent.

Looking ahead "the forecast assumes that challenging external financial markets will remain a headwind against the region for the next couple of years, although the worst of the credit cycle is now behind us," the World Bank stated in its latest Global Development Finance report.

For 2004, the World Bank forecasts 3.8 percent growth.

Latin America was the world's worst-performing region last year, pounded by big recessions in Argentina, Venezuela and Uruguay and election uncertainty in Brazil. Sharp drops in capital flows also hurt as investors shunned what the bank calls the "heavily indebted economies of Latin America."

This year, Argentina's GDP should rise 2.6 percent, even though the World Bank cautions the country is a "wild card."

"There is now clear evidence that the economy has moved off its lows and that banks have recovered sufficiently for the payments system to be up and running again," the report says.

"What is unknown is how enduring this phase will be."

If Argentina's presidential elections in April produce a strong government that strikes an early deal with the IMF and external creditors, "then there should be substantial scope for growth."

Argentina and the IMF tried over 11 months to strike a deal for that country to obtain much-needed aid, as both sides haggled over issues that ranged from bank restructurings to utility rates.

Both sides then opted for a more modest agreement that reschedules payments to multilateral lenders until a new government takes over at the end of May.

The report says "gross market-based financial flows" to the region fell by $31 billion, down 40 percent. Net foreign direct investment dropped to $42 billion from $69 billion in 2001, "with declines evident across all countries."

"Sluggish growth and a slowdown in economic and political reforms are expected to continue to hold back FDI flows to Latin America."

Foreign Investment, Remittances Outpace Debt As Sources of Finance For Developing Countries: World Bank