Adamant: Hardest metal

TEXT-S&P raises Trinidad & Tobago sovereign ratings

<a href=reuters.com>Reuters Wed April 2, 2003 04:42 PM ET (The following statement was released by the rating agency)

NEW YORK, April 2 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it raised its long-term local currency sovereign credit rating on the Republic of Trinidad & Tobago to 'A-' from 'BBB+', and its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. At the same time, Standard & Poor's raised its short-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on the republic to 'A-2' from 'A-3'; the 'A-2' short-term local currency rating remained unchanged, and the outlook is stable.

According to sovereign analyst Lisa Schineller, the upgrade reflects continued improvement in Trinidad & Tobago's external debt and liquidity indicators and expected implementation of plans to rationalize inefficient public sector entities. "The country's external financial position continues to strengthen, owing to current account surpluses of 6%-10% of current account receipts and significant inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI)," said Ms. Schineller. "The public sector is a net external creditor, with net assets projected to reach 17% of current account receipts in 2003. The gross external financing requirement is projected at only 8% of reserves in 2003," she added.

Standard & Poor's said that the republic enjoys a booming energy economy, supported by significant FDI that has averaged 7% of GDP since 1998. The broad-based energy matrix, coupled with increased trade and financial integration with the U.S. and other Caribbean economies, underpins trend GDP growth of 4.25% and has allowed the country to effectively weather a cyclical downturn in global demand. Trinidad & Tobago is the global leader in exports of ammonia and methanol globally, and will shortly become the fifth-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. "Geopolitical concerns in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the Middle East have boosted Trinidad & Tobago's reputation as a secure energy supplier, and has raised its profile in the U.S. as a vital geopolitical interest," noted Ms. Schineller. Ms. Schineller said that, equipped with a solid mandate and congressional majority, Prime Minister Patrick Manning's government has presented an agenda to tackle inefficient public entities and reduce fiscal rigidities. The administration has initiated a politically difficult restructuring of the loss-making, state-owned sugar producer Caroni and plans to rationalize operations at other state entities. "These actions are important to continued credit improvement, as several of the state-owned entities are producing increasingly large deficits," advised Ms. Schineller. "Trinidad & Tobago's interest burden of 16% of general government revenue is currently more than twice that of the 'BBB' median. Encouragingly, the government has begun to exercise call options on its expensive local currency debt and to issue lower-coupon debt via a series of local auctions," she added.

Broad policy continuity underscores the republic's stable macroeconomic environment-despite a political impasse in 2002 that contributed to a slowdown in growth and investment. Notwithstanding the government's inability to advance policy initiatives, the central bank and finance ministry were able to maintain sound economic management. There was neither a notable instance of politically motivated violence nor any attempt to use extra-constitutional means to resolve the conflict, which highlights the strength of Trinidad & Tobago's institutions and the political maturity of its population.

"The stable outlook reflects the expectation of continued, strong economic growth underpinned by the energy sector, and for a healthy and improving external position," said Ms. Schineller. "Balancing these positives are continued challenges posed by high structural unemployment, increasing public security concerns, and pressures on the fiscal accounts stemming from inefficient public entities," she concluded. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; under Fixed Income in the left navigation bar, select Credit Ratings Actions.

Beta Oil & Gas, Inc. Announces Additions to Management and Operations Group

<a href=new.stockwatch.com>Stockwatch 2003-04-02 15:30 ET - News Release

TULSA, Okla., April 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Beta Oil & Gas, Inc. ("Company") announced today, additions to the Company's management staff: Mr. Arthur W. "Bill" Howard as Operations Manager and Mr. Richard L. "Rick" Payne as Reservoir and Acquisitions Manager.

Mr. Howard has over 53 years experience in the oil and gas industry and was employed for the last 24 years with Grace, Shursen, Moore and Associates ("GSM"). Mr. Howard, while serving as manager of consulting engineers, worked on numerous projects involving all phases of drilling, completion operations and reservoir evaluation, both domestically and internationally. Previous to GSM, Mr. Howard was employed by Marathon Oil Company and held various engineering positions and ultimately was responsible for all engineering activities in the western U.S. and Canada. Mr. Howard holds his Bachelor and Master of Science degrees in Petroleum Engineering from the University of Tulsa and graduate studies toward a Master of Business Administration degree from Indiana State University. Mr. Howard flew combat missions as a Captain in the United States Air Force in World War II.

Mr. Payne has over 18 years experience in the oil and gas industry including 17 years with ARCO/BP followed by 1 year with Syntroleum Peru Holdings, Ltd (Syntroleum). Mr. Payne served as the General Manager responsible for the start-up operations in Peru for Syntroleum, where he hired and managed the in-country staff to support various LPG and GTL projects that were operated by the company. While at ARCO/BP, Mr. Payne held various engineering and management positions in Alaska, Texas and Venezuela and was ultimately the Exploitation Manager for BP responsible for the Boqueron Field in Eastern Venezuela. Mr. Payne led the subsurface and surface engineering teams supporting the development and operation of the Boqueron field. Mr. Payne holds his Bachelor and Master of Science degrees in chemical engineering from the University of Tulsa and Oklahoma State University respectively and has a Master of Business Administration degree from Southern Methodist University.

David Wilkins, President and CEO of Beta Oil & Gas, Inc. commented; "I am very excited to have both Bill and Rick joining our management team at Beta. Their experience and expertise are already working to optimize our current assets and they will play key roles in helping to identify additional exploitation and potential acquisition opportunities for our company in the future."

Beta Oil & Gas, Inc. is an independent energy company engaged in the production, development and exploration of oil and gas properties. For more information, please contact Steve Fischer at (918) 495-1011.

Forward-Looking Statement: This release includes certain statements that may be deemed to be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address estimates of proved oil and gas reserves, future production, exploration drilling, exploitation activities, capital expenditures, gross unrisked reserve potentials, and events or developments that the company expects or believes are forward-looking statements. Although Beta believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include oil and gas prices, exploitation and exploration successes, continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions. The Company has no obligation to update the statements contained in this report or to take action that is described herein or otherwise presently planned.

Beta Oil & Gas, Inc.

CONTACT: Steve Fischer of Beta Oil & Gas, Inc., +1-918-495-1011

SECOND THOUGHTS: Who cares about the markets now?

Bangkok Post Nikhil B. Srinivasan

Regular readers of this column will note that I have not written about the markets for a few weeks. It should not be too surprising. What's the point? The war _ fed to us non-stop by ``embedded'' journalists _ dominates all trading activity.

It makes predicting expectations and price movements based on anything else virtually impossible. Macro fund managers (the only people making money in markets in the past few months) I know in London and the US all had very light portfolios going into the conflict. And for good reason.

Before the war began, you may recall that everyone had a view. Analysts and fund managers, in Thailand and elsewhere, all had their sound bites to provide. It will be short war'', markets will rally when it starts''.

It was not worth jumping on the bandwagon for a simple reason _ I did not know. I did not feel I possessed any particular edge or knowledge about a situation that was difficult to understand and make a call on. Even US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld _ who knows more than any of us _ has perhaps been wrong-footed.

And as for market rallies, as noted before in this column, when everyone feels the same way about something, it is probably not a bad idea to go the other way. Despite all the talk about war and the market rallying, the SET has not risen since the war began. As I write, it is at 361 _ where it was the day hostilities started.

The war and now the Sars outbreak do help to put things in perspective. First, we live in uncertain political times. The war in Iraq will likely be won soon and with that, oil will drift lower and people may perhaps feel relieved. But there is an equally likely chance the tensions in the Middle East will continue to simmer remaining a distraction for the world. As for the price of oil, whatever happens in the Middle East, problems in Nigeria and Venezuela will mean prices are not going to simply collapse to levels of a year ago.

As for Sars and its impact, it is hard to underestimate the sort of visceral panic that the outbreak is creating. There is no doubt that this is a serious situation compounded by the fact that reaction and preventive measures were slow in coming. Tourism is suffering.

The impact on the markets borders on the irrational, as some would say. Or is it perhaps the most rational behaviour to expect from markets digesting so much simultaneously.

I can tell you this: when it comes to investing in stocks, fundamentals become even more meaningless in such times. I have been harping on this for a while (the fact that uncertain economic situations mean typical methods of stock analysis are not very useful) _ the war and Sars just amplify that point.

It's no use saying a stock is cheap and worth buying _ it just gets cheaper the next day on no particular news. Moreover, earnings numbers for companies become harder to estimate as there are changes in the macro-economic situation _ and if one cannot quickly react to macro changes, the micro picture is not worth looking at. To illustrate: you cannot properly value a stock on an earnings basis if the company itself cannot give you any visibility on its earnings beyond the next, say, six months.

In Thailand, we had good economic data in what was a decent first quarter. The economy can continue to grow at the pace of last year. But for the markets to move out of their current trading range to the upside, two things are required: 1) a return to a more reasonable global environment; 2) some policy move directly affecting the market (e.g. a major privatisation) or a new, large and successful private-sector IPO.

FUTURES MOVERS: Nymex crude at a four-session low. Market expects supply rise; Nigeria averts oil strike

By Myra P. Saefong, <a href=cbs.marketwatch.com>CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 3:05 PM ET April 1, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Expectations for a rise in last week's U.S. oil supplies, combined with reports that Nigeria has averted a strike by petroleum workers, pulled crude futures Tuesday beneath the $30-a-barrel level.

 Underscoring the market's volatility, crude for May delivery traded as low as $29.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It closed down $1.26 at $29.78 a barrel -- its first close under $30 since March 26. The contract had closed the prior session above $31 a barrel for the first time since March 17.

The overnight high of $31.32 will likely be a short-term cap for the price of crude, said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.

Commodities traders, to be sure, kept eyes trained on war-related developments out of Iraq as well. Notably, a strongly worded statement attributed to Saddam Hussein was read on Iraqi state television, but the Iraqi strongman failed to deliver the remarks himself. See story.

This fueled increasing speculation that Saddam is in hiding, is dead or has been mortally wounded, according to Person.

"Caution is warranted," Person said, following news that a three-day strike was averted in Nigeria, a major oil exporter. Nigeria's largest union called off plans for the walkout, which had been scheduled to start Tuesday.

However, these same factors that seem to pressuring oil prices -- the expectations for a rise in U.S. supplies as well as no strike in Nigeria -- "could prove chimerical with the next headline," Fimat USA analyst Michael Fitzpatrick warned clients Tuesday.

Indeed, ethnic violence continued in the Niger Delta and has spread to Nigeria's Port Harcourt area over the past several days. Production there is still down about 800,000 barrels from its daily pace of 2.2 million barrels because of the clashes, according to an Energy Department analysis.

Eyes on supplies

Meanwhile, market expectations are that there will be another large build in domestic oil stocks. The Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute are scheduled to issue their weekly inventory reports early Wednesday.

Person expects the reports to show increases of 3.5 million to 4.8 million barrels in crude inventories for the week ended March 28. Tim Evans, a senior analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York is looking for increases of 2 million to 4 million barrels.

As for distillate supplies, Person's looking for a build of 2.3 million barrels, while Evans expects a drawdown of 1 million to 2 million barrels. Distillates include heating oil and jet fuel.

Gasoline inventories likely rose by 1.8 million barrels in the latest week, Person said, with Evans pegging a range of anywhere from a contraction of 1 million barrels to an expansion of 1 million barrels.

Crude supplies stood nearly 17 percent below where they were a year ago, the Energy Department said in its March 26 supply update. Gasoline inventories were 7.5 percent below the year-ago level, while distillate inventories were down by nearly 21 percent. See full story.

Also on Nymex, May heating oil closed at 74.09 cents a gallon, down 2.99 cents, while May natural gas closed at $5.125 per million British thermal units, up 6.5 cents, and May unleaded gasoline retreated 4.28 cents to 91.42 cents a gallon.

The average U.S. price for gasoline at the pump stood at $1.65 a gallon as of early Tuesday, compared with $1.656 on Monday, according to AAA's daily fuel gauge report. Prices have been on the decline since March 19.

In the Nymex metals pits, gold futures eased back on strength in the U.S. dollar. See Metals Stocks.

And in Tuesday's equity action, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX: news, chart, profile) inched higher. See Energy Stocks.

The pullback in gold and crude weighed on the Reuters/CRB Index, a broad-based measure of the commodity futures market. The index stood at 230, down 0.6 percent. Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

More FUTURES MOVERS •War progress, supply rise push oil under $29 a barrel 2:55pm ET 04/02/03 •Crude ends above $31 on Iraq, Nigeria; corn rallies 3:42pm ET 03/31/03 •Oil prices gain $3 on the week 4:24pm ET 03/28/03 •Iraq, Nigeria obstacles pull crude back above $30 3:24pm ET 03/27/03 •Oil traders keep steady eye on Iraq; Nymex crude gains 3:29pm ET 03/26/03

Latest Industry News   Get Alerted on News in this Industry •Toronto stocks post solid advance 4:32pm ET 04/02/03 •Gold futures drop as much as $7 4:09pm ET 04/02/03 •War progress, supply rise push oil under $29 a barrel 2:55pm ET 04/02/03 •Reader comments 12:47pm ET 04/02/03 •Minor gains for Toronto 5:47pm ET 04/01/03

Stocks Face Hard Slog

Web Resource

WALL STREET BUYERS bided their time Thursday, worried that the war could take much longer than they bargained for. Iraq's refusal to crack under the initial blitz and its success in waging guerilla attacks on coalition supply lines have more and more U.S. commanders speculating that the fighting could last many weeks, maybe months, according to the Washington Post. Its story crystallized the doubts and second-guessing that have shadowed the war effort in recent days.

President George Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair pointedly refused to discuss timetables at a press conference following their Camp David war council. "We will carry on until the job is done. But there is absolutely no point, in my view, of trying to set a time limit or speculate on it," Blair said.

There are already some murmurs in the ranks. "Tell me how this ends," one senior Pentagon officer asked the Post, sounding notably less confident than his bosses.

Traders were not well qualified to answer that question, which is why the Dow finished the session down 28 points to 8201. The Nasdaq retreated 3 to 1384, while the S&P 500 ducked a point to 868.

The selling, never especially brisk, abated notably in the afternoon, then picked up a bit as the closing bell neared. At no point did it panic the momentum players betting on another leg higher.

Airline and aluminum shares continued to struggle. Alcoa (AA), SBC Communications (SBC) and International Paper (IP) dragged down the Dow with drops of nearly 3% apiece.

The strongest blue chip belonged to Dow dog McDonald's (MCD), which gained 2% on hopes that the flabby fast-food chain will disgorge secondary franchises such as Boston Market and Donatos Pizzeria.

Oil drillers were the best-performing sector as the price of U.S. crude for May delivery rose another 6%, topping $30 a barrel. A long interruption of Iraqi oil deliveries would squeeze a supply chain already choked by ethnic violence in Nigeria and the aftermath of the strike in Venezuela. "Inventories need to start climbing very sharply to give any chance of avoiding a huge spike in gasoline prices," a J.P. Morgan analyst told Reuters.

Persistently high fuel prices could be the final straw for airlines coping with a 10% drop in traffic from unimpressive prewar levels. Continental's (CAL) U.S. bookings are down 20%, while its international business has slumped 40%.

The airline warned of "significant losses for the foreseeable future," not that Wall Street was expecting any different. It also revealed that the boss got an 82% pay raise to $7.6 million last year. The stock fell 7%.

High oil prices should be a boon for big supplier ChevronTexaco (CVX). But that stock fell 1% after the company previewed up to $300 million in upcoming after-tax charges for an accounting change and higher pension costs.

In contrast, Tommy Hilfiger (TOM) shares strutted to a 24% gain on a Wall Street Journal report that clothing maker Jones Apparel Group (JNY) is considering a winsomely wholesome buyout.

Whereas Robert Mondavi (MOND) shares spilled 6% after the wine maker warned it was fermenting a net loss and less than half the pro-forma quarterly profit it had forecast. The weak economy is diluting sales.

Shares of Steel Technologies (STTX) corroded 8% after the mill operator cut its own quarterly outlook roughly in half, citing weak sales and margins.

That news came as the World Trade Organization issued an interim ruling against U.S. steel tariffs.

Economic data got short shrift from traders fixated on a distant war. Unemployment claims fell 25,000 to a still-high 402,000 last week. The economy was confirmed to have grown at an annual pace of 1.4% in fourth quarter, back when Iraq was less of an issue.

Bonds inched up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 3.92% from Wednesday's 3.93%. The two-year note yielded 1.61%, down from 1.62% a day earlier.

SmartMoney.com © 2003 SmartMoney. SmartMoney is a joint publishing venture of Dow Jones Company, Inc. and Hearst Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All quotes delayed by 20 minutes. Delayed quotes provided by S&P Comstock. Historical prices and fundamental data provided by Media General Financial Services. Mutual fund data provided by Morningstar. Mutual Fund NAVs are as of previous day's close. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks Investment Research. Insider trading data provided by Thomson Financial. Upgrades and downgrades provided by Briefing.com.

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