Stocks slip...Personal income seen edging up...Sentiment flat?
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New York-AP -- Wall Street remains focused on the Iraqi war, and that has the market putting in some choppy performances.
Yesterday (Thursday) stocks ended little changed, but not before opening sharply lower, clawing their way into positive territory, and then slipping a bit by the close.
The chief concern right now is that the fighting could last for months, putting pressure on an already sluggish economy as uneasy businesses and consumers curtail their spending.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 28 points at 82-oh-one. The Dow retreated 50 points on Wednesday and shed 307 on Monday, the market's worst day in six months.
The market's broader gauges also posted modest losses. The Nasdaq composite fell three points to 13-hundred-84. The Standard and Poor's 500 index declined a point and a-half to 868.
(Washington-Dow Jones/AP) -- Economists are looking for a very modest increase in personal income in February.
The market consensus forecast is for income to have risen two-tenths of one percent and for personal spending to have slipped two tenths of a percent.
A survey by Dow Jones Newswires and business channel C-N-B-C came up with a slightly different result -- a minimal one-tenth percent increase in personal income and an unchanged level of consumer spending.
The data will be of interest to analysts who are keeping a close on the habits of consumers.
The Commerce Department is due to release the personal income and consumption data for February at 8:30 a-m Eastern time.
(New York-Dow Jones/AP) -- The University of Michigan's final consumer-sentiment reading for March is expected to be unchanged from the preliminary reading.
The median estimate of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and financial news channel C-N-B-C is for the Michigan consumer sentiment index to hold at the mid-month reading of 75. But that would be a decline from the 79-point-nine reading at the end of February.
The University of Michigan is expected to release its consumer sentiment index to subscribers around 9:45 a-m Eastern time.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board released its March index of consumer confidence, which fell to 62-point-five from 64-point-eight in February.
(New York-AP) -- Oil prices have risen above 30 dollars-a-barrel for the first time since war broke out in Iraq.
In New York futures trading, crude for May delivery rose a-dollar-74 yesterday (Thursday) to close at 30 dollars, 37 cents a barrel.
In fact, the price of oil on futures markets has risen nearly 13 percent since last Friday, when it dropped to a three-month low.
There are concerns about worldwide supplies as the prospect grows that the military conflict with Iraq could be prolonged.
That's not the only thing traders are worried about.
Commercial inventories of crude are extremely low in the United States at a time when refiners are cranking out gasoline for the summer driving season.
Also, supplies from Nigeria and Venezuela are down because of labor strife. Those problems along with the lack of Iraqi exports have taken more than three (m) million barrels a day out of the world market.
(Washington-AP) -- Ignoring calls for more time, Federal Communications Commission Chairman Michael Powell says the government's media ownership review will be completed in June.
Powell says regulators probably will vote June second on a broad overhaul of rules limiting ownership of newspapers and radio and T-V stations.
The agency is studying whether decades-old ownership restrictions are suitable for a market altered by satellite broadcasts, cable television and the Internet. Powell repeatedly has said changes are needed.
It is widely believed the two other Republicans on the five-member commission also want to loosen regulations.
The owners of the four major television networks have asked the F-C-C to abolish the ownership rules, saying the regulations restrict their ability to grow and stay competitive.
Critics say weakened restrictions will lead to more mergers and a few large companies controlling what people read, hear and watch.
Copyright 2003 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
OIL UPDATE: Nymex Extends Gains On War Uncertainty
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Tuesday March 25, 2:20 PM
By Irene Kwek Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures continued to extend gains in after-hours trading Tuesday, as growing concerns of a prolonged war against Iraq and worries over Nigerian oil output helped to lift the entire petroleum complex.
Front-month May crude futures headed higher in Access trade during most of the Asia day, and hit a session high at $29.05 a barrel. At 0600 GMT, Nymex May was up 34 cents at $29.00/bbl after surging 6.5% during floor trade Monday.
"It's relatively bullish with the fundamental underlying strength coming from Nigeria and the Iraq (war)," a broker said, adding that he expected the buying from London and U.S. traders to continue later in the day.
Initial resistance for the front-month contract was at $29.50/bbl, and then at the 200-day moving average of $29.63/bbl, the broker added.
"The realization set in that this would be a longer war than the enthusiasm showed in the market last week," a U.S.-based broker said.
The gains by crude helped to lift Asian oil product prices. Singapore fuel oil cash prices were pegged at $170-$171 a metric ton from $164.50/ton Monday. Fuel oil swaps climbed to $161.25-$164.50/ton from $157.50/ton Monday.
Open-spec naphtha outright prices were pegged at $281-$283/ton for second-half May, cost-and-freight Japan, compared with $273.50/ton done Tuesday.
Rally Likely To Continue
Looking ahead, analysts and traders expect Nymex crude futures to retest the key $30/bbl level.
"It will probably trade back up and go toward. $30/bbl... It's up almost $2/bbl (since Friday), and it may even go up to $30/bbl tomorrow," the U.S.-based broker said.
Moreover, a flight to quality from investors due to fears of a long war will help support the bullish trend.
"There are signs of the flow of money out of stocks and into gold, commodities. We would see some amount of buying in crude in line with the flight to quality," the broker added.
"It's going to be on the upside because it looks like the war is going to keep dragging on longer than what people have been expecting," echoed a Merrill Lynch energy analyst.
"But the other thing that could keep oil prices in check is that we are not witnessing any destruction of Iraqi oil production facilities and the disruption of oil exports from the Persian Gulf," the analyst noted.
In a report distributed Monday, Merrill Lynch said it adjusted its 30-day range for crude prices downwards to $26.25-$33/bbl "to account for the lack of debilitating supply impact since the onset of hostilities."
Nigerian Oil Output
Further fueling the rally, problems in Nigeria lent further support to the bullish sentiment as ethnic violence has sharply curtailed the country's oil output by as much as 40%. Shell Development Petroleum, a unit of Royal Dutch/Shell (RD) Monday said it shut in 370,000 bbls a day in crude output.
Nigeria was the fifth-largest exporter of crude oil to the U.S. in January, and its crude is valued for high gasoline yields.
May gasoline futures staged a 1.07 cent gain during Access trade to 89.99 cents/gallon at 0542 GMT, underscoring concerns of tight gasoline supplies as the U.S. moves towards its driving season.
In its report, Merrill Lynch noted that the partial outage in Nigerian production highlighted limited spare production capacity among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which have been strained by strikes in Venezuela earlier in the year and Iraq, starting last week.
The disruption in Iraq and Nigerian oil output has taken about 3 million barrels/day out of the market. Saudi Arabia and other producers have made up that shortfall, but their ability to absorb shocks is almost exhausted as they are already producing beyond their sustainable capacity.
Despite the reduction in oil output from both Iraq and Nigeria, market participants said they didn't expect a release of stocks from strategic reserves.
"I don't see any sell off" or the market pricing in such a release, said one broker. "If anything, the market is anticipating very little out of the strategic reserves."
The U.S. administration said it is watching Nigeria's oil supply disruption and the broader oil market closely, a U.S. Department of Energy spokesman said late Monday.
The Bush administration maintains that the U.S. hasn't experienced an energy supply disruption severe enough to warrant emergency release of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the spokesman said.
On the Iraq war front, market participants are taking account of reports that the oil fields in southern Iraq aren't as secure as assumed last week. Fighting around burning oil wells in the Rumaila oil fields has driven out civilian firefighters, days after they were secured by coalition forces, an official said Monday.
Meanwhile, the Kirkuk oil fields in the Northern remain under Iraqi government control.
-By Irene Kwek, Dow Jones Newswires; +65-64154062; irene.kwek@dowjones.com
Toho +4.0%, But Won't Be Spirited Up
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Monday March 24, 12:09 PM
1309 [Nikkei/Dow Jones] No extra lift for movie producer-distributor Toho (9602) on Oscar for animated feature "Spirited Away"; company only distributed film, and was not on production team, so doesn't benefit from videos, TV airings, says player. Issue up 4.0% at Y1,119, edging down from Y1,120 morning high. (FKH)
1301 [Nikkei/Dow Jones] Osaka market up and expected to hold early gains as higher dollar providing solid support to major exporters like Rohm (6963), Nintendo (7974) and Murata Manufacturing (6981). "The strong buying interest from the morning has carried over to afternoon trade," says trader. OSE adjusted average up 2.5% at 13870.85.(JSH)
1255 [Nikkei/Dow Jones] Ishizuka Glass (5204) may start paring early gains after leading maker of glass bottles and tableware says in midday break it now expects Y280 million group net loss for FY through this month, vs previous forecast for Y150 million profit. Company blames evaluation losses on its bank shareholdings. Shares up 1.3% at Y157, just off morning close Y158. (JSH)
1240 [Dow Jones] May Nymex crude may have been oversold on speculation of quick U.S.-led victory in Iraq, says HSBC oil and gas analyst Gordon Kwan; "prices could retest $30 a barrel again this week unless the military operations were extremely smooth going into Baghdad." Deteriorating situation in Nigeria, off-peak production in Venezuela and some lost output in Iraq, Kuwait to help prop up prices. (ILK)
1215 [Dow Jones] Movie producer-distributor Toho (9602) may rise further on news its animated feature "Spirited Away" has won an Oscar; film, which grossed only $5.5 million in U.S., was surprise winner against field of nominees that included $100 million Hollywood hits "Ice Age" and "Lilo & Stitch." Issue up 3.9% at Y1,118 midday. (ABR)
1201 [Dow Jones] "Tsutaya" video and CD rental store operator Culture Convenience Club (4756), or CCC, may not rise much ahead of 16:30 tie-up announcement with Nippon Oil (5001); tie-up may allow CCC's 18 million members to obtain benefits at Nippon Oil's 12,000 "Eneos" gas stations nationwide. Follows similar CCC tie-up with Lawson (2651) earlier this month. CCC shares down 0.8% midday at Y2,975; may be top-heavy as above 25-day average Y2,896. (HIK)
OCBC Keeps Underperform On Courts
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Monday March 24, 12:02 PM
Contact Us: Kuala Lumpur 603-2692-5254
1202 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: OCBC Investment Research keeps underperform on Courts Mammoth (5023); company hurting from competition and soft demand. Projects moderate topline growth and EBITDA margins of 15-16% in FY03-04, below historical range of 20-24%. Adds, stock unattractive with prospective PER of 13-14X and annual dividend yields of 1-2% vs sector average of 4-5%. (VGB)
1134 [Dow Jones] May Nymex crude may have been oversold on speculation of quick U.S.-led victory in Iraq, says HSBC oil and gas analyst Gordon Kwan; "prices could retest $30 a barrel again this week unless the military operations were extremely smooth going into Baghdad." Deteriorating situation in Nigeria, off-peak production in Venezuela and some lost output in Iraq, Kuwait to help prop up prices. (ILK)
1131 [Dow Jones] Dataprep Holdings (8338) suspended untraded at MYR1.23; March 21 announced subsidiary served winding-up petition on March 19 by Fujitsu Systems Business for MYR3.2 million with overdue interest of MYR210,606.51. Trader expects company to make announcement after hours to address next course of action. Does not expect any significant on share price as amount is relatively small. (VGB)
1122 [Dow Jones] Eden Enterprises Warrants (7471W) up 19.6% at 55 sen as syndicates help support strong gains on a fundamentally weak issue, says trader. Adds, recently issued irredeemable convertible unsecured loan stocks (7471-LA), which were undersubscribed with only 32.9% acceptance, now trading at premium 5.8% premium, or MYR1.65, to mother share price of MYRE1.56. Says significant block placed out to operators to help support share price. Advises staying away from stock. (VGB)
1105 [Dow Jones] Tanah Emas (7382) up 1.5% in speculative trade. Stock exhibiting significant price volatility in recent weeks, believed to be initiated by syndicated play, encouraging punters to take positions and potentially capitalize on price movements, says trader. "Today's range has been tight but the stock has climbed from a low of MYR1.26 to a peak at MYR1.38 today," says trader. However, year high MYR1.41, suggesting upside limited. (VGB)
1040 [Dow Jones] MMC Engineering (2178) untraded at MYR4.10 despite indications from parent MMC (2194) it does not plan to maintain its' units listed status. Trader says upside limited after taking into consideration transaction costs. MMC made a voluntary offer for MMC Eng. shares for MYR4.30/share or 2 MMC shares for every existing MMC Eng. shares. As of March 11, MMC owns 75% of MMC Eng. MMC flat at MYR2.06. (VGB)
1012 [Dow Jones] Kumpulan Emas (3557) up 1.4% at 36.5 sen on news unit Salcon Engineering secured MYR35 million water project from Sabah Water Department. Project, aimed at reducing non-revenue water losses, includes setting-up metered zones network, pressure management system, repair of leakages and replacement of pipelines. Contract is for 30 months period starting April 16. (VGB)
0955 [Dow Jones] MSNBC TV quotes unnamed U.S. military officials as saying special operations teams and units of CIA are in Baghdad; officials hint recent explosions there (with no air raid sirens or indications of U.S. aircraft overhead) may have been work of Iraqi resistance groups, possibly working with U.S. forces. Unclear if this is just U.S. disinformation, but it may help sustain markets' hopes for quick U.S. victory.(AXT)
0941 [Dow Jones] U.S. officials say U.S. troops have found suspected "chemical factory" in south Iraq, but don't confirm whether it's actually believed to be chemical weapons facility as Fox TV reported earlier. If U.S. can prove Iraq had major WMD projects, it will greatly help to justify U.S. decision to go to war in court of world opinion, and reduce negative geopolitical fallout from war - so positive for USD and equities. (AXT)
0934 [Dow Jones] IOI Corp. (1961) down 2.6% at MYR4.58, revisiting 13-month low of MYR4.54 as investors continue to sell stock following acquisition of plantation property from major shareholders. "A kaleidoscope of reasons have been provided as to why this is a bad deal, but investors are ignoring the fact that the deal is, in fact, 10-12% earnings enhancing going forward," says foreign analyst. Adds current share price weakness is purely sentiment driven and is excellent opportunity to accumulate stock. Warrants offer cheaper exposure; down 2.6% at MYR1.50. (VGB)
0921 [Dow Jones] Technology subindex up 2.5% at 38.48, led by strong gains in semiconductor assemblers MPI (3867), up 3.6% at MYR11.40 and Unisem (5005), up 3.8% at MYR4.98. Trader cites firmer close on NASDAQ Friday but cautions both stocks off early highs and may retreat further on profit-taking. (VGB)
0916 [Dow Jones] KLCI up 0.3% at 633.88 in follow-through buying interest, reflecting firmer U.S. markets Friday. Profit-taking on handful of blue chips beginning to emerge, suggesting upside limited. "Retail players have been chasing penny stocks and speculative issues higher since last week but buying interest is likely to fade as profit-taking accelerates," she adds. Expects KLCI to trade within 630-635 level. Volume traded moderate with 16.5 million shares valued at MYR24.5 million changing hands. Rises lead falls 137 to 13; 46 flat while 932 untraded. (VGB)
0902 [Dow Jones] Select plantation stocks may attract speculative buying interest as players punt on various merger scenarios following DPM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's announcement last week about potential consolidation of government-linked companies. Trader says of the 7 companies, punters are likely to accumulate Austral Enterprises (1872), Guthrie Ropel (2399), Highland & Lowlands (2402), Island & Peninsular (1627). (VGB)
0857 [Dow Jones] Malaysia Airports' (5014) shares may edge up after KLIA named best Asian cargo airport in category for cargo-handling of less than 500,000 tonnes a year. Analyst says award suggests KLIA's efforts to focus on cargo-handling bearing fruit; transshipment cargo up 35% on year in 2002. Shares ended down 1.3% Friday at MYR1.52.(CAL)
0837 [Dow Jones] Malaysia PM Mahathir to address special session on Iraq at Parliament at 0200 GMT, say his spokespeople; no details on speech topic but some analysts say he may present much-anticipated economic stimulus package; officials have recently said package will be presented earlier than scheduled April 7 due to onset of U.S.-led attack on Iraq last week. (CAL)
UBS Warburg Ups DCA Group Forecasts
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Monday March 24, 12:02 PM
Contact Us: Sydney 61-2-8235-2950; djnews.sydney@dowjones.com
1501 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: DCA Group's (DVC) acquisition of Melbourne facilities significant, fulfills company target for 500 new beds in FY03, says UBS Warburg. "The acquisition of the 2 facilities has seen our FY04 NPAT increase by 5.8% to A$21.8 million and our FY05 NPAT increase by 4.4% to A$28.3 million," says analyst. Maintains Buy rating, 12-month share price target A$2.24 vs latest A$1.57. (BAM)
1458 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 11 points or 0.4% at 2855.0, stalling after negative developments for coalition forces in Iraq over weekend triggered early selloff. With S&P 500 futures down 1.0% in after-hours trade, dealers fear possible dip on Wall Street tonight. Nikkei 225 ignoring these concerns with 2.7% rise, but oil and bonds reflecting U.S. stock movements after-hours. NYMEX oil futures up 43 cents at US$27.34/barrel, while 30-year bond yield down 2 bps at 5.01%. Gold near flat at US$327.15. (DWR)
1453 [Dow Jones] BHP Billiton (BHP) Petroleum Chief Philip Aiken says US$20 billion Malaysia LNG sale to Japan doesn't threaten NW Shelf, main market for which is Japan. "At the moment we have got 15% of the Japanese market and I think there is a good chance that we will continue to have that," Aiken tells reporters, adding reliability a key attraction. BHP, Woodside (WPL) one-sixth participants in shelf. Shelf riding high after China deal last year, recent South Korea sale, but Malaysia shows competition heating up. There is concern shelf offered cheap price to get China business. (AND)
1449 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS Warburg downgrades shipbuilder Austal (ASB) to Reduce from Neutral following 60% share price rise from record low of 47 cents early this month. Leaves 65-cent valuation unchanged but increases price target to 60 cents from 54 cents. Shares last up 1 cent at 78 cents. (BAM)
1447 [Dow Jones] BHP Billiton's (BHP) head of petroleum Philip Aiken says acquisitions remain in the mix but will need "good strategic reason." Notes that BHP Billiton lacks some operating skills in deepwater and that an acquisition which brought such skills "would appeal to us quite strongly." Queried on whether it has held any more M&A talks with Shell and Woodside (WPL), he simply says "no." Petroleum star performer for BHP with strong orangic growth outlook, but faces near-term production fall in 2003, 2004. BHP down 0.4% at A$9.35. Woodside down 2.4% at A$10.89. (AND)
1440 [Dow Jones] Spot gold up $1.07 at $327.25/oz vs late NY, but upside capped after metal faltered after early push to day's high of $328.45, says Tokyo-based trader. Japanese investors, initially buying spot gold to arbitrage on sales of Tocom futures, turning sellers; they prefer to stay long but not overly so, as prices still volatile while Iraq war progresses. Pegs $325-$329 range for rest of Asian trade. (WCP)
1435 [Dow Jones] AUD 1-month vols little changed from last week at 10.25%-10.55% as spot AUD/USD trades in narrow band and seems to be building good support base around 0.5890 (currently 0.5926); trader at major Australian bank says vols could edge higher as U.S.-led forces encounter more resistance in Iraq than many in markets expected. (CMR)
1433 [Dow Jones] May Nymex crude may have been oversold on speculation of quick U.S.-led victory in Iraq, says HSBC oil and gas analyst Gordon Kwan; "prices could retest $30 a barrel again this week unless the military operations were extremely smooth going into Baghdad." Deteriorating situation in Nigeria, off-peak production in Venezuela and some lost output in Iraq, Kuwait to help prop up prices. (ILK)
1425 [Dow Jones] News Corp (NCP) price drop could be due to combo of factors, including profit-taking after last week's gains, anticipation of Wall Street weakness on account of setbacks in Iraq war and report that Murdoch may pay US$7 billion for DirecTV, says analyst. On latter issue, analyst notes market has only sketchy media report to deal with, and it isn't clear whether US$7 billion price tag is for all of DirecTV. Figure may spook some investors, who in past have read about supposed US$3 billion deal, but percentage of equity involved at those two price levels probably quite different. NCP ordinary shares off 3.1% at A$10.93. (HGU)
1348 [Dow Jones] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BHP Billiton (BHP) down 7 cents or 0.8% at A$9.32. Stock was rejected from approach of Fibonacci resistance at A$9.68 last week, followed by pivot point reversal and break of initial support at A$9.47. Daily momentum indicators show sell signals. However, downside may prove limited as weekly chart is also ranging and weekly momentum indicators moving up from oversold, says Dow Jones analyst David Rogers. Allow for near-term dip to A$9.00. Note support from uptrend line off A$8.27, currently at A$8.99. (DWR)
1339 [Dow Jones] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Commonwealth Bank (CBA) down 5 cents or 0.2% at A$24.98, having shied off tough resistance at A$25.30 (downtrend line from A$32.26) and A$25.41 (Feb 24 high). Daily and weekly charts trending down strongly, close below A$24.85 would give reversal signal. Daily momentum indicators threatening to peak at or near overbought. Long-term uptrend line broke at A$28.00 on Nov 7 and major Fibonacci support at A$23.81 (38.2% of A$5.80-A$34.94) broke March 12. Expect another dip below A$24.00 and possible retest of A$23.05 March low, says Dow Jones analyst David Rogers. (DWR)
1336 [Dow Jones] Woolworths (WOW) CEO Roger Corbett tells reporters at store opening that outbreak of war in Iraq has had no impact so far on its retail operations. Comment differs from Coles Myer (CML) CEO John Fletcher saying Sunday that all retailers will probably see some short-term effect of people doing less discretionary shopping than they may have in light of war, but that unlikely to be permanent. Retailers underperforming, CML down 1.2% at A$6.03, Woolworths (WOW) down 1% at A$11.78, while broader market down 0.3%. (LXV MDB)
1328 [Dow Jones] Nikkei continues to rise on war-led rally; but index fate today depends on result of basket trading during midday break, traders say; some predicting midday trade to show selling as players take profits. If that happens, expect buying to slow; even with support of some last-minute buying by public pension funds, index could finish in 8300-8400 range. On broader TSE first section, gainers outnumber decliners 1278 to 134, with 103 flat. (MYA)