www.barbadosadvocate.com Web Posted - Thu Mar 13 2003

CARIBBEAN tourism is bracing for international conflict and its associated hardship, as the Bush administration presses for war with Iraq.

Considering this region’s dependence on the outside world for tourists, oil and other trade, and the lingering hangover from the economic fallout of the attacks of 9/11, most commentators believe that Caribbean economies will suffer significantly if the looming war becomes a reality.

“The context is already a bad one,” Anthony Gonzalves, director of the Institute of International Relations at the University of the West Indies, recently commented. “If you impose a war on the current situation, you’ll see how much worse it can get.”

Caribbean governments are attempting to cushion the anticipated fallout by seeking price guarantees on oil and developing plans to boost travel promotion, but their ability to cushion the impact may be limited.

“No one believes this war would be good for business,” said Jean Holder, secretary-general of the Caribbean Tourism Organisation. “We pray that it doesn’t break out.”

This region is, however, accustomed to buffeting by outside forces. Tourism has yet to recover fully from the terrorist attacks in the United States, whilst he flow of oil from Venezuela remains uncertain.

The European Community is phasing out preferential prices for bananas and sugar. The offshore banking and insurance industry remain under pressure from international organisations.

Tourism, however, has the most to lose, as a US attack on Iraq would strike directly at the Caribbean’s largest industry. As many as 20 million visitors – more than half of them from the United States – pump billions of dollars into the region annually. That trade, which employs as much as three-quarters of the workforce on some islands, is still recovering from a ten per cent drop in arrivals since September 11, 2001.

“If there’s a war, people don’t go on holidays,” Edward Carrington, secretary-general of the Caribbean Community, said last month.

During the 1991 Persian Gulf War, tourist visits to some islands fell by as much as 30 per cent. Simon Suarez, president of the Caribbean Hotel Association, said a similar experience now would be “a terrific blow.”

“There are quite clear signs of recovery, but that could come to a sudden stop if this war actually goes and if it lasts a long time,” said Suarez, an executive with Coral Hotels and Resorts in the Dominican Republic.

“The long-term effect will be that there will be a gap in the growth pattern.”

Holder said the impact might not be as negative as feared. In 1991, some American vacationers who would otherwise have gone overseas to Europe, visited the Caribbean instead. After the war, the region recovered more quickly than other parts of the world.

Still, Holder said, any additional decline would further burden the struggling airline industry. United and US Airways already have declared bankruptcy, and analysts have speculated American Airlines – the leading carrier to the Caribbean – could follow suit.

Reliance on fuel imports makes the Caribbean vulnerable to oil price hikes. The recent reduction in flow from Venezuela during the general strike against the government of President Hugo Chavez, sparked walkouts by transportation workers in Guyana and Haiti, and raised consumer prices on several islands.

Oil-producing Trinidad and Tobago already told its neighbours it would not be able to hold prices to a “pre-Iraq war” level, should hostilities commence.

The nation imports half the petroleum it refines, and so is also vulnerable to world price fluctuations.

“Our willingness to empathise is not supported by the realities of our own situation,” Prime Minister Patrick Manning said.

War plans are affecting the US territories in another way. In Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, thousands of Army reservists and National Guardsmen are answering the call to service; in the case of Puerto Rico, those numbers are the largest in island history. While troops train with weapons and gas masks, the government has opened several family- support centres.

At the governmental level, the region’s leaders – with the exception of Cuba’s Fidel Castro – have sounded a more measured ambivalence.

In a communiqué last month, the heads of the Caribbean Community bloc of 15 nations called on the United States to exercise restraint while urging Iraq to co-operate fully with weapons inspectors.

“These islands are economically dependent on the United States,” said Ralph Premdas, a professor of public policy at the University of the West Indies. “I don’t think you’re going to find any place except for Cuba officially coming out against the war.”

Instead, leaders are preparing contingency plans. In Puerto Rico, for example, the government has pre-purchased ten million barrels of petroleum at a fixed price, and invested in hedges – insurance to protect against fluctuations in fuel prices – for 2.7 million barrels more. The US commonwealth has set aside $3.5 million for additional tourist promotion.

The Caribbean Hotel Association has advised members on public relations messages – promoting, for example, perceptions of the region as safe and affordable – while urging them to establish more flexible cancellation policies for travellers stranded by events.

www.ctnow.com March 12, 2003 By MATTHEW HAY BROWN, Courant Staff Writer SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- As the Bush administration presses for war with Iraq, the Caribbean is bracing for more hardship. Deeply dependent on the outside world for tourists, oil and other trade, and still recovering from the economic fallout of the attacks of 9/11, the region of mostly poor nations would be profoundly affected by hostilities in the Middle East. "The context is already a bad one," said Anthony Gonzales, director of the Institute of International Relations at the University of the West Indies. "If you impose a war on the current situation, you'll see how much worse it can get." Governments in the 30-odd island nations and territories have attempted to soften the anticipated blow by seeking price guarantees on oil and developing plans to boost travel promotion. But their ability to cushion the impact may be limited. "No one believes this war would be good for business," said Jean Holder, secretary-general of the Caribbean Tourism Organization. "We pray that it doesn't break out." The region is accustomed to buffeting by outside forces. Tourism has yet to recover fully from the terrorist attacks in the United States. The flow of oil from Venezuela remains uncertain. The European Community is phasing out preferential prices for bananas and sugar. Foreign investors continue to flee offshore banking. A U.S. attack on Iraq would strike directly at the Caribbean's largest industry. As many as 20 million visitors - more than half of them from the United States - pump billions of dollars into the region annually. That trade, which employs as much as three-quarters of the workforce on some islands, still is recovering from a 10 percent drop in arrivals since Sept. 11, 2001. But, as Edward Carrington, secretary-general of the Caribbean Community, said last month: "If there's a war, people don't go on holidays." During the 1991 Persian Gulf War, tourist visits to some islands fell by as much as 30 percent. Simon Suarez, president of the Caribbean Hotel Association, said a similar experience now would be "a terrific blow." "There are quite clear signs of recovery, but that could come to a sudden stop if this war actually goes and if it lasts a long time," said Suarez, an executive with Coral Hotels and Resorts in the Dominican Republic. "The long-term effect will be that there will be a gap in the growth pattern." Holder said the impact might not be as negative as feared. In 1991, some American vacationers who would otherwise have gone overseas to Europe visited the Caribbean instead. After the war, the region recovered more quickly than other parts of the world. Still, Holder said, any additional decline would further burden the struggling airline industry. United and US Airways already have declared bankruptcy, and analysts have speculated American Airlines - the leading carrier to the Caribbean - could follow suit. Reliance on fuel imports makes the Caribbean vulnerable to oil price hikes. The recent reduction in flow from Venezuela during the general strike against the government of President Hugo Chavez sparked walkouts by transportation workers in Guyana and Haiti and raised consumer prices on several islands. Oil-producing Trinidad and Tobago already told its neighbors it would not be able to hold prices to a "pre-Iraq war" level should hostilities commence. The nation imports half the petroleum it refines, and so is also vulnerable to world price fluctuations. "Our willingness to empathize is not supported by the realities of our own situation," Prime Minister Patrick Manning said. War plans are affecting the U.S. territories in another way. In Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, thousands of Army reservists and National Guardsmen are answering the call to service; in the case of Puerto Rico, those numbers are the largest in island history. While troops train with weapons and gas masks, the government has opened several family-support centers. At the governmental level, the region's leaders - with the exception of Cuba's Fidel Castro - have sounded a more measured ambivalence. In a communique last month, the heads of the Caribbean Community bloc of 15 nations called on the United States to exercise restraint while urging Iraq to cooperate fully with weapons inspectors. "These islands are economically dependent on the United States," said Ralph Premdas, a professor of public policy at the University of the West Indies. "I don't think you're going to find any place except for Cuba officially coming out against the war." Instead, leaders are preparing contingency plans. In Puerto Rico, for example, the government has pre-purchased 10 million barrels of petroleum at a fixed price, and invested in hedges - insurance to protect against fluctuations in fuel prices - for 2.7 million barrels more. The U.S. commonwealth has set aside $3.5 million for additional tourist promotion. The Caribbean Hotel Association has advised members on public relations messages - promoting, for example, perceptions of the region as safe and affordable - while urging them to establish more flexible cancellation policies for travelers stranded by events.

www.puertoricowow.com Wednesday, March 5th, 2003.  

SAN JUAN (AP) – The price of gas containers has increased by almost 50%. Importing companies have deemed the hike dramatic.

Humberto Berrios, president of Tropigas, said he paid 50 cents per gallon a year ago and now he pays 91 cents.

According to published reports, the hike in gasoline prices has been partly linked to the possible war against Iraq.

In addition, the harsh winter in the mainland U.S. has increased demand for this product. The crisis in Venezuela has also affected the fuel supply in the past two months.

Ninety percent of the imported gas in Puerto Rico comes from Venezuela. The halt in its production made it necessary to import gas from farther places like Argentina and Argelia, thus increasing its cost.

antiguasun.caribbeanads.com 03/05/2003

Antiguans & Barbudans may soon be paying more at the pumps for gasoline. This was disclosed in a press release issued by the Prime Ministers office stating that the government had been forced to review the controlled Pricing Structure for fuel.

The release states that the government has set a fixed pump price of $6.85 up to the point where the market price reaches $2.60. Increases above this point would be passed on to the pump.

This means that the price at the pump would adjust upwards from $6.85 in line with market prices as translated through the price build up.

The old controlled Pricing Structure will be replaced with a new Flexible Pricing Policy that will reduce the Government’s input in the price of the gasoline allowing for the market force to determine the price at the pumps.

This move by the government, according to a source from the private sector, will adversely affect the cost of transportation. This may cause bus and taxi fares to be increased. Additionally, the source suggested that the government’s timing in making this announcement might be linked to the fact that oil prices will remain high due to the pending US/Iraq war.

However, the government views the move from a Controlled Pricing Structure to a Flexible Pricing Policy as significant to meeting its obligations and maintaining a stable economy.

The release further stated that a review of current fuel prices within the OECS shows that Antigua & Barbuda’s pricing for gasoline in particular ($6.8506) is below all other islands except St. Kitts/Nevis. These countries are also reviewing their fixed pricing policy in view of the current market prices.

The threat of war in Iraq and the current unstable conditions in Venezuela have forced fuel prices upwards around the world and oil markets anticipate that an attack on Iraq may lead to broader disruption around the Middle East, which supplies about two-fifths of globally traded crude.

Presently, oil prices are on average almost 60 per cent higher than they were a year ago.

Since 1980 Antigua & Barbuda has adopted a Controlled Pricing Structure, absorbing the cost in the rise of fuel and accepting gains in the lowering in cost, which over time balances out.

The Controlled Pricing Structure also ensured that the price at the pump was kept stable by variation in the Consumption Tax. This has been achieved through an agreed price build up structure between the monopoly supplier, the West Indies Oil Company Ltd., (WIOC) and the government.

All the elements of the pricing structure are fixed except for product price and Consumption Tax.

The Controlled Pricing Policy used by the government over the years meant that whenever there was an increase in product price on the market, the government experienced falling Consumption Tax yield.

This is the case currently, hence, in the long run the price of fuel at the pump remains relatively stable.

The present market trend in oil prices with the Controlled Pricing Policy in place will produce a significant loss in revenue from Consumption Tax from the importation of fuel and poses a considerable threat to the government’s ability to service its financial obligations.

The Flexible Pricing Structure will become effective upon the arrival of the next shipment of fuel ordered by the West Indies Oil Company Ltd.

The SUN spoke to several Service Station operators, last night, who were not aware of this new development.

pennlive.com?/ The Associated Press 3/1/03 6:58 PM

GUYANA: Police investigating reports that officers fired on carload of students, killing one

GEORGETOWN, Guyana (AP) -- Police said Saturday they were investigating reports that officers had shot at a carload of students, killing one and injuring two others.

The four university students and one high-school student had been driving home Saturday morning from playing basketball in the northern suburbs of the capital, Georgetown, when police began shooting at them with rifles and handguns, witnesses said.

Several police officers at Georgetown Hospital said on condition of anonymity that they had information suggesting the students were armed criminal suspects.

The police department said in a statement that it was investigating the incident, but did not take responsibility for the shootings.

Yohance Douglas, 17, died of gunshot wounds to his torso, while Ronson Gray, 19, and Oneal King, 18, were injured but in stable condition.

The other two students, who were uninjured, were detained by police for questioning, the police said.

UNITED STATES: President Bush appoints State Department professional to Guyana ambassadorship

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President George W. Bush announced Friday that Roland Bullen is his choice to be the next U.S. ambassador to Guyana.

Bullen is deputy executive director of the State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs.

Previously, he served as deputy chief of mission in Bridgetown, Barbados, and served in U.S. embassies in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Belize, Costa Rica and Venezuela.

His new position must be confirmed by the Senate.

JAPAN: Cuban leader Fidel Castro arrives for three-day visit

TOKYO (AP) -- Cuban leader Fidel Castro arrived in Japan Saturday as torrential rains battered the capital and airports across the country attempted to recover from a massive computer failure earlier in the day.

Mounting tensions over moves by North Korea to restart its nuclear program were expected to be the focus of Castro's talks Sunday with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

The United States and its allies, as well as regional powers China and Russia, have been pressuring North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Cuba -- one of the North's few remaining communist allies -- could provide an additional conduit of diplomacy.

A sea of umbrellas met the 76-year-old Cuban leader, who arrived on schedule at Tokyo's Haneda Airport despite the bad weather.

Castro, the world's longest-serving communist leader, is in Japan for a three-day visit -- his first in seven years -- that includes meetings with Koizumi and Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi.

JAMAICA: Fisherman finds missing man drowned

MONTEGO BAY, Jamaica (AP) -- A fisherman harvesting his fish pot found the body of a man who went missing while he and a friend were cutting wood near a river in northern Jamaica, police said Friday.

Dondeen Johnson, 21, disappeared Tuesday, leaving his pants and a pair of slippers behind at a riverbank in a rural district called Rice Piece, police spokeswoman Angella Williams said.

His friend had crossed the Black River to cut wood, leaving Johnson on the other side, Williams said. When the friend returned, Johnson was gone, she said.

"The fisherman found his body floating beside his fish pot" on Thursday night, Williams said.

Police suspect Johnson had gone swimming in the river and drowned. An autopsy was scheduled for this week, Williams said.

UNITED STATES: Migrant boat arrivals in Key West raise security concerns

KEY WEST, Florida (AP) -- Six Cuban migrants landed their homemade boat on guarded U.S. Navy property this week, then wandered this city's downtown streets before authorities caught them, officials said.

After beaching the boat Wednesday, they sprinted past the house of the Navy's top officer in the Keys and scaled a fence, U.S. officials said Friday. Police later found them drinking beer and phoning relatives on a busy street.

Naval authorities were alerted to the boat by an off-duty Navy police officer, said Cmdr. Pete Fyles, executive officer of Key West Naval Air Facility. The officer was fishing on another vessel when he saw the boat head toward Navy property.

Cameron Hintzen, a U.S. Border Patrol spokesman, said the Cubans claimed they had departed from Mariel on Cuba's north coast less than a day before their arrival in Key West.

The migrants' names have not been released. Border Patrol and Navy officials did not return phone messages Saturday seeking further comment.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Congressman charged with illegal migrant trafficking released a second time

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (AP) -- Dominican authorities for a second time released a congressman charged with trafficking migrants illegally while working as a consul in Haiti, the head of state prisons said Saturday.

Radhames Ramos Garcia was released from prison Friday night after regaining his congressional immunity with the beginning of a new 90-day legislative session Thursday, said Miguel Mateo Lopez, director of national prisons.

The Attorney General's office was not available for comment.

Garcia was first detained in July on suspicion of smuggling 14 Chinese citizens, one Malaysian and one Singaporean into the Dominican Republic from neighboring Haiti.

He was released in September, when the Supreme Court ruled that, as a member of the House of Representatives, Garcia was immune to prosecution.

Garcia turned himself in on Feb. 16, just minutes before his immunity expired after a special congressional session ended.

GRENADA: Government plans new biotech laboratory

ST. GEORGE'S, Grenada (AP) -- The government is planning a new biotechnology lab to promote Grenada's agricultural self-sufficiency and diversification, the prime minister said Saturday.

The new lab at Maran, in the western parish of St. John, will both produce new plants and offer courses in biotechnology for member countries of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, Prime Minister Keith Mitchell said.

The lab, which will cost the government Eastern Caribbean $4 million (US$1.5 million), will produce about 4 million small plants a year, of which 500,000 will be sold locally, Mitchell said in a statement.

The plants to be grown include banana, pineapple, orchids, plantain, forest trees, root crops and spices, he said.

"Masters courses in collaboration with the St. George's University and the Florida University will also be available," the prime minister said.

TRINIDAD: Caribbean musician Andre Tanker dies of heart attack

PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad (AP) -- Andre Tanker, a well-known Caribbean musician who scored plays and forged his own brand of world music, has died after suffering a heart attack, his wife said Saturday. He was 61.

Tanker collapsed at his home outside the capital, Port-of-Spain, on Friday night, said Christine Bailey-Tanker. Family members took him to a hospital, where he was pronounced dead.

Music "was his life," his wife said.

"Sometimes he would be in the bed and all of a sudden I would hear his foot shaking because he was working out some kind of rhythm in his head," Bailey-Tanker said. "Then he would write it down in a book and come back to it later."

Tanker is credited with being one of the first musicians to fuse steel drum music with conventional instruments. He drew on influences from celebrated calypso musicians, such as the legendary Lord Kitchener, and expanded upon the style.

Tanker, who was born in Trinidad, played a variety of instruments, including guitar, cuatro, flute and vibraphone. His latest band was named One World Contraband, which three years ago appeared on Black Entertainment Television.

SOCCER: Ban lifted on 19 Trinidad soccer players

PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad (AP) -- Soccer officials have lifted a ban on 19 national players, clearing them to train next week for the team's final round of Gold Cup qualifiers, an official said.

The federation suspended the players in January after they walked out on national team training two days before their match with Finland. A reserve team played the game and lost 2-1.

The 19 players were protesting poor work conditions, which they said included nonpayment of match fees and inadequate training amenities including water and medical kits.

The federation lifted the ban on Friday, after a special committee met with the players and submitted a list of recommendations for improving conditions, according to Richard Gruden, secretary of the federation.

The players would resume training with their clubs on Thursday, and the federation will study the recommendations at its next executive committee meeting March 16, Gruden said.

SOCCER: FIFA to audit financial assistance program to Antigua Football Association

ST. JOHN'S, Antigua (AP) -- FIFA will conduct an independent audit of its 1999-2000 financial assistance program to the Antigua Football Association, officials said.

The audit was requested by Antigua's soccer association after some members accused its president, Ralph Potter, and general secretary, Chet Greene, of not accounting for all program expenditures.

"I have not been involved in any improprieties whatsoever," Potter said Friday. Greene also has said he is innocent of the accusations.

In January, FIFA vice president Jack Warner said he would ask FIFA to suspend funding to several regional associations because he said they were not using the money wisely.

Auditors will contact the Antigua association "directly in the next few days to arrange a date and discuss other details," FIFA general-secretary Urs Linsi said in a Feb. 12 letter.

The 1999-2000 program involved Eastern Caribbean $2.7 million (US$1 million) in funds for technical development and administration.

CRICKET: Barbados straps wayward Trinidad bowling

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (AP) -- Consistent batting down the order put front-runners Barbados in a commanding position over second-placed Trinidad and Tobago in their top-of-the-table fifth-round match of the Carib Beer match Saturday.

Replying to Trinidad's modest first-innings total of 147, Barbados declared at 502 for nine about 1 1/2 hours after tea on the second day at Kensington Oval. Opening batsmen Philo Wallace and Sherwin Campbell completed centuries and shared a record-breaking, double-hundred, first-wicket stand.

Dwayne Bravo was the leading bowler for Trinidad, with five wickets for 95 runs from 16 overs. Marlon Black offered him support with two wickets for 116 runs from 21 overs.

In 19 overs before stumps were drawn, Trinidad reached 47 for one with left-hander Andy Jackson not out on 16 and Dwayne Bravo undefeated on 25. The wicket to fall was Imran Jan, who was adjudged lbw for one to left-arm fast-medium bowler Ian Bradshaw.

CRICKET: Jamaica holds upper hand against Guyana

GEORGETOWN, Guyana (AP) -- Jamaica held the upper hand against Guyana on Saturday in their fifth-round Carib Beer cricket match, with the home team on 70 for two replying to Jamaica's 387 all out.

Resuming on 236 for four, Jamaica experienced a minor low-order collapse, losing four wickets for seven runs just when it looked like it was piling on a huge total.

But Guyana turned to part-time leg spinner Sewnarine Chattergoon, more known for his exploits as an opening batsman, to break the back of the Jamaicans, restricting them to 387 all out. He took four wickets for nine runs from 6.4 overs, rescuing his side on the flat pitch.

He was supported by discarded West Indies Test spinner Mahendra Nagamootoo, who grabbed three for 138 from 58 marathon overs that included 17 maidens.

So far in the match Jamaica had 387 all out and Guyana had 70-2.

CRICKET: Leewards 233 to West Indies 'B's 125

SALEM, Montserrat (AP) -- Play started 30 minutes early Saturday in an effort to make up for lost time on the previous day, with a maximum of 105 overs to be bowled.

The Leeward Islands, continuing from their overnight position of four without loss, quickly raced to 50.

Sylvester Joseph started to accelerate the scoring and was very quickly within sight of his century but was caught by Lorenzo Ingram on the long-off boundary. When Joseph departed the Leeward Islands total was 213.

The rest of the Leewards batsmen provided little resistance as the remaining three wickets fell for 20 runs.

The Windies, having conceded first innings to the Leeward Islands by 42 runs, set out to erase that deficit in four overs and chase the Leewards in the fourth innings.

The Windies ended the days play 83 runs ahead in their second innings.

CRICKET: India 'A' in danger of being asked to follow-on against Windwards

CASTRIES, St. Lucia (AP) -- India "A" was in danger of being asked to follow-on against the Windward Islands at close of play on the second day of their four-day Carib Beer match Saturday.

The Indians, needing 190 to avoid the follow on, were out for 183 just before the close of play after the Windward Islands had taken its overnight first-innings score to 339.

It is now left to be seen whether Windwards skipper Rawl Lewis will ask India to bat again when play resumes Sunday, with the Windwards big first-innings lead of 156.

An inspired bowling change by Lewis may have been chiefly responsible for India's predicament when it occupied the crease. With the score 170 for five, Lewis introduced part time bowler Kenroy Martin into the attack. The medium pacer bowler promptly responded by claiming three quick wickets in three overs to send the Indians crashing to 175 for eight.