All you wanted to know about the referendum ... but were afraid to ask

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, June 16, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: The referendum slated for this year and which, if held, should decide whether our current President stays or goes, is contemplated in Article 72 of the Venezuelan Constitution. This article allows for any elected officer to be subject to a referendum at the midpoint of his/her term in office provided that no less than 20% of the voters request that such a referendum be held. The mandate will be revoked if a number of votes greater than that received originally by the officer are obtained, and the voting includes more than 25% of eligible voters.

If these conditions are met, the mandate of the elected officer will be revoked and the law demands that the replacement of such an absolute absence be replaced at once.

In the case of our President, his term will be at midpoint in August 19, 2003, as determined by a sentence of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ).  To fulfill the number of voters requesting the referendum requires that 20% of ±12.5 million registered voters ask for it ... this is, 2.5 million signatures. To be valid, the referendum must have the participation of at least 25% of eligible voters ... 3,125,000 voters. The mandate will be revoked if more than 3,357,773 voters so decide, this being the amount of votes that the current President received at his election in July 2000.

The percentage of voters abstaining during Presidential elections since 1999 has been very high ... in the order of 49%.  I.e. only 51% of eligible voters have cast their ballots. If this trend is maintained for the referendum, and even if 59% of voters decide against the President staying, his mandate would not be revoked since the absolute number of votes would be less than what he obtained in July 2000. This means the opposition to the President must make sure that abstention is very low, that most voters actually vote.  It explains the emphasis being given, at this point in time, to the organization of civic groups to guarantee that no one fails to go and vote.

The road to the referendum is plagued with obstacles, some legal, some bureaucratic, some of a more dubious nature. Among them:

1. Are the signatures already collected in 'El Firmazo' valid or not? The Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) has not yet said a word. The current Electoral College (CNE) says they are.

2. The Electoral College must be to reappointed. The National Assembly (AN), in charge of selecting its new members, is in shambles. The government block no longer has the majority it once had. From an original 115 members the government block is down to 83, but even then, one or two more of its members are not so sure any more. This has produced a deadlock in the Assembly and the Electoral College members have not been selected. This task will probably have to be made by the TSJ as last instance ... which is highly abnormal.

3. Some high government officers claim that the Electoral College should have 6 months to be "reorganized."  This would delay the referendum considerably.

4. The Minister of Infrastructure (MINFRA), Diosdado Cabello claims without giving much explanation on the basis for his argument, that there will not be a referendum and Vice President Rangel says that the recent agreement signed under the eyes of international observers, has nothing to do with the referendum ... although this was the main reason to sign it.

5. President Chavez has gone on record saying that he does not believe there will be any referendum.

6. Many opposition members feel that the government has no real intention to "allow" a referendum.

Against this background, filled with uncertainty, most Venezuelans are looking to the referendum as the only hope of solving the Venezuelan crisis in a non-violent fashion.

• But the level of frustration increases as they see that the days go by and many organizations procrastinate in tasks they must complete to make it possible.

The President (quite rightly), says: "I am not interested in the referendum ... I will not move a finger to make it possible."  This is logical as one can not expected him to promote a referendum that might result in his removal from the Presidency. But, there is a distinction between not promoting a revocatory referendum and quite another to put obstacles in its way. Not to move a finger to make it happen is understandable, and valid. To move to make it impossible is something else ... which might well be classified as obstruction of the Constitution itself.

This is where we seem to be at this point in time.

The referendum hangs in the balance ... a very delicate balance between Constitutional action and Constitutional violation ... we will need all possible help to make the revocatory referendum happen within the boundaries stipulated in the Venezuelan Law.

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.   You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email gustavo@vheadline.com