Oil Prices Surge Above $32 a Barrel

Posted on Wed, Jun. 11, 2003 BRAD FOSS Associated Press

Oil prices surged above $32 a barrel for the first time since mid-March on Wednesday, as traders fretted about scant supplies, the rising price of natural gas and a signal from OPEC that production cuts might be on the horizon.

The weak dollar is also making it more expensive to buy oil, analysts said.

Crude for July delivery finished up 63 cents to $32.36 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Wednesday.

The last time Nymex oil futures closed higher than $32 a barrel was March 17, a few days before the start of the war in Iraq.

Prices then fell sharply after U.S.-led forces quickly secured Iraq's most abundant oil fields and analysts speculated that the country's supply would make up for lost production elsewhere.

As the military conflict wound down, crude futures dropped as low as $25.24 on April 29. But prices have risen steadily since then as it became clear that Iraq's oil industry was in bad shape and that the country's crude would not flood the global market anytime soon.

"The market is starting to wake up to the fact that while Iraq is going to be a big deal down the road, near-term it isn't going to be much" of a contributor to world supplies, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. Iraq, which pumped around 2.1 million barrels a day before the war, is now producing below 1 million barrels a day.

On the domestic front, the Energy Department reported Wednesday that commercial inventories of crude fell last week by 4.6 million barrels to 284.4 million barrels, or 12 percent below year ago levels.

Refiners are drawing down crude inventories in order to meet the nation's gasoline needs at the start of the busy summer driving season. Supplies were already low because of a two-month strike that paralyzed oil production in Venezuela, the world's fifth largest petroleum exporter.

Flynn also cited the rising price of natural gas, a problem that was highlighted before Congress on Tuesday by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. Greenspan warned that high natural gas prices could be a drag on the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

With natural gas futures trading higher than $6 per 1,000 cubic feet, or roughly double what they were a year ago, manufacturers are choosing to run their plants on crude-derived fuels instead of natural gas and that, too, is driving the price of oil higher.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries offered little relief to the market on Wednesday, when ministers meeting in Doha, Qatar, decided to keep production levels steady through July. The oil cartel left open the possibility of a production cut at its next meeting on July 31.

Fahnestock & Co. oil analyst Fadel Gheit said that while OPEC ministers publicly expressed fears about the potential for an oil glut once Iraqi production reaches pre-war levels, privately they are "laughing all the way to the bank."

Still, he said speculation by U.S. traders is driving prices higher more than anything else. "It's not because there is a physical shortage," he said. "It's all psychology."

In other Nymex trading, July gasoline futures ended 1.7 cent higher at 93.41 cents per gallon and heating oil futures were basically unchanged at 79.10 cents per gallon. Natural gas for July delivery closed at $6.214 per 1,000 cubic feet.

On London's International Petroleum Exchange, Brent crude from the North Sea finished 31 cents higher at $28.39 per barrel.