Venezuelans have a constitutional right to boot their President out of office

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, June 09, 2003 By: Juan C. Nagel

VHeadline.com guest commentarist Juan C. Nagel writes: Wait until August. Be patient. For more than a year, the Venezuelan opposition has been hearing this self-righteous nonsense from President Hugo Chavez and from elements of the foreign media charmed by his revolutionary rhetoric and horrified at the opposition's haste in calling for the resignation of a "democratically-elected" leader. After all, the Venezuelan Constitution allows for a Recall Referendum on the President to take place after the mid-point of his or her term (in Mr. Chavez' case, August 19). All the opposition needs to do is collect the signatures and make sure more people vote to recall Chavez than those that put him in power in the first place.

Simple, right?

Not quite. The opposition has agreed to go down this route, only to see a myriad of booby traps in the road ahead. These tricks (to paraphrase Jimmy Carter) make it very difficult for the referendum to take place under fair conditions. First of all, the Chavez government decided that the current Electoral Council was no good, so no elections could be held. Fine, they weren't geniuses, but they were good enough for Chavez when he named them in his typical, autocratic fashion. The opposition agreed to help name a new electoral body that everyone can trust, and who is the main chavista candidate? The only member of the current disqualified Electoral Council who still votes with Chavez. Congress is now indefinitely deadlocked on the election of a new electoral body.

Next up are the signatures.

The opposition, in a remarkable show of force, organized a petition drive that compiled more signatures than those needed to petition the referendum to take place. Now the government is saying these signatures are false, are insufficient, were collected extemporarily, and were cloned. Never mind that no one in the government has seen them; never mind that the Constitution does not limit the periods during which one can collect signatures; never mind that a respected NGO is guarding, counting and verifying the signatures. The new "thug-with-oil" has decided they are no good.

Other tricks include the government's failure to provide funds needed to hold the referendum, the use of government moneys for campaigning, and whether Chavez can participate in an election that will follow once his mandate is recalled (the Constitutional Court, under Chavez' control, will surely say he can). However, one of the most appalling ones is the strategy announced by this great democrat and his party: that they will actively campaign for their followers to abstain from voting.

The desired effect of this is clear. If the only people going to vote are opposed to Mr. Chavez, people in poorer districts, where the rule of law is a mirage and armed, pro-government gangs (modeled on Saddam Hussein's fedayeen) roam unchallenged, will be too scared to go vote. If turnout is low, the opposition will lose the referendum.

The picture this paints is a clear one: it is nearly impossible for a majority of Venezuelans to exercise their constitutional right to choose their own leader, and to do so in a safe and fair environment. Institutions are practically non-existent, and the government ... with its enormous oil wealth and its legal and illegal weaponry ... is bent on intimidating and breaking the opposition using any means necessary. The international community can help keep the government in check, but so far they have achieved next to nothing, in spite of the moral obligation they have towards a country that supported the region's democratic struggles when it was under military rule.

These "tricks" are not democratic.

It is shameful for a political party that exercises power thanks to the will of the people to make those same voters afraid to go cast their vote now that the tides have clearly turned against them. Chavez' tricks are preventing Venezuelans from exercising their constitutional rights. Venezuelans and the international community cannot stand for these shenanigans. Chavez is clearly in Mugabe territory now, which shouldn't be surprising. After all, Mugabe is still in power, so his tricks are worth a try.

Juan C Nagel is an economist with a degree from UCAB, and a Ph.D. Candidate in Economics at the University of Michigan. He is also a Senior Economist at ApplEcon, LLC, a small economics consulting firm based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.  You may email him at jnagel@umich.edu