Venezuela: Smoldering Volcano, New Round in Venezuelan Fight

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Maracaibo, Venezuela - Six months after Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez turned back nationwide strikes and protests against his rule, his opponents are organizing a new effort to oust him - this time via the ballot box. This country of 25 million people has seen some of Latin America's nastiest politics in recent years as Chavez's leftist policies and pugnacious style have helped divide the country between those who love him and those who would love to see him gone. Starting in December, Chavez's opponents held a nine-week strike that shut down oil exports and the economy, but failed to dislodge Chavez from power. Last year, a coup by military and business leaders ousted Chavez for two days in April before collapsing. Those crises, and periodic street clashes between supporters of the two sides, have raised worries that this country, one of the United States' top four oil suppliers, could slide into civil war. Last month, the Organization of American States, backed by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, guided the government and opposition into signing an agreement to fight for power according to the constitution. That allows the opposition to petition for a referendum on a president's mandate after the halfway point of his term, which for Chavez will be Aug. 19. Thus, the opposition, which appeared dispirited after the failure to oust Chavez last winter, is finding new energy. "All of our efforts are for the referendum," said Nerio Romero, regional secretary in Maracaibo for Democratic Action, one of the country's two traditionally dominant parties. Still, the May 29 accord does not guarantee that a referendum will be held, or that Venezuelan politics will be made more polite. The accord is "encouraging," said Michael Shifter, a senior analyst with a Washington-based think tank, the Inter-American Dialogue. Still, "a lot of things need to be worked out," he said. "Will the opposition be unified? Will there be enough international pressure? Will Chavez work in good faith?" Under the accord, the opposition will have to present 2.5 million petition signatures to force a referendum, and the government is barred from altering the ground rules for such a vote. The government and opposition are arguing over the appointment of a National Electoral Commission, which would set the date and the rules for a referendum. The legislature, where Chavez supporters hold a slim majority, has nominated two Chavez backers and two opponents to the five-member commission, but is deadlocked over the crucial final seat. The opposition accuses the government of trying to pack the supreme court and to render the legislature a rubber stamp. On Wednesday, legislators threw papers, shoved and screamed at each other in the National Assembly over government plans to change its operating rules to eliminate some quorum requirements. Venezuela was for generations one of Latin America's stablest democracies, but one in which the vast majority of people live in miserable poverty alongside the wealth of a tiny elite. Chavez, a former paratrooper who attempted a coup in 1992, won a landslide vote six years later with his promise to reduce inequalities with a populist revolution. In office, Chavez has alienated many with incendiary rhetoric and authoritarian tendencies. The opposition coalition - including unions, business groups and media companies - says Chavez has alienated foreign investors and seeks to impose a Cuban-style communism. Chavez denies this. "It looks like [the opposition] is beginning to accept that to get rid of me they'll have to work hard in the streets and follow the constitution," said Chavez, after the OAS-brokered agreement was reached. The new round of Venezuela's political battle will be fought amid the shambles of a weakened economy. The gross domestic product fell 8 percent last year - and 29 percent in this year's first quarter as a result of the December-to-February strike. Unemployment is around 25 percent and the currency, the bolivar, has plunged, sharply escalated the price of imports and thus the cost of living. "There's no money," lamented Franyi Rivas, 28, who sells women's clothing from a stand in a Maracaibo street market. He estimated that his sales have dropped 80 percent from a year ago. Rivas blamed the economy's troubles on the anti-Chavez opposition "for not letting the government work." Chavez consolidated his grip on many national institutions after the coup and strike, firing dissidents and replacing them with his loyalists. But his popularity has stayed low - at 36 percent, according to a prominent polling firm, Datanalisis. "If the opposition motivates the people to vote, they'll beat Chavez," said Luis Vicente Leon, Datanalisis' director. "The [opposition] advantage exists, but it isn't much." Leon said he expects Chavez to use legal mechanisms to delay any referendum and to promote abstention to undermine any vote that is held. Even if Chavez's mandate were revoked in a referendum, the Constitution does not bar him from running in the elections to follow. So unless the fractured opposition manages to rally around a single candidate, Chavez could win re-election with a plurality of the vote.