U.S. sees OPEC oil revenues up 19 pct in 2003

Reuters, 06.06.03, 4:32 PM ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rising world oil prices will boost OPEC's crude revenues for this year by 19 percent from last year, the U.S. government said on Friday.

The new forecast from the Energy Information Administration estimates OPEC will ring up $223 billion this year from oil exports, compared to $187 billion last year.

The Energy Department's analytical arm said the rise in OPEC's revenues is due in large part to an 11 percent rise in oil prices from last year.

Several factors have pushed prices higher: strong U.S. oil demand during a colder-than-normal winter, the disruption in Venezuela's oil exports from a workers strike, low U.S. oil inventories and the cutoff in Iraq's oil exports from the U.S.-led attack on that country.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, will account for the largest share of OPEC revenues at $70 billion, followed by Iran and the United Arab Emirates each bringing in $23.1 billion from oil exports.

The downside to higher oil revenues is that OPEC members will have a harder time implementing needed economic reforms, according to EIA.

"There is little doubt that pressures to make difficult political choices (like cutting popular state subsidies for food and fuel) tend to be lower during relatively prosperous times than in more difficult ones," the agency said.

The following table shows the EIA's projections for OPEC oil export revenues:

        OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUE

         (billions of dollars)

COUNTRY 2002 2003 PCT CHANGE Algeria 12.6 17.3 38 Indonesia 2.9 2.4 -17 Iran 18.7 23.1 23 Iraq 12.4 10.6 -15 Kuwait 11.6 15.4 32 Libya 10.8 12.9 20 Nigeria 17.1 20.4 19 Qatar 7.1 8.4 19 Saudi Arabia 55.0 70.0 27 UAE 18.7 23.1 24 Venezuela 19.7 19.3 -2 Total OPEC $186.6 $222.9 19