DIPLOMATIC DISPATCHES: Looking Beyond a Venezuelan Referendum

By Nora Boustany, <a href=www.washingtonpost.com>The Washington Post Wednesday, June 4, 2003; Page A22

Cesar Gaviria, the secretary general of the Organization of American States, told Washington Post reporters and editors yesterday that while opposition leaders in Venezuela have been "very cohesive" while negotiating for a referendum on President Hugo Chavez's rule, they may not find it as easy if they eventually have to select a candidate for a fresh presidential election.

Under an agreement signed last week, if enough signatures are presented to Venezuela's National Electoral Council by Aug. 19 -- the midway point of Chavez's current term -- the council will have 90 days to organize and call a referendum. If Chavez is voted out of office, which appears likely, a new election would be held. And that, said Gaviria, is when the opposition's job gets tougher.

"They have so much at risk," noted Gaviria, who has just returned from Venezuela, where he helped mediate negotiations that led to the referendum agreement. Political violence between the opposition and supporters of the left-wing Chavez has claimed at least 50 lives over the last 14 months, and a two-month general strike ravaged the Venezuelan economy.

Because tensions remain high, Gaviria said, freedom of expression must be ensured and the economic situation stabilized before the referendum if Venezuela is to avoid unrest.

Venezuela is not the only crisis challenging South America, Gaviria said. Economic upheavals have staggered Brazil and Argentina, and in the latter case, Gaviria emphasized, the United States must step in.

"The U.S. can do something to improve economic performance in Latin America. We don't even have an agenda anymore," Gaviria said. "There is something that is wrong structurally. It is not enough to say they don't know how to do things in Latin America. If you had handled the situation better, [Argentina] would have done a lot better.

"Leadership is needed. We need more resources, a strong World Bank presence, a strong Inter-American Development Bank and a lot more help from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF could have helped and it didn't."

Tango on Embassy Row

Now that Argentina has elected a new president, Argentine Ambassador Eduardo Amadeo, who arrived in Washington on Dec. 25, will be leaving on Tuesday, his office confirmed.

President Nestor Kirchner has asked the Argentine Senate to approve Jose Octavia Bordon, a former presidential candidate, congressman, senator and provincial governor from Mendoza, as his new ambassador. Bordon is also a scholar who is not a stranger to Washington think tanks, such as the Woodrow Wilson Center, and has lectured at Georgetown University.