Venezuela Govt., Wary Foes Sign Pact to End Battles

Thu May 29, 2003 01:55 PM ET By Pascal Fletcher

CARACAS, Venezuela (<a href=asia.reuters.com>Reuters) - Venezuela's government and opposition signed a pact on Thursday seeking to end their political conflict and smooth the way to a referendum on Hugo Chavez's presidency, but the road to a vote seemed cluttered with hurdles.

The accord recommended holding a referendum after Aug. 19 as the best way to end a crisis in the world's No. 5 oil exporter, where followers and foes of left-winger Chavez have been locked in bitter confrontation.

"This is a good agreement for all Venezuelans," said Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria, who had spent more than six months coaxing the two sides into talking, often while violent clashes raged in the streets.

At least 50 people have been killed in political violence over the last 14 months. And a crippling opposition strike in December and January left behind a recession that could lead to still worse tensions.

Gaviria signed the pact in a Caracas hotel along with government and opposition representatives.

Although Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel signed on behalf of Chavez's government and praised the agreement, the document set no poll date and opposition leaders were skeptical that the populist president would submit to the referendum.

Under Venezuela's constitution, the opposition can call a referendum on Chavez's mandate after Aug. 19 -- halfway through his term -- only if they collect the signatures of at least 20 percent of voters.

But several important procedural steps need to be taken before the referendum can go ahead.

Opposition leaders fear that former paratrooper Chavez, who was elected in 1998, six years after failing to seize power in a botched coup, may still try to wriggle out of a referendum.

"This a president who permanently fails to keep his word," said Felipe Mujica of the Movement Toward Socialism party.

"LONG ROAD HEAD"

Opponents accuse Chavez of taking near-dictatorial powers after gaining political control of institutions like the National Assembly. They say he is trying to install Cuba-style communism in Venezuela.

Analysts said that while the accord, which commits both sides to avoiding violence, may help to ease tensions, it does not automatically guarantee a referendum.

"It's a small starting point ... but there's still a long road ahead ... There are a number of hurdles that need to be addressed and that could delay the process," Jose Cerritelli, an economist with Bear Stearns in New York, told Reuters.

The National Assembly, where Chavez supporters hold a slim majority, must first appoint a new National Electoral Council to set a poll date and verify the signatures collected. This could involve intense political infighting.

Chavez, who survived a coup last year, has also called for a check of the electoral register, which he says is full of errors.

Critics say these requirements could give him a chance to try to block the poll through legal maneuvers.

"But if Chavez tries to stall, he at least gets kicked in the teeth by international opinion," said Robert Bottome of Caracas-based VenEconomy consultants.