Terrorist threat to energy infrastructure increases
Al-Qaeda's stated aim of focusing operations on hard economic targets allied to a rise in incidents of energy terrorism in regions where there has been a growth in Islamist groups indicates that the risk of attacks on energy sector infrastructure has increased significantly in recent months.
In February 2003 the internet site arabforum.net - allegedly popular among Al-Qaeda supporters - published a call to the mujahideen of all Arab and Muslim countries in which the West has military bases or are involved in the energy industry to rise against these interests in the name of the Muslim Ummah.
In light of the recent attacks on the petroleum supply chain, such as the bombing of the French-flagged supertanker Limburg off the coast of Yemen in October 2002, and the rising vulnerability of Saudi Arabia to acts of terrorism - as illustrated by the Riyadh bombings on 12 May - it appears that this call to target the oil industry is more than mere rhetoric.
Given rising global, and particularly Western, dependence on oil and natural gas resources, such a trend could bring significant economic disruption. With European and US dependence on oil imports likely to grow to more than 70% and 60% by 2010 and 2020 respectively, the security of African and Middle Eastern reserves will become increasingly important, but the very knowledge of Western dependence on these reserves makes attacks more likely. Even alternative sources currently under development, such as those in the Caspian Sea, have proven vulnerable to terrorism.
Characteristics of energy terrorism
The oil and gas industry is not a new target for terrorists. On the contrary, terrorist groups have always been aware of the economic and political benefits of attacking these strategic resources. In addition to contributing to economic instability, the energy industry has been targeted as a symbol of resistance to national governments, and as a means of placing pressure on foreign powers and multinational corporations with a strategic interest in oil and gas producing regions. Furthermore, terrorist groups have commonly targeted oil and gas pipelines as a source of financing; or as a way to increase their own influence among communities they seek to control.
Although energy terrorism does not elicit the same level of attention as the spectre of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear terrorism, the economic implications of this terrorist strategy are potentially enormous. With a plethora of targets, including depots, gas stations, personnel, pipelines, production plants, tankers, terminals and refineries, the energy infrastructure is intrinsically vulnerable, and the knock-on effects of disruptions in production or distribution can have severe and immediate effects on economies, as was seen in the blockade of petroleum distribution in the UK in 2001 and during the strike in Venezuela at the end of 2002.
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