Duplication, illegibility and signatures not on the eligible voters list
<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Thursday, May 08, 2003 By: Oscar Heck
VHeadline.com commentarist Oscar Heck writes: What will the results of a referendum (asking for Chavez to leave office) be?
Apparently, such a referendum can be held sometime in August 2003 or later. But first, a petition requesting a referendum must legally collect a certain number of signatures under the vigilance of the CNE (National Electoral College).
In February 2003, according to reports, the number of petition signatures needed to activate such a referendum was 2,393,248 … 20% of the eligible voting population of almost 12 million.
As per some reports, the “Firmazo”, a campaign to collect signatures (without the supervision of the CNE) in February 2003, collected 3,236,320 signatures. This figure was revised and in May 2003 the number of signatures was reported to be 2,789,385 … 446,935 signatures less! (14% error)
The reasons: duplication, illegibility and signatures from people who were not on the eligible voters list.
Now, if in the next weeks, the people opposing Chavez collect (legally and under CNE supervision) the same amount of signatures, that is, 2,789,385, then the CNE can proceed to organize the referendum asking for Chavez to resign from his mandate as President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.
2,789,385 signatures represent 23.24% of total eligible voters. It also represents approximately 46% of the number of people that voted at the last election (somewhere near 6 million).
(In February 2003, the opposition was declaring that 80% of Venezuelans wanted Chavez out! They even propagated this information world-wide to the extent that most people outside Venezuela believed them. Where they got the figure of 80% is still a mystery).
According to what I witnessed in Venezuela during the “Firmazo”, I estimate voter show-up for the “Firmazo” event to have been about 80%. The same people who signed that petition would be the same people signing a new petition … and would also be the same people voting against Chavez if an election were to take place.
If the 2,789,385 signatures represent 80% of the anti-Chavez voters, this means that there would be 3,486,731 anti-Chavez votes at the most.
This number represents 58% of 6 million (approximate number of people who voted in last election) and only 29% of the total eligible voters population.
The 58% quoted in the last sentence is probably not accurate because it is very probable that more than 6 million people would vote.
Supposing that 9.6 million people vote (80% voter turn-out), then the figure of 3,486,731 represents only 36% of the total votes.
It appears that the referendum will take place, at least based on the number of signatures collected during “El Firmazo.” If the referendum does take place, I do not see how the opposition can win the referendum (50%+1 of the total votes). As much as anti-Chavez people would go to the polls, so would pro-Chavez people, that is, if the opposition doesn’t sabotage the process somehow (I would not exclude the possibility, based on what the opposition has been capable of doing over the last year!)
My estimate is that at the most, the anti-Chavez camp would accumulate between 42-47% of the total votes, thus losing the referendum … and Chavez would remain in power. (I get 47% by taking the average between 58% and 36%)
Another way to look at it is the following:
- Approximately 65% (a conservative figure) of the Venezuelan population live in “barrios” (slums) or similar conditions. Of these people, my estimate is that about 65% are pro-Chavez, resulting in 42.25% of the population.
- Approximately 30% are from lower-middle to upper-middle classes and my estimate is that about 15% of these are pro-Chavez, resulting in 4.5% of the total population.
- Approximately 5% are from the “elite” classes and in my estimate, a negligible amount of these are pro-Chavez.
By adding the results from 1, 2 and 3 above, one gets a total of 46.75% of the population being pro-Chavez. This means that 53.25 % of the population is either anti-Chavez or neutral. If 80% of the 53.25% are anti-Chavez, then we get a total of 42.6 % anti-Chavez people … which is not enough to win a referendum.
Likewise, if there were elections, it would be extremely difficult for the anti-Chavez campaign to win an election.
Oscar Heck Oscar@vheadline.com