UN body pegs LatAm 2003 economic growth near 2 pct

Reuters, 04.28.03, 1:59 PM ET

SANTIAGO, Chile, April 28 (Reuters) - A U.N. body predicted on Monday that Latin America and the Caribbean would leave behind its economic woes to grow near 2 percent in 2003 but warned that global uncertainty could jeopardize that recovery. The end of Argentina's grueling recession, stronger foreign trade and better access to financing should all support moderate growth, following a 0.6 percent contraction last year, the Santiago-based U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean said in a report. ECLAC conservatively said growth might fall within a range of 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent, listing the threats as oil price volatility, poor demand in the region's top trade partners, the conflict in Iraq and political turmoil in Venezuela. Earlier this month, ECLAC's chief economist Jose Antonio Ocampo informally ventured the same growth predictions, which have now been made official. Argentina, where presidential candidates are wooing investors ahead of a second round vote on May 18, is expected to surge ahead of the rest of the region, along with Peru, to show economic expansion of 4 percent, ECLAC said. Brazil, the region's largest economy, should grow by 1.8 percent this year, Mexico by 2.4 percent and Chile by 3.5 percent. But Venezuela, mired in a political crisis after a two-month opposition strike, should drag down the regional average, with its economy shrinking 10 percent this year, ECLAC estimated. The expected LatAm growth is still too weak to cut overall poverty rates, according to the organization, which said per capita GDP has declined in half the region over the past five years. "The expected regional GDP growth of close to 2 percent for 2003 will allow a slightly positive per capita growth, though it's too modest to expect an improvement in the region's social situation," ECLAC said.