<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Wednesday, April 23, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Analyst Romero forecasts Chavez Frias will opt for radical line over elections

Opposition analyst, Anibal Romero says President Chavez Frias has but two options open to him ... "while it is true that the opposition is facing a difficult period so is the government and it has limited options." 

The first option is to go for elections. 

Opposition Romero says he is convinced that President Chavez Frias will lose, even with several opposition contenders (unless he resorts to fraud). 

The economy of the vote, he claims, will ensure that the national will to be rid of Chavez Frias will prevail ... losing the referendum means defeat for the "Project." 

"It will be a serious upset for the radical left, as happened to the Sandinistas in Nicaragua and the idea to handover power freely is anathema to a group of people that have been pushing people around, committing abuses, crimes and other misdemeanors ... they won't be able to defend themselves form the courts and international tribunals after losing the elections." 

For the above reasons, Romero is of the opinion that the government will avoid elections like the plague and that Chavez Frias will embark on the only option left to him ... to radicalize the situation,  moving from a "soft" to "hard" authoritarianism, closing opposition media, rounding up and imprisoning opposition leaders and intellectuals, breaking with the Organization of American States (OAS) and Washington, and accelerating union with Fidel Castro and the Colombian guerrilla movement in an attempt to close the circle of absolute power. 

Taking a step backwards, Romero allows for the possibility that Chavez Frias will go for elections, if international and domestic pressure is applied and if the President realizes that his chances of "closing the circle" are slipping through his fingers. 

Romero says he thinks Chavez Frias will opt for the second option. 

"It will not last long and carry a high price ... his regime will lose international support and internal legitimacy ... Venezuelans will not allow society to be transformed into a second Cuba."

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