Oil Dips on Upbeat Iraqi Output Forecast

 Home > News > Business News > Article <a href=reuters.com>Reuters Sun April 13, 2003 11:14 PM ET

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices opened the week one percent down on Monday, weighing up the prospect of a return of Iraqi crude exports to the world market against possible supply curbs by the OPEC cartel to avert a potential price crash.

U.S. light crude fell 29 cents to $27.85 a barrel.

Renewed downward pressure on oil prices came after weekend comments by a senior U.S. engineer that Iraq's giant Kirkuk oilfields could start pumping within weeks.

The northern fields are capable of producing up to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraq's pre-war production of roughly 2.5 million bpd.

"It's a definite possibility that could be just a few weeks away," said Tom Logsdon, a senior member of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers charged with repairing Iraq's oilfields.

Logsdon said the southern oilfields, where output was up to 2.1 million bpd before the war began on March 20, could be up and running in less than three months.

"Depending how quickly workers come on line, we estimate we will have between 330,000 and 1,000,000 bpd being produced within 12 weeks from now," said Logsdon.

Oil prices fell about 10 percent after the start of the war as U.S. and British forces quickly secured a majority of Iraq's oil infrastructure in the south of the country and traders predicted a fairly swift end to hostilities.

But any resumption of vital crude exports will be up to an interim authority in Baghdad in conjunction with the United Nations, where some analysts forecast that diplomatic wrangling will keep Iraqi barrels off the market for many months to come.

VENEZUELA SUPPORTS OPEC CUT

Iraq's crude could hit world markets just as demand is expected to wane by up to two million bpd. The second quarter sees a seasonal slump between winter demand for heating and the peak consumption of gasoline during summer vacations.

Compounding the demand downturn, many commercial airlines have slashed routes due to the spread of the flu-like SARS virus around the globe.

At the same time, supplies from OPEC producers are running almost two million bpd above the group's self-imposed ceiling, to counter supply disruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning an emergency meeting later this month or in early May to discuss tightening compliance to current output quotas or even possible curbs to formal limits.

"Higher prices, slower economic growth, warmer weather in the northern hemisphere and lower jet travel due to the SARS outbreak have all depressed the demand for oil," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

"We expect that with oil prices heading lower, OPEC will try to be proactive in attempting to keep oil prices at, or above, $25 a barrel," Thurtell said in a research note.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Friday that South America's biggest oil producer was ready to back any proposed OPEC supply cut to support prices in the group's target band of $22 to $28 a barrel for OPEC's reference basket of seven crudes.

OPEC's basket price stood at $25.40 on Thursday, compared with a monthly average of $31.54 in February.

"If we have to cut production by one million bpd, or 1.5 million bpd, or 1.8 million bpd, we would be ready to cut," Chavez told a news conference.

An anti-Chavez strike in December and January slashed crude output in Venezuela, usually OPEC's third biggest producer, from 3.1 million bpd to just 40,000 bpd at its low point.

Officials at state oil firm PDVSA said at the weekend that production had recovered to pre-strike levels at about 3.05 million bpd for crude output and 150,000 bpd of condensate production.