Weekly Market Regional Comment, April 7, 2003

<a href=www.bnamericas.com>BNAMERICAS Report Type : Reports Published on: Monday, April 07, 2003 Provider : Capital Markets Argentina Author : Research Department Head Alejandro Quelch Email Author: aquelch@capitalmarkets.com.ar Language : English   Page Count : 10 Delivery Options Format PDF Price Free Download: getresearch (application/x-macbinary, 88 KB)

Argentina

Bonds rose amid speculation of a better economic scenario but election polls are far from showing a clear lead. The buyback of quasicurrencies was decreed and uses for BODEN 2012 have been regimented. Also, Q1 fiscal targets have been met, as expected.

US

Last week, market mood improved as the news flow from the war showed advances from coalition forces. The dollar regained ground by the end of the while economic data has proved highly discouraging. The labor market deteriorates and no upturn in business investment is clearly seen by now, so the concern over the possibility of a double dip might re-emerge as war fears ease.

Europe

The European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged at 2.50% in its meeting, however it is estimated that there will be at least a 25 basis points reduction in the near future. In fact, futures indicate a reduction at the end of the first semester.

Mexico

Mexican markets followed US markets on the uphill as well. Fiscal outlook remains solid, while the election outlook now favours the PRI.

Brazil

Brazil continues to rally on optimism over the reform agenda, moderating inflation, an appreciating currency and firm demand for external bonds. Last week the amendment that paves the way for Central Bank independence was voted, and this week could see its final vote.

Venezuela

The government is considering a voluntary external debt swap, and a team will soon travel to the US to gather support from institutional investors. Also, the Supreme Court is to rule on currency controls in the coming weeks. 

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