Venezuelan opposition seen ebbing

Source By T. Christian Miller, Los Angeles Times, 3/26/2003

CARACAS -- Henrique Salas says he is just trying to inject hope into a shattered economy and a divided society.

The second-place finisher in Venezuela's presidential election five years ago, Salas has saturated the television airwaves in recent days with a reminder that he predicted trouble ahead with the victory of President Hugo Chavez.

''Now it's time to look ahead. Lift your eye up to the skies,'' Salas says in a 30-second spot, staring into the camera and flashing a toothy grin.

The advertisement, which Salas insists is not a political ad, is the latest sign that Venezuela's opposition is crumbling in the wake of a failed two-month national strike to oust Chavez.

Salas has become the first major politician to openly distance himself from the Democratic Coordinating Committee, the uneasy coalition that has led the protests against Chavez for the last year.

The possibility of a recall vote and a new presidential election this year has divided the committee. Labor and business, new and traditional parties, and the leftists and conservatives who made up the opposition's once-united front are fighting for power.

The fracture has left the opposition with no clear strategy to confront Chavez, who seems politically stronger than ever after having survived a brief coup last April and then the strike, which cost the country $6 billion.

Street demonstrations have declined both in size and frequency. A petition drive to force out Chavez has gone nowhere. Strike leaders are on the run, seeking political asylum or facing trial on treason charges.

''The opposition is going through a difficult time,'' said a source close to talks. ''They are not going to exercise significant pressure on the government in the next few weeks.''

The failure of the strike and the coalition's problems have stalemated the peace talks. Meetings between the two sides, once held daily, are now taking place only occasionally.

The government has little reason to negotiate, now that the strike has failed, say those participating in the talks. Cesar Gaviria, the president of the Organization of American States and the talks' mediator, has privately told some diplomats that he thinks there will be no negotiated settlement.

''At the table, nothing is happening,'' the source said. ''The government has decided to do nothing. The most probable thing is there will be no accord but a recall vote by the end of the year.''

Even the news media, once Chavez's fiercest opponents, have toned down their rhetoric in the face of an aggressive counterattack by Chavez.

The president recently implemented currency controls that permit bolivars, the national currency, to be exchanged for dollars only for certain government-approved imports.

Chavez announced that he would not allow ''coup-plotters'' to have access to dollars, which led media owners to fear the measure would be used against them. In its first list, released earlier this month, the government did not allow currency exchanges for the purchase of newsprint. Already, one newspaper has warned that it will run out of newsprint by April.

Marcel Granier -- director of RCTV, one of the nation's most-watched television networks -- said he has been unable to pay foreign suppliers for new programming or videotape since the government put the currency exchange controls in place last month.

''In a fascist government, the media are targeted from day one,'' Granier said. ''He is the one who has mounted a media war.''

Members of the opposition accuse Chavez of attempting a social revolution that has driven the country further into poverty and political ruin. The president has refused to make any concessions, insisting that the only legal means to force him from power would be a midterm recall election that could take place as early as August.

Instead, he recently announced that this year will be ''the year of the offensive'' of his Bolivarian revolution, which seeks to improve the lives of the 80 percent of the population that lives in poverty.

He has promised to implement long-delayed plans for a redistribution of land to the poor. And he has begun a program in which the government uses air force planes and navy ships to import food at reduced costs to sell at ''popular markets'' for the poor.

In a speech to university students last week, Chavez claimed victory over ''the conspirators, terrorists, and fascists'' who tried to stop his reform plans.

''We are defeating them, and we will always defeat them,'' he said. ''On our side is morality, reason, and victory.''

In several interviews, opposition leaders downplayed the the fissures in their ranks, which they said were to be expected after the strike's failure and the prospect of an election.

Instead, they outlined a new strategy: The opposition will take a low profile over the coming months as the economy slowly collapses, reaching a nadir of high inflation and unemployment in August, the same month as the possible election.

This story ran on page A10 of the Boston Globe on 3/26/2003. © Copyright 2003 Globe Newspaper Company.