UBS Warburg Ups DCA Group Forecasts

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1501 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: DCA Group's (DVC) acquisition of Melbourne facilities significant, fulfills company target for 500 new beds in FY03, says UBS Warburg. "The acquisition of the 2 facilities has seen our FY04 NPAT increase by 5.8% to A$21.8 million and our FY05 NPAT increase by 4.4% to A$28.3 million," says analyst. Maintains Buy rating, 12-month share price target A$2.24 vs latest A$1.57. (BAM)

1458 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 11 points or 0.4% at 2855.0, stalling after negative developments for coalition forces in Iraq over weekend triggered early selloff. With S&P 500 futures down 1.0% in after-hours trade, dealers fear possible dip on Wall Street tonight. Nikkei 225 ignoring these concerns with 2.7% rise, but oil and bonds reflecting U.S. stock movements after-hours. NYMEX oil futures up 43 cents at US$27.34/barrel, while 30-year bond yield down 2 bps at 5.01%. Gold near flat at US$327.15. (DWR)

1453 [Dow Jones] BHP Billiton (BHP) Petroleum Chief Philip Aiken says US$20 billion Malaysia LNG sale to Japan doesn't threaten NW Shelf, main market for which is Japan. "At the moment we have got 15% of the Japanese market and I think there is a good chance that we will continue to have that," Aiken tells reporters, adding reliability a key attraction. BHP, Woodside (WPL) one-sixth participants in shelf. Shelf riding high after China deal last year, recent South Korea sale, but Malaysia shows competition heating up. There is concern shelf offered cheap price to get China business. (AND)

1449 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS Warburg downgrades shipbuilder Austal (ASB) to Reduce from Neutral following 60% share price rise from record low of 47 cents early this month. Leaves 65-cent valuation unchanged but increases price target to 60 cents from 54 cents. Shares last up 1 cent at 78 cents. (BAM)

1447 [Dow Jones] BHP Billiton's (BHP) head of petroleum Philip Aiken says acquisitions remain in the mix but will need "good strategic reason." Notes that BHP Billiton lacks some operating skills in deepwater and that an acquisition which brought such skills "would appeal to us quite strongly." Queried on whether it has held any more M&A talks with Shell and Woodside (WPL), he simply says "no." Petroleum star performer for BHP with strong orangic growth outlook, but faces near-term production fall in 2003, 2004. BHP down 0.4% at A$9.35. Woodside down 2.4% at A$10.89. (AND)

1440 [Dow Jones] Spot gold up $1.07 at $327.25/oz vs late NY, but upside capped after metal faltered after early push to day's high of $328.45, says Tokyo-based trader. Japanese investors, initially buying spot gold to arbitrage on sales of Tocom futures, turning sellers; they prefer to stay long but not overly so, as prices still volatile while Iraq war progresses. Pegs $325-$329 range for rest of Asian trade. (WCP)

1435 [Dow Jones] AUD 1-month vols little changed from last week at 10.25%-10.55% as spot AUD/USD trades in narrow band and seems to be building good support base around 0.5890 (currently 0.5926); trader at major Australian bank says vols could edge higher as U.S.-led forces encounter more resistance in Iraq than many in markets expected. (CMR)

1433 [Dow Jones] May Nymex crude may have been oversold on speculation of quick U.S.-led victory in Iraq, says HSBC oil and gas analyst Gordon Kwan; "prices could retest $30 a barrel again this week unless the military operations were extremely smooth going into Baghdad." Deteriorating situation in Nigeria, off-peak production in Venezuela and some lost output in Iraq, Kuwait to help prop up prices. (ILK)

1425 [Dow Jones] News Corp (NCP) price drop could be due to combo of factors, including profit-taking after last week's gains, anticipation of Wall Street weakness on account of setbacks in Iraq war and report that Murdoch may pay US$7 billion for DirecTV, says analyst. On latter issue, analyst notes market has only sketchy media report to deal with, and it isn't clear whether US$7 billion price tag is for all of DirecTV. Figure may spook some investors, who in past have read about supposed US$3 billion deal, but percentage of equity involved at those two price levels probably quite different. NCP ordinary shares off 3.1% at A$10.93. (HGU)

1348 [Dow Jones] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BHP Billiton (BHP) down 7 cents or 0.8% at A$9.32. Stock was rejected from approach of Fibonacci resistance at A$9.68 last week, followed by pivot point reversal and break of initial support at A$9.47. Daily momentum indicators show sell signals. However, downside may prove limited as weekly chart is also ranging and weekly momentum indicators moving up from oversold, says Dow Jones analyst David Rogers. Allow for near-term dip to A$9.00. Note support from uptrend line off A$8.27, currently at A$8.99. (DWR)

1339 [Dow Jones] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Commonwealth Bank (CBA) down 5 cents or 0.2% at A$24.98, having shied off tough resistance at A$25.30 (downtrend line from A$32.26) and A$25.41 (Feb 24 high). Daily and weekly charts trending down strongly, close below A$24.85 would give reversal signal. Daily momentum indicators threatening to peak at or near overbought. Long-term uptrend line broke at A$28.00 on Nov 7 and major Fibonacci support at A$23.81 (38.2% of A$5.80-A$34.94) broke March 12. Expect another dip below A$24.00 and possible retest of A$23.05 March low, says Dow Jones analyst David Rogers. (DWR)

1336 [Dow Jones] Woolworths (WOW) CEO Roger Corbett tells reporters at store opening that outbreak of war in Iraq has had no impact so far on its retail operations. Comment differs from Coles Myer (CML) CEO John Fletcher saying Sunday that all retailers will probably see some short-term effect of people doing less discretionary shopping than they may have in light of war, but that unlikely to be permanent. Retailers underperforming, CML down 1.2% at A$6.03, Woolworths (WOW) down 1% at A$11.78, while broader market down 0.3%. (LXV MDB)

1328 [Dow Jones] Nikkei continues to rise on war-led rally; but index fate today depends on result of basket trading during midday break, traders say; some predicting midday trade to show selling as players take profits. If that happens, expect buying to slow; even with support of some last-minute buying by public pension funds, index could finish in 8300-8400 range. On broader TSE first section, gainers outnumber decliners 1278 to 134, with 103 flat. (MYA)