Oil May Retest $30/Bbl This Week-HSBC

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1134 [Dow Jones] May Nymex crude may have been oversold on speculation of quick U.S.-led victory in Iraq, says HSBC oil and gas analyst Gordon Kwan; "prices could retest $30 a barrel again this week unless the military operations were extremely smooth going into Baghdad." Deteriorating situation in Nigeria, off-peak production in Venezuela and some lost output in Iraq, Kuwait to help prop up prices. (ILK)

1119 [Dow Jones] HKEx (0388) down 5.2% at HK$9.05, after government consultants recommend HKEx to transfer listing function to SFC, which market fears will hurt HKEx's income. UBS Warburg thinks loss of listing function "marginally negative for HKEx"; while HKEx may lose some income from high-growth listing business, UBS points out it could shed regulatory burden, and then be allowed to "focus more on commercial interests". Keeps Neutral call on stock. (IVW)

1113 [Dow Jones] Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical (0719) down 3.0% at HK$1.61 after posting 16% on-year fall in FY02 net profit to CNY68.4 million; 25% cut in final dividend to 6 fen also weighing on shares. Near-term weakness may continue due to lack of interest in shares; so far only 50,000 shares have changed hands. (RLI)

1110 [Dow Jones] Suspended Haier-CCT (1169) may issue statement later just to say not aware of any reasons for recent share price movements, rather than announcing asset injection, source says. Stock volatile since 29.9%-shareholder Haier Group hinted in February its white goods business may be injected into Haier-CCT. Haier-CCT has earlier said talks ongoing, and company may reiterate this on back of persistent speculation in its shares; pre-suspension price at 24.2 HK cents. (IVW)

1102 [Dow Jones] Oil prices may not fall as fast as they did after first Gulf War because of low inventories, says Shell global business environment manager David Frowd. "Stocks today, particularly in the U.S., are very low, supporting prices in the upper 20s (dollars a barrel) even without a war premium," he tells oil conference in Melbourne. Says OPEC capacity enough to cover lost Iraqi output, provided no interruptions in Venezuela or elsewhere. (AND)

1056 [Dow Jones] Illiquid Lai Sun Development (0488) still untraded at 3.1 HK cents, after company announces plans to cut a HK$625 million term loan by two-thirds, via transfer of 20% interest in Furama project, and assignment of HK$600 million face value of shareholder's loan to lenders. Little effect on Lai Sun shares expected as company still weighed down by huge liabilities (HK$8.2 billion as at February). (IVW)

1054 [Dow Jones] Monitor maker Proview (0334) extends Friday's 7.7% rally, up 4.1% at HK$1.02, after posting 267% on-year jump in 1H03 net profit to HK$73.3 million. Kim Eng Securities maintains buy rating even with stock up 54.5% in year-to-date; says despite management caution over 2H03 outlook due to war in Iraq, "growth momentum in place" as company licenses two new brands (Xerox, Sylvania), expands production capacity, improves margins. (RLI)

1042 [Dow Jones] Johnson Electric (0179) up 3.2% at HK$9.6, buoyed by continued Wall Street gains Friday. Stock also likely lifted by SCMP report quoting analysts as saying $750 million bid for GE's motor unit unlikely because company targeting low-risk takeover targets, may invest up to $200 million in new acquisitions. News should ease investors' gearing, integration concerns over potential bid for GE unit. Shares gain for 5th straight session (up 15% so far), but some profit-taking likely if U.S. stocks pull back. (RLI)

1031 [Dow Jones] HSI up 0.6% at 9238 on broad-based gains after U.S. stocks advanced further Friday; Prime US-exposure plays Johnson Electric (0179), up 3.8% at HK$9.65, Li & Fung (0494) up 2.4% at HK$8.45. PCCW (0008) again underperforms, down 0.5% at HK$4.775, on disappointment company's first-ever dividend to be delayed. Trader says short-covering, rampant last week, evidently weakening, but valuations, "caution of shorters" should continue to support HSI. Immediate resistance around 9270, then 9500 likely next resistance level. (IVW)

1024 [Dow Jones] SCMP Group (0583) up 1.8% at HK$2.9, with company due to report FY02 results later today. Daiwa Institute of Research expects company to post 16% on-year increase in net profit to HK$191 million, above Multex consensus of HK$182 million; but says "cautious about the pace of recovery in advertising revenue" due to low visibility on employment, private consumption. May consider downgrading stock if no positive news reflected in results. (RLI)

1023 [Dow Jones] Hospitalization of HK Hospital Authority Chief Executive William Ho with symptoms of atypical pneumonia likely to give HK political leaders pause for thought. Ho's apparent affliction (though this not confirmed) with severe acute respiratory syndrome inevitably raises question of whether he could have been in a position to pass on the mystery illness to HK's top leaders, including Chief Executive Tung, whom he has briefed in recent days on the illness. (JWR)

1018 [Dow Jones] According to trading screen, Haier-CCT (1169) shares suspended, but no reason given yet. Haier-CCT has earlier indicated in talks with 2nd biggest shareholder Haier Group (which owns 29.94% stake) about buying latter's white goods business. Suspension could be for confirmation of deal, or to reiterate talks ongoing, effectively quelling speculation. Haier-CCT ended up 29% at 24.2 HK cents on Friday, has been volatile since potential deal mooted.(IVW)

1001 [Dow Jones] MSNBC TV quotes unnamed U.S. military officials as saying special operations teams and units of CIA are in Baghdad; officials hint recent explosions there (with no air raid sirens or indications of U.S. aircraft overhead) may have been work of Iraqi resistance groups, possibly working with U.S. forces. Unclear if this is just U.S. disinformation, but it may help sustain markets' hopes for quick U.S. victory. (AXT)