Low Stocks Supporting Oil Price -Shell

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0855 [Dow Jones] Oil prices may not fall as fast as they did after first Gulf War because of low inventories, says Shell global business environment manager David Frowd. "Stocks today, particularly in the U.S., are very low, supporting prices in the upper 20s (dollars a barrel) even without a war premium," he tells oil conference in Melbourne. Says OPEC capacity enough to cover lost Iraqi output, provided no interruptions in Venezuela or elsewhere. (AND)

0852 [Dow Jones] OVERSEAS SHARES FRIDAY: Indian ADRs ended higher Friday on Nasdaq's 1.4% rise; Infosys (500209) up 5.2% at $67.21 (share equivalent INR6,405) and Satyam Infoway up 7.7% at $3.66 (not listed in India). On NYSE, Wipro (507685) up 6.2% at $31.50 (share equivalent INR1,501), Silverline (500389) up 4.6% at $1.83 (share equivalent INR9), Dr. Reddy's (500124) up 2.7% at $19.30 (share equivalent INR1,839) and Satyam Computer (500376) up 0.3% at $9.88 (share equivalent INR235).(ABB)

0848 [Dow Jones] Some unease may grow in Asia markets (despite Friday's NY gains in U.S. stocks, USD) with some setbacks for U.S. coalition forces; troops more than two-thirds of way to Baghdad but being slowed by fierce resistance in south, while Iraq has captured handful of U.S. soldiers. Iraqi air defenses remain active; suggests Iraq military leaders retain at least some control of forces around Baghdad. Scattering of special-forces troops operating in North, but promised big northern front yet to materialize; and much-hoped-for mass surrenders of Iraqi soldiers haven't occurred. (RXM)

0846 [Dow Jones] Asia bourses heavily weighted toward successful, and fast, conclusion for U.S. in war vs Iraq, but players probably too optimistic Iraqi regime can be toppled quickly, say analysts; and war's unlikely to improve economic fundamentals, company balance sheets. "Finding a solid explanation for this rather perverse relief rally is difficult, making it hard to justify playing this volatile market," says Henderson Global's Shane Oliver.(RXM)

0843 [Dow Jones] One potentially complicating factor for U.S.-led war on Iraq which may start to concern market: U.S. denies reports Turkey has sent troops into northern Iraq since war started but some fear this still possible; U.S., Russia have called on Turkey to keep troops out, though Turkey has refused to agree to this, continuing to mass armor on Iraqi border. May raise fears of bloody "war within a war" between Turks and Kurds, provide distraction U.S. can ill-afford. (RXM)

0842 [Dow Jones] MSNBC TV quotes unnamed U.S. military officials as saying special operations teams and units of CIA are in Baghdad; officials hint recent explosions there (with no air raid sirens or indications of U.S. aircraft overhead) may have been work of Iraqi resistance groups, possibly working with U.S. forces. Unclear if this is just U.S. disinformation, but it may help sustain markets' hopes for quick U.S. victory. (AXT)

0838 [Dow Jones] U.S. officials say U.S. troops have found suspected "chemical factory" in south Iraq, but don't confirm whether it's actually believed to be chemical weapons facility as Fox TV reported earlier. If U.S. can prove Iraq had major WMD projects, it will greatly help to justify U.S. decision to go to war in court of world opinion, and reduce negative geopolitical fallout from war - so positive for USD and equities. (AXT)

0836 [Dow Jones] It became clear at weekend that one key war aim - securing Iraq's oilfields intact - has been mostly achieved. Key parts of southern fields and major export terminals on Gulf have been taken; northern fields not yet fully in U.S. hands but appear so far to have avoided damage; U.S. official said Saturday only 9 of Iraq's 500+ fields have been sabotaged. This removes one big fear of markets, even though fall of Baghdad may be days or weeks away. (AXT)

0834 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks soared Friday, with DJIA going into positive territory for year on news of heavy bombardment of Baghdad; DJIA +2.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%, Philly semicon index +2.2% in heavy trade, with DJIA +8.4% for week, biggest weekly gain since October 1982. Players took cues too from reports suggesting Saddam Hussein may have been killed in initial air strike, though later reports cast doubt on this; airline, tourism stocks fared well with Southwest Airlines +7.3%, Walt Disney +9.3% on hopes a short war would ease concerns about tourism. Some analysts say this just relief rally, others though say gains have legs; "just as it wasn't smart to buy on the dips through the bear market, it's not wise to sell this rally," says one. EDS +12% after ousting CEO Thursday, Micron +11% despite 2Q loss as sales surged; but Intuit slid 24% on FY earnings warning. Intuit remained active after-hours, down another 1%.(RXM)

0830 [Dow Jones] OUTLOOK: 0900 RBI to release money market data for Saturday, Mumbai;

1000 Start of 2-day Gas Summit, organized by FICCI, Mumbai;

1200 RBI to announce results of 1-day repo and reverse repo auctions, Mumbai;

1200 Kotak Mahindra to hold media conference on its conversion to a bank, Mumbai;

Syngenta India to report FY02 results.(DJ Team)