Elevated gas prices changing habits? Don't bet on it

www.times-standard.com Article Last Updated: Thursday, March 20, 2003 - 6:14:05 AM PST By James Faulk The Times-Standard

EUREKA -- With the startling and dramatic spike recently in the price paid at the pump, you might expect that people would change their driving habits to save cash.

Evidence thus far has not borne that out -- people continue to drive as they always have, and buy the same big-ticket gas-guzzling sports utility vehicles.

According to Sean Comey, media spokesman for AAA of Northern California in San Francisco, dramatic spikes in prices often translate into less people driving, but the verdict on the current situation is still out, he said.

"It's too early to say for sure," he said. "But in the past when we've seen gas prices go up this quickly, there has been a changing of habits."

The recent rise in prices started in earnest in December, and the sticker shock set in about six weeks ago, Comey said. It won't be long until the trends, whatever they are, become clear.

Make no mistake -- this is a serious increase.

"It's a record high almost everywhere," he said. "It's virtually impossible to get gas for less than $2 a gallon anywhere in California."

San Francisco, which has consistently had the highest gas prices in the state recently, was selling its gas Wednesday for $2.28 per gallon of regular, while Humboldt Bay retailers hovered around $2.20.

Even with record-high gas prices, which could theoretically impact tourism, the number of travelers locally do not seem to have taken a hit.

J Warren Hockaday of the Eureka Chamber of Commerce said the number of walk-in visitors at the chamber offices appears to be on track with what it was last year, if not a little better.

He said that for once, motorists in Eureka are not paying the highest prices in the state, which may be refreshing for travelers.

Besides, tourism has benefited generally from concerns about travel safety, as people are staying closer to home; tourists may be drawn to this area because of security concerns, Hockaday said.

While the spike in gas prices may have had an impact on people driving, it has not counteracted other benefits the area has seen, he said.

Another expectation of the gas price increase could be that people would turn to more efficient vehicles.

Not so, say two local car dealers.

Jeremy Duncan, sales associate with Opie's Fine Cars, said buying habits seem to much the same as they ever were.

"Our numbers don't show it," he said.

Bill Davis of Harper Ford Country agreed.

While people have complained to retailers on the lot, they still buy whatever they want.

"We get complaints on the price of gas but it doesn't seem to change anyone's buying habits," he said. "They buy what they want and worry about it later."

Two local motorists filling up at a local gas station said the price of gas has not changed their driving habits.

Tony Scharn of Eureka said he has no choice but to drive as much as he does, because he has to drive to and from work.

He did say that with his next car, fuel economy may be among the determining factors.

Another man, who gave his name only as Hal, said he owns a sports utility vehicle now and will likely buy another one when the time comes.

Ridership on area buses has not seen any jump, either.

Nelleen Fregoso of the Humboldt Transit Authority said the number of people riding the bus has not noticeable increased. The authority, however, is affected by having to pay the high prices, she said.

There's nine buses that travel between 300 and 350 miles a day. Each bus gets five miles to the gallon. Fuel is therefore the second-highest cost to the authority, under labor.

Fregoso did encourage people frustrated by fuel costs to hop on a bus, which could keep them from having to pay for gas and perhaps even help drive the costs down, she said.

The factors in the fuel price explosion are a strike in Venezuela, which was recently brought to an end, and the looming and seemingly inevitable war with Iraq.

"The fear has been that (the war) would disrupt the distribution network for petroleum in the Middle East," Comey said.

California receives 30 percent of its crude oil that gets turned into gas from overseas sources. Most of the state's oil comes from California and Alaska, while roughly 8 percent comes from Iraq.

That's a big deal with the industry being so tightly balanced between supply and demand. Since the sale of petroleum is a world market and western Europe gets a much higher percentage of its oil from Iraq, some worry that the flow could be interrupted.

On the other hand, the price of crude oil has dropped recently, and the feeling in the industry is that the war will likely be resolved quickly and the supply stabilized.

"However, it will take a while before motorists see a benefit," Comey said. "Typically prices rise like a rocket and come down like a feather."

AAA will soon start to track consumer travel trends on a weekly basis, and an analysis will be available each week on how the war and prices are affecting a variety of trends, such as driving and air travel.