UA professors predict quick fall of Baghdad

www.tuscaloosanews.com By Steve Reeves Staff Writer March 20, 2003

TUSCALOOSA | Baghdad will fall within two to three weeks, and gas prices will remain stable if the war against Iraq goes well.

Those were the opinions expressed by two University of Alabama professors after the opening shots Wednesday night of the U.S.-led campaign to topple Saddam Hussein.

Donald Snow, a UA political science professor and nationally known military expert, said the first hours and days of the U.S. military campaign will be designed to knock out Iraqi communications and rattle that nation’s will to continue fighting.

“This is exactly the way we started Gulf War I," Snow said.

He said an intense bombardment by U.S. and British warplanes can be expected during the next two to three days, an effort he said is meant to shock the Iraqi army into giving up.

“That probably won’t work," Snow said. “Those guys are going to fight. It’s said the Iraqis don’t fight well, but they fight hard."

Snow predicted that Baghdad would fall within two to three weeks, and that would be when the U.S. military will face its biggest challenge.

“There’s going to be continued resistance after the war," he said. “The Iraqis may treat us as liberators the first couple of weeks. But when they realize we’re not leaving, that’s when it gets dicey."

Snow also predicted much higher casualties than in the first war against Iraq, when 148 U.S. troops lost their lives. He said the urban fighting that will likely result from the invasion means a much higher degree of danger for the troops.

“There will absolutely be higher casualties than the first time around," he said.

Peter Clark, a UA chemical engineering professor, said he doesn’t expect the war to result in higher gas prices.

Clark pointed out that oil prices have gone down the last two days and that Venezuela, a major oil supplier, is gearing up its production capacity.

“As long as there’s not damage to the oil fields, or if they somehow manage to block the shipping lanes, I don’t think much is going to happen," Clark said. “If the war goes as it should, gas prices by the summer should start to drift down."