MARKET TALK: Mogas recovers on stks data, war jitters
www.vheadline.com Posted: Wednesday, March 19, 2003 By: PETROLEUMWORLD
1658 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex Apr mogas trims losses after modestly bullish stocks reports from API and DOE. Analysts call the data neutral as war's impact on spring mogas demand remains uncertain. "The market is so nervous that it is overlooking the core fundamentals," says an analyst. Active crack- spread trading in Apr, May and Jun seen adding to volatility. Apr mogas dn 9 pts to 96.10 c/gal, May +34 pts to 95.70c; Jun +15 pts to 93.20c. Apr heating oil up 82 pts to 86.60c. (JMX)
1637 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex Apr natural gas futures contract holding at top of 10c range ($5.28-$5.45/MMBtu). Locals seen bidding up price. Long-term fundamentals still bullish, with low storage, possible cold still around, said Gerry Saccente of ABN AMRO in NY. War with Iraq on periphery of market, "and we're blind to everything right now." Physical gas seen opening uncha to +1c to $5.34/MMBtu as consolidation continues in the market. Physical gas at Henry Hub running around $5.22/MMBtu. Gas in NE running around $5.70-$5.72/MMBtu as weather moderates. Apr at $5.42, +8.1c; May at $5.38, +6.0c.(JEE)
1634 GMT [Dow Jones] While still tight compared to year ago, US gasoline stks fell less than expected. Add to this less than stellar demand, a rise in imports to more than 1 mln bpd and relatively flat production levels. Gasoline inventories fell 900,000 bbl to 201.1 mln bbl, dn 15.1 mln bbl on the year. Expectations were for a decline of 1.5 mln bbl. Demand, at 8.6 mln bpd, fell from more than 9 mln bpd last week, and was 100,000 bpd lower than a year ago, EIA shows. The move shows a slow week mid-Mar, amplifying bearish impact of Feb's break in a trend of higher demand. Inventories on the West Coast, where Calif is now seeing avg price of $2.145/gal (up 65c on yr), rose 1.9 mln bbl to 30.5 mln bbl. (BWH)
1619 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex April crude extends losses after inventory DOE/API reports showed a small and large build in crude stocks, respectively. Analysts say traders are discounting the reports in favor of the impending war with Iraq. "Everyone is jockeying in and out of the front-month and wondering where to go," said analyst Bill O'Grady with A.G. Edwards. Expiring April front-month crude contract seen contributing to volatility. April crude -72c at $30.95/bbl. (JMX)
1617 GMT [Dow Jones] New England daily power trades down with warmer weather seen easing electric demand. Deals are done from $55-$57/MWh, a trader at a merchant energy company says, off $6-$7 from Tue. (KAM)
1607 GMT [Dow Jones] The West Coast and Rockies were the exceptions in the US crude inventory rise of 400,000 bbl, EIA reports. Builds of 900,000 bbl on the East Coast, 2.3 mln bbl on the Gulf Coast, and 1.6 mln bbl in the Midwest offset a draw of 4.2 mln bbl on the West Coast and 200,000 bbl in the Rockies. Expectations for a build in US stks were much higher, 3 mln bbl. Imports rose sharply, 1.072 mln bpd, to 8.693 mln bpd. (BWH)
1600 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex oil complex pares opening losses in response to EIA inventory statistics showing declines in gasoline, distillate stks (dn 900,000 bbl and 1.1 mln bbl, respectively). Smaller-than-expected build in crude stks (up 400,000 bbl) eases May crude losses, with contract now down 15 at $29.90/bbl. Apr crude off $1.17 at $30.50. Rise in refinery utilization (+1.0 pct pt) counters somewhat rise in crude imports (+1.072 mln bpd to 8.693 mln bpd) but distillate demand hefty at 4.526 mln bpd. Apr heating oil +32 pts at 86.10 c/gal; Apr gasoline -49 pts at 95.70c.(BWH)
1540 GMT [Dow Jones] Little immediate reaction from IPE Brent, gasoil mkts to DOE/API data which is deemed neutral to slightly bullish compared with expectations, says broker. Big discrepancy between API and DOE crude data is causing traders to look at PADD breakdowns carefully, may delay any potential upside, he says. API shows crude stocks up 5.144m bbls, with DOE showing a 0.4m bbl rise. (SMF)
1535 GMT [Dow Jones] N Sea crude mkt remains subdued Wed afternoon as participants watch developments in Iraq, traders say. Statoil, Norsk Hydro each have an Oseberg cargo for cross-month loading available. Differentials seen as follows: Oseberg at dtd +70c, Forties at +65c, Ekofisk at +55c, Statfjord at +$1.25 and Gullfaks at +1.30.(SJC)
1530 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex Apr crude, expiring Thu, plunges at open, narrowing spread to May to less than $1/bbl. Contract is dn 97c at $30.70/bbl. Funds behind selling but locals jumping in, too. Traders appear still fixated on notion that war with Iraq will be quick and oil supply at least adequate, an analyst says. May contract is dn only 20c to $29.85/bbl. Expectations for build in EIA, API rpts weigh on prices. Apr tests support at $30.95; next support is $30.05.(BWH)
1456 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex Apr natural gas seen opening unchanged to one cent higher, to $5.34/MMBtu in continued consolidation. Physical gas at Henry Hub starts day around $5.22, slightly above its Tue range. Gas in NE trades around $5.85-$6, inside its Tue range. Mkt looks ahead to Thu gas storage report and transition to spring with storage levels hovering at lows. (JEE)