Thailand to 'wait and see' on Bush ultimatum

www.nationmultimedia.com Published on Mar 19, 2003

Thailand has adopted a wait-and-see position after US President George W Bush gave Saddam Hussein two days to flee Iraq or face a US-led invasion.

"Our position at this time is to take the 48 hours and wait and see. I have told the Foreign Ministry to co-ordinate with other Asean members," Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said yesterday.

The premier said he didn't think Asean would put forward a common position because the grouping includes a number of Muslim countries opposed to the war.

Thaksin reiterated his position that the Iraq crisis was not a religious clash because Baghdad had previously sent its troops into invade Kuwait, also a Muslim country.

The government's priority was to take precautionary measures and ensure that Thailand is not a target for any possible attack, he said.

"The economy is likely to slow down but the Cabinet will meet and discuss possible measures to ensure stability," Thaksin said. To ease economic repercussions, he said the government would continue to subsidise petrol prices and launch a campaign to save energy.

Thaksin said Thai nationals who chose to remain in Iraq would be urged to take refuge at the Thai Embassy in Baghdad. However, he noted that the mission had been administered by local staff since its evacuation and that it is close to Saddam's house, so it could pose a problem for anybody who resides there.

Deputy Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who handles security affairs, said many countries had tried their utmost to point out to the US the repercussions of war on innocent people.

"It seems, however, that the US has less consideration for other issues than its own national interest," said Chavalit.

He added that many people believe the US has overreacted, given that the Security Council did not vote on the last UN resolution on Iraq.

He said that the US attack would mainly hit the Thai economy in the export sector. Thailand would, however, need to look for ways to "reap the most benefits from the current situation".

Chavalit denied reports that the US had asked to use military bases in Thailand.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow said that the ministry is still hopeful that the UN will find a last-minute diplomatic resolution to the Iraq crisis within the 48-hour period set by Washington.

THAI REACTION: PM opts to wait and see

Thailand adopted a wait-and-see position today after US President George W Bush gave Saddam Hussein two days to flee Iraq or face a US-led invasion.

"Our position at this time is to take the 48 hours and wait and see. I have told the Foreign Ministry to co-ordinate with other Asean members," Thaksin said.

The premier said he didn't think Asean would come up with a common position because the grouping "has a number of Muslim countries opposed to the war". Thaksin reiterated his position that the Iraq crisis was not a religious clash because Baghdad had previously sent its troops into Kuwait, also a Muslim country.

Thaksin said it was his government's utmost concern to take precautionary measures and ensure that Thailand is not a target of any possible attack.

"The economy might slow down but the Cabinet will meet and discuss possible measures to ensure stability," Thaksin said, adding that his policy of subsidising petrol prices would continue for the time being.

Thaksin said Thai nationals who chose to remain in Iraq would be urged to take refuge at the Thai Embassy in Baghdad.

However, that fact that the embassy, which has been evacuated and left under the administration of local staff, is close to Saddam's house could pose a problem for anybody who resides there, he said.

Readers with relatives in Iraq can keep up on the latest developments there by contacting the following numbers:

Foreign Ministry l24-hour call centre on the Iraqi situation Telephone (02) 643 5262, (02) 643 5096-9 or (02) 643 5256 Fax (02) 643 5259 lQueries about Thai labourers in Iraq and other Middle East countries Telephone (02) 575 1047-9

Labour and Social Welfare Ministry l24-hour hotline 1694 or 1695 lHelp Centre for Labourers Telephone (02) 354 1726 or (02) 354 1728

Oil austerity

With a US-led war against Iraq looming, the government yesterday introduced a series of mandatory measures aimed at cutting oil and energy consumption.

The measures were launched after world oil prices collapsed by 10 per cent yesterday as Washington's ultimatum to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to quit Baghdad or face war eased uncertainty.

Energy Minister Prommin Lertsuridej yesterday unveiled the following measures approved by the Cabinet at its weekly meeting:

lCutting energy and electricity consumption in fiscal 2003 by 10 per cent.

lRaising public awareness with a booklet on energy-saving highlighting measures such as reducing the use of elevators and keeping air-conditioners at 25 degrees Celsius.

lEducating government agencies on energy-saving.

lTurning off lights in government buildings at night, except police stations and hospitals.

lPromoting energy saving in government vehicles, such as annual inspections and maximum driving speeds of 90 kilometres per hour.

The Energy Ministry will also encourage the public and the private sector to save energy and oil by cutting consumption by 10 per cent if a war erupts, Prommin said yesterday.

He said the country's emergency oil supply was enough for more than 60 days.

Energy expert warns of threat to oil supplies

World oil prices could shoot up to as high as US$60 a barrel, translating into a damaging local price of Bt30 a litre, if a US-led war cannot be limited to Iraq, Piyasvasti Amranand, former secretary general of the National Energy Policy Office, said yesterday.

Piyasvasti drew up a worst-case scenario as the clock ticked towards an almost certain war in Iraq, following an ultimatum from US President George W Bush on Monday which gave Iraqi president Saddam Hussein 48 hours to flee his country or face an US-led invasion.

However, he said the immediate trend for global oil prices would be down, provided that a war in Iraq was limited.

Piyasvasti said prices of oil would not fall as fast as they had during the first Gulf War in 1991, due to a number of factors. Unlike in the Gulf War, he said, current high oil prices stem not only from the prospect of war in Iraq but also from a reduction of production capacity in Venezuela.

"Also, unlike in 1991, when other oil-producing countries were capable of compensating for the two-million-barrel-a-day supply disruption from Iraq and Kuwait, Opec's capacity to increase production is now more limited," he said.

The worst-case scenario would be if the war spread to other oil-producing countries in the Middle East, resulting in attacks on oil wells in countries such as Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, said Piyasvasti.

"This would badly disrupt oil supplies and prices for a long period, perhaps pushing the price of crude even higher than US$60 a barrel," he said.

Crude oil currently stands at US$30-35 a barrel. Local premium petrol is priced at Bt20 a litre before subsidy and Bt16.99 after subsidy.

Based on current world oil prices, the government's Bt6 billion subsidy loan will be depleted by the end of this month, Piyasvasti said.

LIVING AT GROUND ZERO: 25 students still in Iraq

The Foreign Affairs Ministry is trying to persuade 25 Thai students to leave Iraq. The students at Saddam University are safe, "but we are still encouraging them to leave Iraq at the earliest opportunity," ministry spokesman Sihasak Puangketkaew said yesterday.

Meanwhile two ministries have earmarked a combined Bt103.6 million for the evacuation of Thais from the Middle East, Labour Minister Suwat Liptapanlop said yesterday.

"My assistant, Prapass Limprabhand, will depart for the Middle East tomorrow at the head of a team in charge of evacuations," he said, adding that his adviser, Wichit Yaembunruang, and other senior officials would be on the team.

Prapass will monitor the evacuation of Thai workers from Kuwait and Bahrain and give regular progress reports to the Labour Ministry, Suwat said.

"I think evacuations may be necessary from Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia," he said. Authorities are cooperating closely to prepare for evacuation by air, land and sea.

"If war erupts, we will evacuate Thai citizens immediately," he said.

Labour Permanent Secretary Apai Chandanachulaka said Army and commercial aircraft were on standby. Of the 54,200 Thais in the Middle East, 4,000 have said they want to return home.

"We're ready to bring them home, and we are also looking for employment opportunities for those who return," he said.

Evacuees will undergo medical examinations before being sent back to their home provinces, where they will be given vocational training and help finding work, he said.

Workers enrolled in a state fund for Thais employed overseas will get Bt10,000 compensation each, others Bt2,000.

However, at least three citizens do not wish to return, a Foreign Ministry source said. "One couple said they could take care of themselves, while another person refused to come back because of pending legal action in Thailand."

The source said all 1,238 Thais working in Kuwait said they wanted to wait and see how the US-Iraq situation developed before making any decision to return home. "This is due to contract obligations with their employers in Kuwait," the source said.

Of about 30 Thai students in Kuwait all say they want to return home.

In Israel, 2,000 Thais in urban areas have been moved to southern parts of the country, while 24,000 in rural areas are considered safe, the source said.

Southeast Asia divided, but alert

Southeast Asia yesterday went on high alert against reprisal attacks by Muslim militants as the United States girded for war against Iraq.

In Bangkok, agencies stepped up security at the British and American embassies as well as other possible targets, while Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra refused to comment on US President George W Bush's demand that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein leave Baghdad within 48 hours or face attack.

Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, speaking shortly after Bush's televised ultimatum, urged national unity to safeguard the country.

Manila is a stalwart ally of Washington in the global war against terrorism and has benefited from US training and equipment as its troops battle Islamic and communist rebel groups.

"We must be proactive against collateral terrorist attacks," she said in a radio broadcast.

As Bush spoke on television, a dozen protesters shouting "US imperialists" tried to reach the gates of the heavily fortified US embassy in Manila, but they were clubbed back by riot police.

Arroyo was due to convene the National Security Council yesterday as troops and police stepped up patrols at airports, railway stations, embassies, oil depots and shopping malls.

Police called a meeting of diplomats to discuss security.

Military and police officials have said they were concerned that Muslim rebels fighting for a homeland in the south of the mainly Roman Catholic country may bring their war to Manila, the capital and home to 12 million people, if the United States attacks Iraq.

Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation, said that a US attack on Iraq would be illegal without the consent of the United Nations.

"We are concerned that the US is creating the impression that diplomatic efforts have failed and the only sure thing is war," foreign ministry spokesman Marty Natalegawa said after Bush's address.

"Obviously, we consider any steps taken without the consent of the UN Security Council as having no legality," Natalegawa said.

"Diplomatic efforts through the United Nations must be exhausted so that the Iraqi crisis can be solved peacefully."

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has tightened security at embassies in Phnom Penh and ordered protection for Westerners amid the threat of an imminent US-led war in Iraq.

Speaking at a temple inauguration ceremony late on Monday, Hun Sen said Saddam's threat to attack US interests abroad meant that "they might cause an explosion here and there".

"I have issued an order to the armed forces and authorities at all levels to take all measures to protect all foreigners currently staying on Cambodian soil," Hun Sen said.

"In Phnom Penh, additional security forces have been deployed since last night to protect all embassies.

"If the war takes place, the Cambodian people must maintain calm. No matter what, this war is still far away from us."

He said tourists were visiting Cambodia in ever-increasing numbers and as a result, "we must regard safety for all foreigners as the security of Cambodia".

Embassies' security tightened

Thailand heightened security yesterday around the embassies and interests of countries involved in the Iraqi crisis, and increased immigration surveillance amid global fears of retaliatory terrorist attacks.

"We are not siding with either camp. We are simply giving unconditional and non-partisan protection to the interests of parties involved in the conflict," said police chief Sant Sarutanond.

Sant added that Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had given him specific orders to protect embassies, key diplomatic figures and other foreign interests. The police have been in "around-the-clock" contact with international police agencies regarding security matters, Sant said.

In particular, the embassies of countries directly involved in the military stand-off are being closely guarded, he said, adding that additional protection would also be provided based on individual requests.

Deputy police chief Thawatchai Pailee said Immigration Police had been instructed to keep a close watch on certain types of tourists during their stay in Thailand.

Surayud Chulanont, supreme commander of the Royal Thai Armed Forces, gave assurances that Thai authorities were on guard against all possible kinds of terrorist attacks, including those involving chemical weapons.

"Measures have been imposed on sensitive materials and intelligence officers have been working closely with our international friends."

The Royal Thai Navy declared it was prepared to protect oil depots if requested, while the Royal Thai Air Force said it too was prepared to counter the terrorist threat.

Bangkok Metropolitan Police held a special meeting yesterday evening to discuss security arrangements for the city.

Meanwhile, more than two dozen Thai students remain in Iraq. Surayud said Thailand was ready to effect their prompt evacuation as soon as they are ready to leave the country.

Agency sees war lasting 2 to 9 weeks

The government agency in charge of coordinating intelligence reports told the Cabinet yesterday that the expected US attack on Iraq would last for at least two weeks but no longer than two months.

Government spokesman Sita Divari said the intelligence coordination centre believed the attack would definitely take place as Saddam Hussein would not agree to step down.

Sita quoted the centre, which coordinates intelligence reports from the National Intelligence Agency, Special Branch Police and the Army's National Security Centre, as reporting to the Cabinet that all embassies in Baghdad had ceased operations.

Sita said the Cabinet was also informed that the US government had asked for map coordinates of the locations of all embassies to avoid hitting them with missiles during the war.

A Government House source said the intelligence coordination centre had based its assessment on information from the US Central Intelligence Agency.

The intelligence coordination centre estimated that oil prices would increase sharply when the attack begins but would gradually fall during the latter stages of the conflict.

The centre expected oil prices to fall back below their current levels one or two months after the attack concludes.

Inspectors set to fly home

The three Thai military officers who are part of the UN weapons-inspection team in Iraq are preparing to leave the country following an order from the UN Secretary Council, Armed Forces Supreme Commander General Surayudh Chulanont said yesterday.

Colonel MC Chalermsuk Yukhon, Group-Captain Mongkol Sukhonthaweha and Squadron-Leader Yongyut Sungsuman are believed to have left the site for a safer place, and the Foreign Ministry is attempting to locate them.

A further six Thai soldiers who belong to a UN unit called "Unicom" are involved in monitoring the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border. The group is still operating and is expected to complete its task in June.

IRAQ WAR: US trade ties temper Asean line

Southeast Asian countries yesterday trod a delicate path to maintain ties with major trading partner the United States following President George W Bush's "exile or else" ultimatum to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

The region's position was further complicated by growing concern over Islamic militants and the impact of oil prices, said Ong Keng Yong, secretary-general of the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean).

Speaking to reporters at the beginning of the Asean foreign ministers' retreat, Ong said most of Southeast Asia's 500 million people opposed disarming Baghdad by force, saying it would be "suicidal" for politicians to explicitly back the United States.

"You cannot expect an Asean country to come out openly to say 'I support America'," Ong told reporters in Malaysia's Sabah state at the beginning of the two-day retreat in Borneo.

Foreign ministers of the regional grouping planned to exchange views and hoped to reach common agreement on the Iraqi crisis, said Kitti Wasinondh, director the Thai Foreign Ministry's Asean Department.

Thailand wants the group to express a collective reaction and help each other minimise the negative impacts of a war, he said.

But obtaining a common position will be difficult, with Singapore and the Philippines publicly announcing that they support the US move to bypass the UN Security Council to disarm Saddam's regime by force.

Singapore and the Philippines, whose economic and strategic interests are closely tied to the US, have refused to yield to a majority view, which goes against the traditionally consensus approach of Asean.

Thailand, a key US ally in the region and one of five Southeast Asian countries that has a defence pact with Washington, has taken a wait-and-see approach.

Other members, led by Muslim-majority Malaysia, said any attack on Iraq had to have the blessing of the UN Security Council.

The tension in the Middle East has forced a couple of Asean ministers to either delay or cancel the trip.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Blas Ople skipped the meeting due to the tension in the Middle East, where over a million Filipinos are working, according to an Asean official.

Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai delayed his flight to the Asean retreat to call an urgent meeting at the ministry yesterday to prepare for the possible attack.

Besides the Iraq crisis, Asean ministers are looking to the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) to play a role in solving the North Korean stand-off.

Thailand has suggested that the ARF play a direct role, but the idea was shot down by both the US, an ARF member, and North Korea because Pyongyang wants bilateral discussions with Washington.

Supalak Ganjanakhundee The Nation, KOTA KINABALU, MALAYSIA