Tight timeline for U.S. oil supplies - May not have time, resources to build summer gas supplies

www.msnbc.com NEW YORK, March 17 — Time is running out for extra oil supplies expected from the OPEC cartel to hit U.S. shores and allow the world’s biggest fuel consumer to smoothly build gasoline supplies ahead of the summer driving season.
THE SITUATION COULD MARK a large problem for the United States, leaving it more dependent on imports than ever at a time when the White House pushes to the brink of war on Iraq and retail gasoline prices hit all-time highs, threatening an economic recovery. “The U.S. needs large slugs of extra oil to cope with the increase in (refinery) runs, stop the erosion of inventories and to begin to claw back some cover,” JP Morgan said in a research note. “The U.S. oil market is undersupplied.” U.S. gas prices hit record highs U.S. oil stockpiles have fallen below 270 million barrels, the government’s suggested level for seamless operations, as supply disruptions from Venezuela and an unusually long, cold winter drained supplies.
The resulting low oil inventories, near the lowest level since 1975, will prove a problem for U.S. fuel suppliers, who tend to use the brief respite in consumer demand in the second quarter to refine more crude oil and build fuel stocks ahead of higher summer gasoline demand. “The main problem is that while global oil demand does indeed hit a minimum in (the second quarter), U.S. crude oil runs increase,” said JP Morgan, meaning deeper declines in crude supply are likely if imports don’t shoot higher. The U.S. second-quarter increase in crude oil demand averaged roughly 1 million barrels per day in 2001 and 2002, and is expected to be even sharper this year as the industry struggles to buffer paper-thin inventories — requiring a strong increase in imports.
“There’s potential for trouble,” said Tim Evans, senior analyst at IFR-Pegasus. “Low crude inventories limit the extent to which higher refinery rates can be sustained. But the cavalry rising up over the hillside is represented by OPEC, which has already started pumping away.” OPEC, which accounts for 60 percent of world oil exports, has signaled it will defend against global short supply by upping shipment volumes even as the group declines to lift its official production curbs due to worries over overall weakness in global demand. OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia has already raised production sharply in the first two months of this year to make up for lost Venezuelan supply. Tanker brokers said on Friday the kingdom snapped up 14 tankers to move 29.5 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. Gulf for May delivery. So far, the increased production has yet to translate into higher U.S. crude stockpiles.
And, while Saudi Arabia has reassured the market it will continue to pump more oil in the event of a war, there are doubts whether Riyadh has enough spare capacity to compensate fully for disruptions from Iraq, which has a sustainable export capacity of 2.2 million bpd. The International Energy Agency in a monthly report on the oil market outlook released on Wednesday estimated that OPEC in total has only 900,000 bpd to spare, with 400,000 bpd in Saudi. If crude supplies become scarce enough to hinder the U.S. oil industry’s attempt to build up gasoline supplies before summer, pump prices are likely to continue to surge, pushing through record levels. The average retail price of gasoline in the United States on Saturday was $1.719 a gallon, a new all-time high, according to the American Automobile Association’s latest survey.
The inventory situation in the U.S. has worried the White House enough to consider the use of a release of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve — a move reserved for only the most dire of supply crunches. U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said on Friday Washington reserved the right to make a unilateral release of crude from the emergency reserve in the event of a severe supply disruption. The statement came after a similar comment from Japan, which said it would tap its reserve if Iraq is invaded by U.S.-led forces.