Opposition 2003 should learn from opposition mistakes in 1903

www.vheadline.com Posted: Monday, March 10, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Historian Jorge Olavarria compares a last ditch battle fought by Cipriano Castro (1899-1902, 1902-1904, 1904-1908) 100 years ago to those fought and won by President Hugo Chavez Frias (1998-).

“The biggest and bloodiest battle in Venezuelan history took place 100 years ago in La Victoria (Aragua) between 8,000 poorly-equipped men defending Castro and 14,000 well-armed men belonging to the Liberating Revolution.” Castro won because of a serious mistake on the part of government forces that lost the advantage of superior numbers by fighting the battle in a place where they could not make full use of their troops.

• Until that moment, Castro had been on the run and it was just a matter of finishing him off.

Instead of heeding a proposal to take Caracas and attack Castro later from a more advantageous position, the arrogant warlord Luciano Mendoza insisted on attacking Castro holed up in La Victoria boasting that Castro would not last three hours … the astute soldier, Castro outfoxed his adversaries.

“Today the same is happening … the organized forces of the opposition grouped in the Coordinadora Democratica (CD) are far superior to those of the government … but they have lost the battle of the national stoppage.”

After losing the battle of La Victoria in 1903, the demoralized warlords returned home and General Juan Vicente Gomez mopped up by defeating Nicolas Rolando, last of the 19th century warlords, in Ciudad Bolivar in July 1903.

Olavarria traces two battles between April 2002 and February 2003 and says Chavez Frias has won both because of serious errors in the opposition camp, even there were minor gains.

Battle 1: The first battle wasn’t programmed but its preparation was a brilliant piece of political strategy. As a reaction to the 48 fast track decree in November 2001, the opposition organized a very successful 24-hour national stoppage on December 10 … the January 23, 2002 march ratified the size, enthusiasm and combativeness of the opposition. Next came the Federation of Chambers of Commerce & Industry (Fedecamaras), and Confederation of Trade Unions (CTV) document drawn up with the aid of the Church. Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) executives reacted against the dismissal of General Guaicaipuro Lameda and against the appointment of Gaston Parra as PDVSA president … protests were spontaneous ... the middle classes had lost their fear.

On April 11, the scaled stoppage was declared indefinite and the ensuing march surprised everyone by its size and enthusiasm … “even though we don’t know the truth of half of what happened, we do know that Chavez Frias resigned but the battle was lost.”

Battle 2 on December 2: The same leaders repeated the April 11 scheme … this time, however, the military that could have asked for Chavez Frias’ resignation were acting the fool in Altamira Plaza or boycotting the decisions of Coordinadora Democratica (CD). Daily TV messages from the triad stoppage leadership were repetitive and boring. Despite enthusiastic crowds, the second battle was lost.

Commenting the signature campaign, Olavarria calls it a third loss, which started well. There was no agreement on the tickets after the consultative referendum was dropped due to legal grounds.

The recall referendum was not even considered as a viable option at first. The discussion whether to include a signature campaign for a Constituent Assembly, Olavarria recalls, was beneficial because it eliminated an insensible and shortsighted opposition element.

• It was Chavez Frias himself that proposed the recall referendum and it was only included in the opposition ticket at the last moment.

Olavarria criticizes NGO Sumate’s announcement of signature statistics, claiming that it turned out to be the launching of Enrique Mendoza’s bid to become the single presidential candidate. Julio Borges, Henrique Salas Romer weren’t invited.

People who had marched for two months felt cheated.

Worse still, after the announcement of signature statistics, Fedecamaras president, Carlos Fernandez retired with friends to a restaurant for a juicy steak … it was there where he was scandalously arrested.