War concerns unsettle oil industry

www.taipeitimes.com NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE Monday, Mar 10, 2003,Page 12

For months, the OPEC has scrambled, with little success, to keep a lid on oil prices. With war threatening as the cartel's ministers meet in Vienna, Austria, this week, prospects for the global economy are so cloudy, analysts say, there is not much left for OPEC to do.

The oil producers are not alone in their plight. Around the world, and especially in the US, the problem of planning for the unknowable is upsetting the decisions of consumers, businesses and investors. That is hampering an economy struggling to better last year's meager growth, weighing on stock prices and subduing consumer spending.

Oil is a significant component of all those calculations. Crude oil prices have hit their highest levels since the Persian Gulf War of 1991, and S&P's estimates that high energy prices have cost the economy US$50 billion in consumer purchasing power, or 0.5 percentage point of growth, just since last fall. The Energy Department predicts that by April, consumers will be paying record-high prices for gasoline in much of the US.

In any effort to assess how prices will move -- and how the economy will react -- the echoes of history are inescapable. Just like in the fall of 1990, the massing of American troops near Iraq and fears that oil supplies from the Persian Gulf will be disrupted have pushed the price of oil well above US$30 a barrel for weeks.

But moste similarities end there, according to industry analysts. While few experts expect a war to lead to shortages of oil, most doubt there will be a replay of the events of the Gulf War.

Most analysts say that key indicators of the oil industry's health -- notably low inventories of oil and petroleum products at American refineries -- suggest that prices will remain steep regardless of military action.

A year-long series of production cuts by OPEC last year gradually reduced global oil supplies as world economies were growing stronger. Then a strike in Venezuela stripped 4 percent of the world's oil supply from the market. So the balance between supply and demand is much tighter than it was on the eve of the Gulf War.

Today, a war in Iraq would remove about 2 million barrels of oil a day from the market, analysts estimate. Some believe that OPEC, which does not disclose its production, has the spare capacity -- concentrated in Saudi Arabia -- to replace that oil. Others say they think the cartel's members are already pumping at full capacity, both in an effort to keep prices from spiraling even higher, at the risk of stifling demand, and to take advantage of the unusually high prices.

Ultimately, the price of oil will likely swing with the progress of a war, analysts say.