West split by diplomatic war ahead of UN Iraq vote

www.alertnet.org NEWSDESK   10 Mar 2003 01:45 (Adds British cabinet minister threatens to quit) By Arshad Mohammed and Dominic Evans

WASHINGTON/BAGHDAD, March 9 (Reuters) - The diplomatic battle dividing the West intensified on Sunday as each side tried to woo wavering Security Council members into its camp before a U.N. vote on war in Iraq.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the United States had a "strong chance" of getting nine or 10 states in the 15-member Council to vote for a U.S.-backed draft resolution setting a March 17 deadline for Iraq to disarm but he would not be surprised if France blocked it with a veto.

Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain, Washington's closest ally, lobbied foreign leaders by telephone on Sunday, among them Chinese President Jiang Zemin, China's official media said. Powell and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice were poised to travel to press the case in person.

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin was about to embark on a whistle-stop tour of Guinea, Cameroon and Angola, "swing voters" in the Security Council, in the hope of persuading them to reject the U.S. draft.

"I would not be surprised if they (France) vetoed, because they have been pretty clear that they want to stop that resolution," Powell told "Fox News Sunday."

"Right now I would expect the French to do everything they can to stop it, including possible use of the veto, although they haven't used the veto word."

A defeat of the resolution alone is unlikely to avert war. Washington says it will lead a "coalition of the willing" into Iraq without U.N. approval if necessary, and more than 200,000 U.S. and British troops are in the region, ready to strike.

U.N. AUTHORISATION HAS HUGE VALUE FOR BLAIR

But U.N. authorisation would be of huge value to governments of U.S. allies in placating public misgivings -- especially in Britain, whose deployment of 45,000 troops is by far the biggest after the Pentagon's.

Most Britons would support war if it had U.N. backing but only 15 percent would do so without, a poll indicated on Sunday. Blair faced a home front revolt in his Labour Party, with one cabinet minister publicly threatening to quit over the issue.

International Development Secretary Clare Short, describing Blair as "reckless", said she would resign if there was no second United Nations' resolution for invasion.

Her public threat, confirming months of rumours, came as one junior government member resigned his post amid speculation four others could follow. Labour is now facing its biggest internal rift since it came to power in 1997.

A Security Council resolution needs a minimum nine votes for adoption and there must be no veto by any of the five permanent members: the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

Russia and China join France in opposing any resolution implicitly or explicitly authorising war. But U.S. and British officials say a vetoed majority would be a moral victory.

"I think we have ... a strong chance ... that we might get the nine or 10 votes needed for passage of the resolution, and we'll see if somebody wants to veto it," Powell said.

The United States so far has the declared support of only Britain, Spain and Bulgaria. Six members seem to oppose it, instead wanting arms inspectors to have more time in Iraq.

An Iraqi official surprised a news conference in Baghdad on Sunday by saying chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix might visit Baghdad on the deadline day. "I don't know really, but he might, he might visit us on the 17th of this month," General Hussam Mohammad Amin said without elaborating.

Ewen Buchanan, a spokesman for Blix, said: "I am not aware at this point of any official invitation for Mr Blix to go to Baghdad. And if there were an invitation we would study it to see what would be the purpose of such a visit and what would be gained if anything."

A delegation of Arab foreign ministers will go to Baghdad within two days for talks aimed at averting war.

U.S. promises of economic aid to impoverished swing vote states may yet prove more tempting than political argument.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Sunday backed France's call for heads of state to attend the vote. Powell has said he sees no need for President George W. Bush to be there.

The vote could come on Tuesday or later. Driving the diplomatic pace is the military's desire to attack before soaring early summer temperatures in the Gulf make fighting in chemical and biological protection suits especially arduous.

U.S. COMMANDERS MAY DELAY WAR

But analysts say U.S. commanders may delay war until April 1 as Turkey's reluctance to be a conduit for Western forces means they must plan another way to occupy northern Iraq -- and because early April offers a moonless sky for aerial bombing.

Iraq said on Sunday U.S. and British warplanes attacked targets south of the country over the weekend and hit civilian areas, but reported no casualties.

U.N. military observers on the Iraq-Kuwait border said they were withdrawing some staff to Kuwait City for their own safety. The U.S. military had said on Saturday warplanes on U.S.-British air patrols attacked an Iraqi mobile radar system in a southern "no-fly" zone.

Gates wide enough to allow a column of tanks to pass are being installed in the fence between Kuwait and Iraq.

While Kuwait is the main launchpad for a ground invasion, Iraq's Arab neighbours are quietly playing roles they prefer not to advertise to publics strongly opposed to war.

American and British special forces are already mounting missions in western Iraq, using eastern Jordan as a base. Jordan has allowed an Iraqi opposition group, the Iraqi National Accord, to set up its main base on its soil.

Saudi Arabia said it was allowing U.S. troops to use airfields near the Iraq border, but only for defence or to prepare for a flood of refugees.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said Saudi Arabia would not shelter Iraqi President Saddam Hussein if he chose exile to avert invasion.

Up to 800,000 people gathered in Indonesia's second city, Surabaya, on Sunday to pray for peace. Thousands protested against war in Damascus.

Former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, winner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize, said in a New York Times opinion piece that Iraq did not directly threaten U.S. security and a unilateral U.S. attack would not meet standards for a "just war".

An attack, however, could destabilise the region, fuel terrorism directed at the United States and undermine the United Nations, he said.

Iraq scrapped more banned missiles on Sunday in a process Bush has dismissed as a "wilful charade," accusing it of covertly making more al-Samouds.