After four months of negotiations, no end in sight to Venezuela's crisis

www.sfgate.com FABIOLA SANCHEZ, Associated Press Writer Saturday, March 8, 2003
(03-08) 05:07 PST CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) --

After four months of talks, negotiators said this week they have little to show for their efforts to end a bitter political stalemate between President Hugo Chavez and Venezuela's opposition.

The Organization of American States and other mediators have so far failed to get the two sides to agree on the new elections sought by the opposition or to convince the political rivals to curb their harsh rhetoric.

The slayings of three dissident military officers in mid-February, the Feb. 18 arrest of opposition leader Carlos Fernandez and bomb blasts outside Spanish and Colombian diplomatic missions last week have further complicated the impasse.

Each side blames the other for the incidents, which have raised tensions in the South American nation of 24 million, a major oil supplier to the United States.

OAS secretary general Cesar Gaviria has sought to prevent a full-fledged confrontation like the street violence that rocked Caracas in April.

Opposition leaders say Chavez's leftist rhetoric and authoritarian policies have weakened the country's institutions and scared away investors. They briefly ousted Chavez in a coup following the April violence, but loyalists returned him to power two days later.

Opponents tried again to topple him by organizing a two month general strike. That effort collapsed Feb. 4 with Chavez still in power. Since then, his government has arrested strike organizers.

Meanwhile, opponents have been locked in negotiations with the government, trying to get Chavez to call a new election.

Although the negotiations have lacked any substantial advancements, said Nicolas Maduro, one of six government representatives at the talks, they have served as a "containment mechanism "to regulate the Venezuelan political conflict."

Proposals to end the conflict by former President Jimmy Carter and the creation of the "Group of Friends," a forum of six nations backing negotiation efforts, failed to give impetus to the talks.

The talks have lacked "rapid advancement," acknowledged Maduro.

Government adversaries have put "obstacles" in the way of progress because they aren't "playing their cards in favor of a democratic ... pact," said Maduro.

The opposition continues insisting on ousting Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000 to a six-year term, as soon as possible, Maduro said.

Juan Rafalli, an opposition representative, blamed the lack of progress on the government, "which hasn't shown any type of political will" to agree on an electoral solution to the crisis.

Rafalli expressed optimism that Venezuela's wrenching economic downturn, coupled with the deepening political crisis, will force Chavez's government to negotiate an agreement soon.

Venezuela's economy shrank by nearly 9 percent in 2002 and analysts predict and even more abrupt contraction this year. According to official government statistics, unemployment stands at 17 percent.

Chavez, a former paratrooper, has balked at opposition demands for early elections. He insists that opponents must wait until August, when the constitution allows for a binding recall referendum on his rule.

During a recent speech, Chavez warned Gaviria, along with the governments of Spain and the United States, "not to meddle" in Venezuela's domestic affairs.

Maduro denied that Chavez's fiery rhetoric and warnings to foreign governments are aimed at dissolving the "Friends" initiative or pressuring Gaviria into abandoning his role as mediator of the talks.

The warnings were meant "to clarify our position," he said.

Delegates from the United States, Spain, Portugal, Mexico, Brazil and Chile -- the nations making up the so-called "Group of Friends -- are slated to meet in Brasilia, Brazil on March 10 to discuss progress of the talks and escalating violence in Venezuela.