Oil not driving threats of war

www.activedayton.com A Dayton Daily News Editorial

The recent spike in gasoline prices seems not to have been met with as much skepticism as past spikes. This time, drivers, and especially hard-hit truckers, are irritated, but Americans seem to be assuming that the current problem is related to the looming war in oil country.

In fact, the recent hikes probably have as much to do with the problems of Venezuela as those of Iraq. Venezuela is a huge contributor to the pool (so to speak) of oil from which this country draws. And it has experienced a devastating oil strike.

Every time there's a spike in oil prices, there's a chorus that (rightly) says this country needs to be more serious about lessening its dependence on international oil. Since the major oil shortages and price hikes of the 1970s — a time when the nation's leadership talked a lot about the need to change our ways — progress has been minimal. Our use of foreign oil has shrunk as a percentage of our national wealth, but not in real terms.

In truth, though, the United States is not as dependent as many other modern countries, because it does have some oil of its own. Japan and Europe, for instance, are far more reliant on Mideast oil.

That's a fact that should be kept in mind by those who insist that the looming war is fundamentally about Iraqi oil. If that were true, European governments presumably would be more favorably disposed to the war than Washington.

The United States does need oil to flow freely, of course. But if Washington and London were single-minded about that, they would be finding a way to get along with Saddam Hussein, so as to get Iraqi oil.

No matter how independent this country might become of Mideast oil, Washington will still have to worry about oil flowing freely, because the United States needs healthy trading partners abroad to buy our goods. And our trading partners will continue to need that oil for a long time.

The United States can and should move in the direction of energy independence. But it should do so soberly, with its eyes open. True, American dependence on oil has done much to shape the modern Mideast and its governments. But a greater degree of American independence now would not change the current situation in Iraq much or greatly lessen American interests in the Mideast.

[From the Dayton Daily News: 03.08.2003]