Africa  OPEC  Nigerian April crude output set to stay high-trade

www.forbes.com Reuters, 03.07.03, 7:32 AM ET By Barbara Lewis LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Nigerian oil production will be at least as high in April as in March, with the tally for both months expected to be near 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), well above its official OPEC quota, traders said on Friday. Dealers said that they were still piecing together newly-issued April loading programmes, but it appeared that there would again be an abundant supply of crude. "Definitely there is at least as much crude as in March and April is a slightly shorter month," said one trader. "In all there will be about 2.3 million barrels per day, possibly more." "We don't have the complete picture, but I would think that levels will be at least as high as in March," said another. Traders have said Nigerian oil production has risen by some 200,000 bpd following the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decision in January to step up production. At roughly 2.3 million bpd, Nigeria's estimated output is in excess of its February 1 OPEC quota of 2.0 million bpd, with production boosted by new oil coming onstream.

NEW FIELDS Exxon's Yoho field, which produced three cargoes in March, is scheduled to pump another three in April, amounting to close to 100,000 bpd, dealers said. Exxon Mobil Corp in February announced it had started production from the Yoho development offshore Nigeria, which has recoverable reserves of about 400 million barrels of a crude somewhere between Qua Iboe and Brass River in quality. Royal Dutch/Shell's new EA field has come onstream more slowly, with only one cargo traded so far since first oil was achieved on December 14. Dealers said they had not yet seen an April programme for EA, though it was possible there would be one cargo. Shell has said the field would eventually increase Nigeria's oil production capacity by some 140,000 bpd, but a spokeswoman said she was awaiting information and could not yet comment on production. Dealers are also waiting for Agip's new Abo field to begin producing, with the first cargo expected in May, traders said, while TotalFinaElf is scheduled to start production from its 125,000 bpd Amenam field around June. Precise monitoring of the size of Nigeria's crude loading programme is notoriously difficult as extra cargoes are issued after the formal schedule. The consensus in the market, however, is that Nigeria is pumping almost as much as it can in the current climate where West African crudes are seen as a safer alternative to Middle Eastern barrels. Operators are also keen to justify high start-up costs, traders say. OPEC agreed in January to raise production by seven percent to stave off an oil price shock threatened by the strike in Venezuela and a possible war in Iraq. The cartel meets again next week, with some member countries favouring a de facto temporary suspension of quotas should a war in Iraq shut in Baghdad's exports, a loss that would test the 11-member group's capacity limits. Nigerian Presidential Adviser on Petroleum and Energy Rilwanu Lukman said in February Nigeria could quickly raise its output to 2.5 million bpd if necessary.