Saudi/OPEC/Capacity: OPEC Now Above 24.5M B/D Pledge
sg.biz.yahoo.com Thursday March 6, 3:39 PM By David Bird Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Saudi Arabia has told Western government and oil officials that the kingdom's crude oil output has reached its limit at around 9.2 million barrels a day and won't rise further, even with a war looming in Iraq, Dow Jones Newswires has learned.
According to Western officials who have spoken with Saudi officials in recent days, there is an understanding that because Saudi output can't rise further, a release of oil from consumer governments' emergency stockpiles is inevitable, if and when, a U.S.-led war is launched on Iraq.
One Saudi Arabian oil ministry official refused to comment on what the Western sources said, and others were unavailable for comment.
Saudi Arabia has maintained that it has about 10.5 million b/d of oil production capacity and that output could be raised to that level within weeks or months, after considerable investment. But the Saudis haven't pumped at that level in more than a decade.
However, top Saudi officials have let it be known in recent days that they don't intend to take steps to push output to that level, because they don't think the oil will be needed.
The Western officials said the Saudis have expressed the view that the release of oil from consumer stockpiles held by member nations of the International Energy Agency, and already high output from other OPEC members, will be sufficient to cool soaring oil prices, to meet demand and to top-up low global inventories.
The Saudis also have expressed the view that any U.S.-led war on Iraq would be relatively brief and isn't expected to disrupt operations in neighboring oil exporting countries.
Prices Now Hyper-Inflated
The Saudis, and others in OPEC, have said that current oil prices, which soared to $39.99 a barrel last week in the U.S. - the highest level since autumn 1990 - are hyper-inflated by war fears.
They say prices will return to more normal levels once the Iraqi situation becomes clear.
Still, a brief price spike into the mid-$40 level, topping the 1990-91 Gulf Crisis high of $41.15 is expected if war breaks out.
In January 1991, when the IEA offered 2.5 million b/d of oil from strategic stocks, crude oil futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by one-third, or more than $10.50 a barrel, in the biggest-ever single-day price decline.
OPEC is set to meet On March 11 in Vienna to review output policy. It is expected to agree to suspend output restraints in the event of a war.
But, in practice, due to rampant quota-busting in response to sky-high prices, OPEC already has dropped restraints and is essentially pumping at maximum levels.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi has repeatedly pledged in recent weeks that the kingdom, and other OPEC members, will ensure adequate supply to the market and produce at the group's 24.5 million b/d output ceiling, despite strike-related output problems in Venezuela.
The 24.5 million b/d level, matches on average, the expected demand for oil from OPEC and movements from stocks in the first half of 2003.
Industry surveys have put February output by OPEC's 10 members, excluding Iraq, at above the 24.5 million b/d level in the month, even with Saudi output estimated below 9 million b/d.
Dow Jones Newswires' survey, published Tuesday, put OPEC-10 February output at 24.701 million b/d, with the Saudis estimated at 8.733 million b/d in the month. The Kingdom's official quota now stands at just below 8 million b/d.
Venezuelan officials maintain that the country's crippled oil production is back over 2 million b/d and rising, while independent estimates and those from dissident workers who led the strike at the state oil company, put the figure at below 1.7 million b/d.
In any case, the recovery in the past several weeks in Venezuela's output is helping offset the need for more oil from others in OPEC.
Western officials note that standard industry practice requires producers to keep about 10% of output capacity idle to ensure operational flexibility, and on this basis, too, the Saudis don't find it possible to go beyond output of about 9.2 million b/d.
The Saudis also don't want to make the investment to maintain output readiness at 10.5 million b/d only to have to keep output well below that level, the Western officials said.
No Significant OPEC Output Hike
Apart from a potential uptick from Venezuela and a slight gain of no more than 200,000 b/d from the UAE, OPEC's output won't rise much with the start of a war, the Western officials said.
Kuwait has said that, as a precaution, it will shut in about one-third of its output, or around 700,000 b/d with the start of a war. But the officials said this is expected to be off-line only briefly during the first days or weeks of a war.
The Western officials said that while Saudi Arabia has expressed strong support for reining-in runaway oil prices, there is also concern about a considerable drop-off in oil demand in the second quarter 2003.
The IEA, in its February oil report, forecasts that demand for OPEC oil and required movements from inventories will fall by 2 million b/d with the end of the high-demand winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.
As reported, Naimi met Wednesday in Riyadh with the new head of the IEA, Claude Mandil, and pledged to keep oil markets supplied in the event of war in Iraq.
In the meeting, Mandil welcomed the commitment from OPEC to meet "any further loss of supplies to oil markets in a swift and timely manner," IEA said in a statement.
The IEA, which holds huge reserves of oil in emergency stockpiles, is committed and prepared "to respond convincingly to any loss of oil supplies by making additional oil available to the market when needed," Mandil said.
According to the official Saudi Press Agency, Naimi said the two discussed "the importance and the role of OPEC, in general, and Saudi Arabia, in particular, to make up any shortage in the oil supply as a result of discontinuation of oil production of any country for any reasons."
"In this situation, IEA agreed with OPEC opinion that the producers should utilize their spare capacity before resorting to the oil available in the strategic reserves by consumers," the SPA report said.
The IEA statement doesn't refer to any agreement or understanding that OPEC would use its spare capacity before consumer countries would open their reserves.
The agency said after a Feb. 20 Paris meeting of its governing board that it would open its reserves to supplement OPEC's efforts if needed.
IEA Can Provide Near 13M B/D
Member countries of the IEA, which is the oil-market watchdog of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, hold about 4 billion barrels worth of crude and petroleum products in government and industry stockpiles.
This is enough to cover 115 days of their total net imports.
In the January 1991 Gulf War, the IEA activated a plan to release 2.5 million b/d of oil into the market, with 45% of that coming from the U.S.
IEA countries can release about 13 million b/d of stocks from strategic reserves, hugely in excess of Iraq's current output of around 2.4 million b/d.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, at a record level of just under 600 million barrels, is the single biggest chunk of this reserve inventory.
-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4423; david.bird@dowjones.com
-Edited by Simon Hall